Newcastle x Burnley Betting tips for December 6 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Burnley, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 15:00

Newcastle 1.27

X 5.55

Burnley 10.00

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Newcastle x Burnley:

🔮 Newcastle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Newcastle, you can win up to $635.00!

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The main points for the tip for Newcastle x Burnley:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $314.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Burnley in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-80.0.
👉 In the last 9 matches as the home team, Newcastle scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Burnley scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Newcastle x Burnley, with Newcastle as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 Burnley matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Burnley conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 Newcastle has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Burnley playing at home.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Newcastle vs Burnley?

Lets analyze the match between Newcastle and Burnley at St. James Park, an iconic stadium and home of Newcastle, which certainly gives an advantage to the Magpies. 🏟️

📈 Newcastle has been showing strength at home with 4 wins and only 1 draw in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 2 goals per game and conceding only 0.8 goals. Meanwhile, Burnley is in a tough phase, with 4 losses and just one away win in their last five away games, conceding many goals (average of 3 per game). This clearly shows an imbalance between the teams.

The median odds indicate strong favoritism for Newcastle (1.27), with a less likely draw (5.5) and Burnley win (10.49) according to the market.

After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get approximately: Newcastle win ~74%, Draw ~17%, Burnley win ~9%. Considering recent offensive/defensive stats — especially Newcastles solid defense at home against Burnleys defensive fragility — my estimate is close to this: home_pred_gpt = 75%, draw_pred_gpt = 18%, away_pred_gpt = 7%.

Calculating fair odds based on these adjusted probabilities along with qualitative analysis of recent team form:

• Newcastle Win: Fair odds around 1.33
• Draw: Fair odds around 5.55
• Burnley Win: Fair odds around 14.3

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (1.25 for Newcastle; draw at 6; Burnley at 10), theres value in betting on the home team because the expected value is positive (~18%), confirming that betting on Newcastle is profitable according to our adjusted model.

However, I totally disagree with the extreme forecast from Bets Kenya that suggests absurdly low odds for Newcastle (~1.05) and very high for draw/away win (>24). This doesnt match the real data nor the current competitive scenario — it underestimates the opponents chances or overvalues the home team without considering nuances like possible draws or recent tactical difficulties.

Betting on a draw or Burnleys win doesnt present positive expected value here due to their poor recent form evidenced in recent news: five consecutive losses extend their crisis while facing a stronger home opponent trying to recover after losing important points recently.

📰 News supports this analysis: Newcastle invested heavily bringing Yoane Wissa for £55 million to strengthen their squad while trying to fix issues pointed out by coach Eddie Howe after drawing against Tottenham; Burnley faces a worrying negative streak under Scott Parker, trying to motivate young players but still without significant positive results.

Final suggestion:

• Recommended bet: Newcastle United win.
• No-value bet: Draw or Burnley win.
• Stay alert to the market as this is a safe bet but with moderate return due to the clear favoritism of the home team.

So, shall we bet on the Magpies power? ⚫⚪💪 #BetsKenya #PremierLeague #NewcastleVsBurnley

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Newcastle x Burnley?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Newcastle x Burnley, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Newcastle x Burnley for the England Premier League – 6 of December

When the best bet on Newcastle x Burnley is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449132 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news about Newcastle x Burnley

Newcastle United: Newcastle United recently completed the signing of Yoane Wissa after submitting a bid and securing a £55 million deal with Brentford on the last transfer day, while the potential transfer of young midfielder Will Osula to Eintracht Frankfurt did not materialize, remaining at the club; additionally, the club announced that David Hopkinson will replace CEO Darren Eales, who left due to health reasons. On the pitch, the Magpies drew 2-2 with Tottenham Hotspur at St James’ Park on December 2, 2025, with Bruno Guimarães scoring in the 71st minute and a penalty converted by Alexander Gordon in the 86th minute equalizing Cristian Romero’s goal for Spurs, a result that left Newcastle in 13th position in the Premier League, having lost 11 points when in a winning position, prompting coach Eddie Howe to acknowledge the lack of consistency that needs to be addressed to revive the team’s European ambitions.

Burnley: Burnley suffered a 0-1 home defeat against Crystal Palace on December 3, 2025, with Daniel Muñoz scoring the winning goal; coach Scott Parker praised the courage and quality of the young players despite the defeat, acknowledging they were outplayed and that the team showed bravery. The result placed Burnley in 19th position in the Premier League, extending a streak of five consecutive losses and marking the eighth defeat in their last eleven league games. A week earlier, on November 29, 2025, they were defeated 3-1 away by Brentford, with Igor Thiago scoring two goals for the visitors, and Burnley remains firmly in the relegation zone as they seek to halt their decline.

Table analysis for the match between Newcastle x Burnley

Newcastle: Newcastle is in 12th place with 19 points, in a stage of the league where every point counts to try to get closer to the qualification zone for European competitions or secure a comfortable position on the table. Just 5 points behind Chelsea in 4th place, the match against Burnley presents a great opportunity to earn three points to climb and improve their standing. Therefore, the match is quite relevant for Newcastles interests, which seeks to take advantage of every opportunity to move up the table.

Burnley: Burnley is in 19th place with 10 points and is already in the relegation zone, desperately needing points to try to get out of this difficult situation. The gap to the team just above in the table is still significant, making this match absolutely crucial for their chances of staying in the Premier League. Every point is vital to maintain hope of escaping relegation, so the game is decisive for Burnley.

Summary: The match is very important for both teams, albeit for different reasons: Newcastle aims to consolidate a more comfortable position on the table and perhaps dream of European competitions, while Burnley fights against relegation and needs points at all costs to try to save themselves. Undoubtedly, a life-or-death game for Burnley and a great opportunity for Newcastle.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Newcastle x Burnley

Is it worth betting on Newcastle?

🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 94.92%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.27. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 950 times – having a profit of $256.50;
• And would lose other 50 times – losing -$50.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$206.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 4.02%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.55. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 40 times – having a profit of $182.00;
• And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$778.00.

Is it worth betting on Burnley?

🔴 Burnley: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 1.06%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 10.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 10 times – profiting $90.00;
• And would lose other 990 times – losing -$990.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$900.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Burnley

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Burnley

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 Newcastle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Newcastle.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Burnley

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.