Manchester City x Sunderland Betting tips for December 6 in England Premier League
| 📅 6/12/2025 15:00 |
 Manchester City1.25 |
X 6.00 |
Sunderland  11.00 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Manchester City x Sunderland:
👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Manchester City x Sunderland
Important information for your tip for Manchester City x Sunderland:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Manchester City in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $103.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sunderland in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $625.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Sunderland, Manchester City scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Manchester City x Sunderland, with Manchester City as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Sunderland conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Manchester City conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Sunderland.
👉 Manchester City has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Sunderland playing at home.
🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Manchester City vs Sunderland?
Lets analyze the match between Manchester City and Sunderland at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester Citys home ground, which has a very strong recent record at home. In the last 5 home games, City scored an average of 2.6 goals per game (13 goals in 5 games) and conceded few (1.2 goals per game). Additionally, they won 4 of these games and lost only 1, showing great offensive dominance and solid defense.
On the other hand, Sunderland has a more modest away performance: averaging 0.8 goals in the last 5 away games and conceding about 1 goal per match. The visiting team also has less ball possession (38% vs. 53% for City) and fewer accurate shots on goal (4 vs. 8 for City), indicating they are likely to face significant offensive pressure.
The median odds indicate clear favoritism for Manchester City with odds close to 1.25 for the home team’s victory, while a draw is priced at about 5.8 and Sunderland’s win at impressive odds around 11-12.
Calculating the implied probabilities from the median odds gives us:
- Manchester City win: ~80%
- Draw: ~17%
- Sunderland win: ~9%
Adjusting for the sum to equal one after normalization due to house margins, we get approximate fair probabilities.
Qualitative analysis:
- Manchester City: Is on a winning streak with important recent victories, including exciting matches like the win over Fulham with five goals scored; features decisive players like Haaland celebrating his 100th Premier League goal; and maintains full focus on the season despite market movements;
- Sunderland: Despite an impressive campaign so far – the best score ever for a newly promoted team – faces natural difficulties away from home against strong teams like Manchester City;
Based on this, my fair estimate for the probabilities would be approximately:
- Manchester City Win: ~82%
- Draw: ~13%
- Sunderland Win: ~5%
This results in approximate fair odds of:
- City – Fair Odds GPT: ≈1.22
- Draw – Fair Odds GPT: ≈7.7
- Sunderland – Fair Odds GPT: ≈20
Comparing with the final odds, betting on Manchester City still offers a significant positive expected value (+15%), while a draw or an away win does not present a relevant positive expected value.
📈 Positional Analysis in the Table:The dominant position of Manchester City reinforces their clear need for victory to maintain leadership or fight for the title at this crucial stage of the Premier League — this further increases their motivation in this matchup.
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Sunderland has been surprising but remains limited when playing away, especially against strong opponents like this ManCity.
Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Manchester City x Sunderland?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Manchester City x Sunderland, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Manchester City x Sunderland for the England Premier League – 6 of December
🏟️ Manchester City X Sunderland – England Premier League
📅 6 of December, 2025 – 15:00
🔵 Manchester City – Winning probability: 80.38% | Fair line: 1.24
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 12.55% | Fair line: 7.97
🔴 Sunderland – Winning probability: 7.07% | Fair line: 14.14
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Manchester City
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Manchester City x Sunderland right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449132 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Latest news on Manchester City x Sunderland
Manchester City: Manchester City kept their title chase alive with a dramatic 5-4 victory over Fulham at Craven Cottage on December 2, 2025, where Erling Haaland celebrated his 100th Premier League goal and Phil Foden scored twice, while Josko Gvardiols last-minute defense preserved the lead. The next day, the team secured a 3-2 win over Leeds United, with another outstanding performance from Foden. Off the pitch, the club is linked to several transfer market movements – Elliot Anderson is considered a priority for Pep Guardiola, a £65 million clause for Bournemouths Antoine Semenyo is being evaluated, James Trafford might be a likely departure in January, Bernardo Silva has declared focus on the season but may leave the club next summer, John Stones future remains uncertain, Stefan Ortega dropped to third goalkeeper after Gianluigi Donnarumma and Traffords arrivals, and right-back Kristoffer Krafth signed a new contract keeping him at the club until the end of the 2025/26 season.
Sunderland: Sunderland is enjoying an unprecedented start to the Premier League season, accumulating 23 points in 13 games – the best points tally for a newly promoted team since Wigans 25 points in 2005/06 – after beating Chelsea and drawing with Arsenal and Liverpool, including a resilient performance at Anfield where they outperformed the hosts in tackles and interceptions. The club also confirmed that seven of its players called up for the African Nations Cup will be retained for the upcoming Tyne-Wear derby against Newcastle. Recent highlights include Chemsdine Talbis long-range goal and Trai Humes near-miss in Liverpool, highlighting Sunderlands rapid rise and strong defensive organization as they seek to maintain momentum in English footballs top tier.
Table analysis for the game between Manchester City and Sunderland
Manchester City: Manchester City is in 2nd place in the Premier League with 28 points, just 5 points behind the leader Arsenal, but ahead of the 3rd place by 1 point. With their Champions League spot still not secured, this game is very important to keep pressure at the top of the table and prevent Arsenal from pulling away. Additionally, considering the seasons stage, beating Sunderland is vital to stay strong in the title race and secure a direct spot in the Champions League.
Sunderland: Sunderland is in 6th place with 23 points, in the UEFA Europa League qualification zone, but only 1 point ahead of 7th place Brighton. This match is crucial for them to maintain this position and move further up the table, securing a spot in international competitions. With a tight race for European qualification, Sunderland cannot slip up against Manchester City if they want to dream of a guaranteed place in the next Europa League.
Summary: Extremely important game for both teams: Manchester City fights to avoid losing second place and stay in the title race, while Sunderland seeks to consolidate their spot in European competitions. A match that promises to be competitive and decisive for both teams ambitions. ⚽🔥
Tips for the 1×2 market for Manchester City x Sunderland
Is betting on Manchester City worth it?
🔵 Manchester City: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 80.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 800 times – profiting $200.00;
- And would lose other 200 times – losing -$200.00 with them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$0.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 12.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – profiting $650.00;
- And would have lost other 870 times – with a loss of -$870.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$220.00.
Is it worth betting on Sunderland?
🔴 Sunderland: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 11.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 70 times – profiting $700.00;
- And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$230.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Manchester City x Sunderland
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Manchester City
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Manchester City x Sunderland
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 Manchester City and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.75 Manchester City.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Manchester City x Sunderland
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
