Newcastle x Crystal Palace Betting tips for January 4 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Crystal Palace, Sunday, 4/1/2026

📅 4/1/2026 15:00

Newcastle 1.80

X 3.75

Crystal Palace 4.20

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Newcastle x Crystal Palace:

🔮 Newcastle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Newcastle, you can win up to $900.00!

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The main points for the tip for Newcastle x Crystal Palace:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $155.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Crystal Palace in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $71.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Newcastle scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Crystal Palace scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Newcastle matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Newcastle conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Newcastle has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Crystal Palace playing at home.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?

Lets analyze the match between Newcastle and Crystal Palace at St. James Park, Newcastles traditional stadium, which certainly gives the Magpies a home advantage. 🏟️

📈 Newcastle has a solid home performance: in the last 5 home games, they scored 10 goals and conceded 7, with no losses and 3 wins. Additionally, their average shots (14) and ball possession (52%) are higher than Crystal Palaces, which has lower averages in away goals (8 in the last 5 away games) and possession (44%). This shows a more offensive and dominant home team.

📰 Recent news reports indicate Newcastle is on a winning streak after a convincing 3-1 away victory against Burnley, showing speed and aggression under Eddie Howe. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace drew their last home game 1-1 against Fulham and is active in the transfer market seeking key reinforcements like Brennan Johnson to improve their squad. This movement suggests Palace is still seeking stability, while Newcastle appears more cohesive.

Analyzing the median odds we have:

• Newcastle win: median odds = 1.8 → implied probability ≈ 55.56%
• Draw: median odds = 3.75 → implied probability ≈ 26.67%
• Crystal Palace win: median odds = 4.2 → implied probability ≈ 23.81%

The sum of implied probabilities exceeds 100% due to the house margin (~106%), so normalized we get approximately:

• Fair Newcastle win ~52%
• Fair draw ~25%
• Fair Crystal Palace win ~22%

Considering Newcastles superior offensive stats playing at their historic stadium and recent positive news, my personal estimate for fair probabilities would be approximately:

• Newcastle win: around 55-60%
• Draw: around 20-25%
• Crystal Palace win: around 15-20%

The fair odds for this forecast would then be roughly:

• Newcastle win: about 1.67
• Draw: about 4
• Crystal Palace win: about 5 or more

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers:

Newcastle win – Final odds = 1.666

Draw – Final odds = 4

Crystal Palace – Final odds = 5

There is a good convergence between my estimates based on stats/news/stadium and the final odds offered.

Analyzing the expected value calculated by Bets Kenya:

Positive expected value only on betting for the home team win (~19%), while draw (-36%) and away win (-38%) show significant negative values.

I fully agree with this assessment! The safest bet here is clearly the Magpies victory.

Bets Kenya & GPT 🤝 :
Bet on Newcastle United victory, as recent offensive and defensive stats at home in St James Park combined with the good recent form under current coaching indicate a high chance of winning this match.
The calculated expected value was +19%, indicating a good risk-return ratio!

Always remember to bet responsibly! ⚽💰🔥

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Analysis from Newcastle x Crystal Palace for the England Premier League – 4 of January

Latest news about Newcastle x Crystal Palace

Newcastle United: Newcastle United continued their strong run under Eddie Howe in December 2025, showcasing the speed, aggression, and verticality that defined their best performances, highlighted by a 3-1 away victory against Burnley on December 30, where they recorded only their second win in 13 league away games; the win started quickly with a two-minute goal from Joelinton with a subtle touch and Yoane Wissas first Premier League goal for the Magpies, a clumsy shot that went through a lengthy VAR check and marked his debut as a starter, after which the French forward praised his transfer to the club as a “destiny,” promised to deliver many goals and assists, and expressed confidence that the team’s momentum will grow as the season intensifies.

Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace started 2026 with a 1-1 draw at home against Fulham on January 1, after Jean-Philippe Mateta put the Eagles ahead with a header and Tom Cairney scored for the visitors to secure the point; coach Oliver Glasner indicated that the club remains active in the transfer market, saying he does not rule out a move for Tottenham winger Brennan Johnson and acknowledging interest from big clubs, with Manchester United allegedly monitoring Mateta and Palace having previously rejected offers up to £50 million for him, while a fee of £35 million was reportedly agreed with Tottenham for Johnson’s transfer.

Table analysis for the match between Newcastle and Crystal Palace

Newcastle: Newcastle is in 13th place with 26 points, just below Crystal Palace, which is in 10th with 27 points. The team still fights to improve their position on the table and try to reach at least a spot in European competitions, although the gap to the G6 is still considerable. This match is important for Newcastle because a victory could help them climb a few positions on the table and get closer to the UEFA Europa League qualification zone, as well as keep distance from relegation-threatened teams.

Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace holds 10th place with 27 points, just one point above Newcastle. They are in a comfortable position, far from relegation zone, but still without securing a spot in European competitions. Winning this direct encounter is crucial to maintain or even improve their position, which could increase their chances of achieving bigger goals in the championship. Therefore, the game is highly important for Crystal Palace in their pursuit of a better position on the table.

Summary: This is an important game for both teams, as they can gain positions on the table and get closer to fighting for spots in European competitions. The direct contest makes this match decisive and valuable for Newcastle and Crystal Palace.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Newcastle x Crystal Palace

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Newcastle x Crystal Palace right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1458345 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is betting on Newcastle worth it?

🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 72.95%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 730 times – this would give you a profit of $584.00
• And would have lost other 270 times – with a loss of -$270.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$314.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $440.00;
• And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$400.00.

Should you bet on Crystal Palace?

🔴 Crystal Palace: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.2% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 110 times – profiting $352.00;
• And would lose other 890 times – losing -$890.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$538.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Crystal Palace

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Crystal Palace

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Newcastle and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Newcastle. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Crystal Palace

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.