Newcastle x Brentford Betting tips for February 7 in England Premier League
| 📅 7/2/2026 17:30 |
 Newcastle1.79 |
X 3.70 |
Brentford  4.00 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Newcastle x Brentford:
🔮 Brentford wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Brentford, you can win up to $2000.00!
Important information for your tip for Newcastle x Brentford:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-194.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Brentford in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $467.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Brentford, Newcastle scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Brentford matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Newcastle has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Brentford playing at home.
🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Newcastle vs Brentford:
⚽ The match between Newcastle and Brentford promises to be quite competitive at St. James Park, Newcastles traditional stadium, which has a passionate crowd and a capacity of about 53,000 fans. Newcastle has a recent home record with a high average of goals scored (3.4 goals in the last 5 home games) but also concedes many goals (3.2 conceded), showing an offensive team but vulnerable defensively. Brentford, on the other hand, performs well away from home with an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded in the last five away games.
📈 The league table indicates that Brentford is in a comfortable position, aiming to get closer to the top spots, while Newcastle faces recent challenges including key injuries and fatigue from European competitions. This could impact the teams motivation and physical strength for this match.
📰 News supports this analysis: Newcastle is dealing with serious injuries to key players like Fabian Schar and Jamal Lascelles, plus a heavy defeat to Manchester City in the Carabao Cup that affected the teams defensive morale; Brentford, however, is on a winning streak with important victories against strong opponents like Aston Villa, showing tactical consistency even when playing away.
Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers (1.77 for Newcastle win; 3.75 for draw; 4.2 for Brentford win), we get approximate normalized implied probabilities: Newcastle win ~52%, draw ~24%, Brentford win ~24%. Considering recent offensive/defensive stats adjusted for current physical condition due to injuries and the tight schedule of Newcastle, I would estimate fair probabilities close to these but perhaps slightly more favorable to a draw or even a small chance for Brentford due to the defensive fragility of the hosts.
Calculating the expected value of the final odds given (2.05 home / 3.5 draw / 3.4 away) against my adjusted probabilities, I see little positive value in traditional bets — especially since the Bets Kenya model also does not identify positive value in the suggested bets (-2% EV at best). Therefore, my advice is caution: avoid heavy betting on a direct victory of either side without considering alternative markets or Asian handicap where there might be more value given the scenarios presented.
Conclusion: Despite the historical strength and home advantage at St. James’ Park favoring Newcastle slightly 🏟️⚫⚪, the absences due to injuries combined with Brentfords recent good form make this match quite balanced ⚖️. The Bets Kenya model is consistent in not indicating a clear bet with positive expected value here — I agree! Better to wait for better opportunities or explore alternative markets before this game.
Looking for another bookie to bet on Newcastle x Brentford?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Newcastle x Brentford, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Newcastle x Brentford for the England Premier League – 7 of February
🏟️ Newcastle X Brentford – England Premier League
📅 7 of February, 2026 – 17:30
🔵 Newcastle – Winning probability: 41.83% | Fair line: 2.39
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 23.73% | Fair line: 4.21
🔴 Brentford – Winning probability: 34.43% | Fair line: 2.9
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
The latest news about Newcastle x Brentford
Newcastle United: Newcastle United recently suffered a heavy 3-1 defeat to Manchester City in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, leaving a 5-1 aggregate deficit, which led coach Eddie Howe to express disappointment with the score and the teams defensive errors; the club also confirmed a series of injuries that leave key figures like Fabian Schar, Tino Livramento, Jacob Murphy, Emil Krafth, and Jamal Lascelles unavailable, while midfielder Bruno suffered an ankle problem after a head clash in the victory over PSV and forward Anthony Gordon had to leave early in the match against City. Despite media speculation about Sandro Tonalis future, Howe assured that the midfielder remains happy and focused; in European competition, Newcastle was drawn to face Qarabag in the Champions League qualifying playoff, with the first leg scheduled for 17-18 February in Azerbaijan and the return on 24-25 February at St James’ Park, fitting into an already congested February that includes Premier League matches against Manchester City on 21 February and Everton on 28 February.
