Newcastle x Leeds Betting tips for January 7 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Leeds, Wednesday, 7/1/2026

📅 7/1/2026 20:15

Newcastle 1.69

X 3.75

Leeds 4.95

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Newcastle x Leeds:

🔮 Newcastle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Newcastle, you can win up to $845.00!

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The main points for the tip for Newcastle x Leeds:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-30.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Newcastle scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Leeds matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Leeds has not lost any of them.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Newcastle vs Leeds:

Lets analyze the match between Newcastle and Leeds in the Premier League, which will take place at the iconic St. James Park, home of Newcastle United. 🏟️

📈 Newcastle is in great form at home: in the last 5 games at their stadium, they scored 10 goals and conceded only 6, with no losses and 3 wins. Additionally, the team has a high ball possession average (58%) and more shots on target than the opponent (15 vs 9), showing clear offensive dominance when playing at home. Leeds, on the other hand, has a more modest away performance, with a lower average of goals scored (1 per game) and more goals conceded (2 per game), along with lower ball possession (45%). In the league, Leeds has been unbeaten for seven games but still struggles to escape the relegation zone.

📰 Recent news indicates Newcastle is on an 11-match unbeaten streak at home across all competitions — a strong motivational factor to maintain their good form against Leeds. Meanwhile, Leeds is also in good away form with important draws against Liverpool and Manchester United; their resilience is highlighted by coach Daniel Farke, who values the depth of the squad to face strong opponents.

Analyzing the median odds offered by betting houses: Newcastles victory is priced at around 1.69; a draw at 3.71; Leeds victory at an impressive 4.95 — clearly reflecting the home team favoritism.

After normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds, we get approximately: Newcastle victory ~55%, draw ~25%, Leeds victory ~20%. Considering recent statistical data and motivational news, these probabilities make sense.

However, our internal model suggests much lower odds for Newcastles victory (~1.46), indicating even greater favoritism — perhaps underestimating the recent resilient defensive potential of the visitors — while overestimating the chances of draws or visitor wins by suggesting very high odds for these outcomes.

Evaluating the expected value in final bets compared to our fair estimates:
– Newcastle win EV high positive (+13.9%), confirming it as a recommended bet.
– Draw EV negative (-29%)
– Leeds win EV negative (-31%)

Therefore, my recommendation is to bet on Newcastles victory here! The team has everything to maintain its strength at home against an opponent that, despite good form, has not shown enough offensive capacity away from their fans.

Bets Kenya Tip: Trust the solid favoritism of the home team in this duel! ⚽🔥

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Newcastle x Leeds?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Newcastle x Leeds, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Newcastle x Leeds for the England Premier League – 7 of January

Latest news on Newcastle x Leeds

Newcastle United: Newcastle United started 2026 with a 2-0 victory in the Premier League against Crystal Palace at St James’ Park, with Bruno Guimarães scoring the winning header, his seventh goal of the league season, extending the teams home unbeaten streak to 11 matches across all competitions; Jacob Murphy started in place of Harvey Barnes, while Malick Thiaw scored a goal in the second half, and the team will aim to maintain their good form when they host Leeds United on January 7, after also celebrating Yoane Wissas first Premier League goal in Decembers win over Burnley.

Leeds United: Leeds United extended their good start to the season with a goalless away draw against Liverpool at Anfield and a 1-1 draw at home against Manchester United on January 4, 2026, with Brenden Aaronson opening the scoring before Matheus Cunha equalized, keeping Leeds unbeaten in seven games – their longest unbeaten run since the 2001-02 season – leaving the team eight points above the relegation zone; coach Daniel Farke praised the teams resilience, emphasized the need for points against strong opponents, and highlighted the squads depth, with Lukas Nmecha, Jeremie Frimpong, Lucas Perri in goal, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Boubacar Bijol, Jorrit Struijk, James Justin, Ilia Gruev, Liam Stach, Ethan Ampadu, Oliver Gudmundsson, and Aaronson all participating in recent lineups.

Table analysis for the game between Newcastle and Leeds

Newcastle: Currently in 9th place with 29 points, Newcastle is in an intermediate position on the Premier League table. With a total of 38 matches in the season and being in the 22nd round, this game remains important for the team to seek an improvement in the standings, especially to try to get closer to European competition spots, even though they are some distance from the top 6. Every point counts to stay out of the relegation zone and improve their final position.

Leeds: Sitting in 16th place with 22 points, Leeds is in a direct fight to distance itself from the relegation zone, which starts at 18th position. The margin is not comfortable, as the team is only 4 points away from the first team in the drop zone, making this match extremely important to try to secure Premier League safety. A victory against a top-table opponent would be a crucial boost for their relegation avoidance ambitions.

Summary: The match between Newcastle and Leeds is important for both teams. Newcastle aims to improve its position to reach European competitions, while Leeds fights to escape the relegation zone and secure their place in English footballs top tier. A decisive clash for both clubs season objectives! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Newcastle x Leeds

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Newcastle and Leeds.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1460319 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it worth betting on Newcastle?

🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 70.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.69. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 700 times – this would give you a profit of $483.00
• And would have lost other 300 times – with a loss of -$300.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$183.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.72%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – profiting $467.50;
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$362.50.

Should you bet on Leeds?

🔴 Leeds: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.05% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $513.50
• And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$356.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Leeds

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Leeds

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Newcastle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Newcastle.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Leeds

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.