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Home ยป Predictions ยป Liverpool x Bournemouth Betting tips for September 21 in England Premier League
Saturday, 21 September 2024, 11h00 England Premier League
Liverpool Liverpool
PREDICTION Liverpool wins Probability 95% 1 X 2
Bournemouth Bournemouth
ODD: @1.31 Don't miss this prediction!

Liverpool x Bournemouth Betting tips for September 21 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Liverpool x Bournemouth, Saturday, 21/9/2024
๐Ÿ“… 21/9/2024
11:00
Liverpool Liverpool
1.31
X
5.87
Bournemouth Bournemouth
8.39

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Liverpool x Bournemouth:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Liverpool wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Liverpool, you can win up to $655.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

Some important points for the tip for Liverpool x Bournemouth:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Bournemouth in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-255.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team against Bournemouth, Liverpool scored at least 2 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 6 Liverpool matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Liverpool x Bournemouth, with Liverpool as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the away team, Bournemouth conceded at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ Liverpool has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Bournemouth.

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Summary

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Analysis from Liverpool x Bournemouth for the England Premier League – 21 of September

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Liverpool X Bournemouth – England Premier League
๐Ÿ“… 21 of September, 2024 – 11:00
๐Ÿ”ต Liverpool – Winning probability: 95.35% | Fair line: 1.05
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 3.20% | Fair line: 31.29
๐Ÿ”ด Bournemouth – Winning probability: 1.46% | Fair line: 68.7
โš– Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Liverpool
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Liverpool x Bournemouth right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1184423 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Liverpool x Bournemouth

Is betting on Liverpool worth it?

๐Ÿ”ต Liverpool: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 95.35%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.31. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 950 times – profiting $294.50;
  • And would lose other 50 times – having a loss of -$50.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$244.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

โšช draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 3.2% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.87. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 30 times – profiting $146.10;
  • And would have lost other 970 times – with a loss of -$970.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$823.90.

Is betting on Bournemouth worth it?

๐Ÿ”ด Bournemouth: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 1.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.39. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 10 times – this would give you a profit of $73.90
  • And would lose other 990 times – having a loss of -$990.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$916.10.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Liverpool x Bournemouth

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

โš– Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Liverpool
โšฝ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Liverpool x Bournemouth

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 Liverpool and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.5 Liverpool.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.5 Liverpool.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Liverpool x Bournemouth

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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