Brentford: Brentford secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Aston Villa at Villa Park on 1 February 2026, with Dango Ouattara scoring shortly after Kevin Schade was sent off for a kick on Matty Cash; the victory marked Brentfords third league win over Villa this season and moved them into seventh place, four points behind Chelsea, who are in fifth. A controversy with VAR after the match resulted in the disallowance of Tammy Abrahams equalizer after Brentford released footage confirming the ball crossed the line before being put back into play.
Table analysis for the match between Newcastle and Brentford
Newcastle: Newcastle is in 11th place with 33 points, just 3 points behind Brentford, which is in 7th place with 36 points. The team is in an intermediate position on the table and can still fight to secure a spot in European competitions, especially the UEFA Europa League, which is in 5th place with 40 points. With the championship ongoing and the positions still relatively close, this match against Brentford is important for Newcastle to try to close the gap to the top group and improve their position on the table. It is a game with a direct impact on the fight to stay among the top 6.
Brentford: Brentford is in 7th place with 36 points, just ahead of Newcastle, their direct opponent, with 3 more points. The team is close to qualifying for European competitions, making this match crucial to maintain or even increase this advantage over direct competitors like Newcastle, Sunderland (8th with 36 points), and other nearby teams. A positive result in this game helps Brentford stay firm in the fight for a European spot, making this match quite important for their ambitions this season.
Summary: The game between Newcastle and Brentford is important for both teams, as they are both in a direct contest for positions on the table that could lead to qualification for European competitions. It is a highly relevant matchup for the final league standings.
Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Newcastle x Brentford
It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Newcastle x Brentford.
Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 The odds for Newcastle had a huge Raised of 26.05%: the market opened with odds of @1.666 for Newcastle and now the odds are @2.1.
📊 The odds for Draw had a slight Decreased of -5.41%: the market opened with odds of @3.7 for Draw and now the odds are @3.5.
📊 The odds for Brentford had a huge Decreased of -26.32%: the market opened with odds of @4.75 for Brentford and now the odds are @3.5.
📊 The market decreased home team´s favoritism: the handicap that opened at -0.75 is now at -0.25 for Newcastle.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 2.75 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the 1×2 market for Newcastle x Brentford
When the best bet on Newcastle x Brentford is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1475440 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Is it a good idea to bet on Newcastle?
🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 41.83%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.79. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 420 times – profiting $331.80;
- And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$248.20.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 240 times – profiting $648.00;
- And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$112.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Brentford?
🔴 Brentford: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 34.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 340 times – this would give you a profit of $1020.00
- And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$360.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Brentford
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Brentford
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Newcastle and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Newcastle.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Brentford.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Brentford
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Newcastle x Brentford
Which team is the favourite in Newcastle x Brentford?
According to our analysis, the favourite for this match is Newcastle, with a win probability of 41.83%. However, keep in mind that in football anything can happen!
Who will win: Newcastle or Brentford?
There are no absolutes in sports betting. Still, our model suggests Newcastle has the better chance to win, with a probability of 41.83%. If you choose to back Newcastle, do so responsibly!
What are the chances of Newcastle beating Brentford today?
According to our analysis, out of every 100 games we expect Newcastle to win approximately 42 of them against Brentford.
What are the chances of Brentford beating Newcastle today?
According to our analysis, out of every 100 games we expect Brentford to win approximately 34 of them against Newcastle.
Which team should I bet on: Newcastle or Brentford?
A good bettor always searches for positive expected value bets. Our analysis suggests: Brentford Wins as the best pick, with EV of 20.69%. Bet responsibly and practice sound bankroll management: keep stakes under 2% of your capital!
How much is Newcastle paying today? See what you can win by betting on Newcastle x Brentford:
The odds for Newcastle to beat Brentford today are around 1.79. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh1790.00 if Newcastle wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Brentford paying today? See what you can win by betting on Newcastle x Brentford:
The odds for Brentford to beat Newcastle today are around 4.00. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh4000.00 if Brentford wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
