Newcastle x Aston Villa Betting tips for December 26 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Aston Villa, Thursday, 26/12/2024

📅 26/12/2024 15:00

Newcastle 1.95

X 3.75

Aston Villa 3.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Newcastle x Aston Villa:

🔮 Newcastle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Newcastle, you can win up to $975.00!

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The main points for the tip for Newcastle x Aston Villa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $150.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-262.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Newcastle scored at least 3 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Aston Villa, Newcastle scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Newcastle matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 Aston Villa matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Newcastle x Aston Villa, with Newcastle as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Aston Villa conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Newcastle has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Aston Villa playing at home.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Newcastle x Aston Villa?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2024. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Newcastle x Aston Villa for the England Premier League – 26 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Newcastle x Aston Villa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1239928 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Newcastle x Aston Villa

Is betting on Newcastle worth it?

🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 55.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 550 times – profiting $522.50;
• And would lose other 450 times – losing -$450.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$72.50.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.01%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $605.00;
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$175.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Aston Villa?

🔴 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.73% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 230 times – having a profit of $575.00;
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$195.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Aston Villa

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Aston Villa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Newcastle and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Newcastle.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Newcastle.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Aston Villa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.