Newcastle x Crystal Palace Betting tips for April 16 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Crystal Palace, Wednesday, 16/4/2025

📅 16/4/2025 18:30

Newcastle 1.76

X 3.80

Crystal Palace 4.36

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Newcastle x Crystal Palace:

🔮 Newcastle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Newcastle, you can win up to $880.00!

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The main points for the tip for Newcastle x Crystal Palace: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $420.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Crystal Palace in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $275.0. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Newcastle scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Crystal Palace scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 Newcastle matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Newcastle conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Newcastle has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Crystal Palace playing at home.

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Analysis from Newcastle x Crystal Palace for the England Premier League – 16 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Newcastle x Crystal Palace right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1304980 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Newcastle x Crystal Palace

Is betting on Newcastle worth it?

🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 66.1%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.76. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 660 times – having a profit of $501.60;
• And would lose other 340 times – losing -$340.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$161.60.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.9% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $588.00;
• And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$202.00.

Should you bet on Crystal Palace?

🔴 Crystal Palace: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.99%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.36. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $436.80
• And would lose other 870 times – having a loss of -$870.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$433.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Crystal Palace

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Crystal Palace

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Newcastle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Newcastle.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Crystal Palace.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Crystal Palace

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.75 goals.