Newcastle x Sunderland Betting tips for March 22 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Sunderland, Sunday, 22/3/2026

📅 22/3/2026 12:00

Newcastle 1.63

X 3.92

Sunderland 5.14

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Newcastle x Sunderland:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Newcastle x Sunderland

Important information for your tip for Newcastle x Sunderland:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-126.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sunderland in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $82.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Newcastle scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Sunderland matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Newcastle conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Newcastle vs Sunderland:

🔥 The classic Tyne-Wear match between Newcastle and Sunderland promises to be electrifying! Looking at recent stats, Newcastle has a stronger offensive performance at home, averaging 2 goals per game and holding 56% possession compared to Sunderland, which scores an average of 1 goal away. Additionally, Newcastle has more shots on target and favorable corners, indicating greater offensive pressure at St. James Park.

📈 In the Premier League table, Newcastle is in 9th place with 42 points, while Sunderland is just behind in 13th with 40 points. This closeness makes the match even more crucial for both teams to seek a victory to improve their standings and morale in the league.

📰 News reports indicate Newcastle recently suffered a heavy defeat against Barcelona in the Champions League and faces significant physical issues in their squad. Despite that, the team showed confidence after recently beating Chelsea. Sunderland, on the other hand, arrives under pressure after three consecutive home losses, and physical concerns about striker Amad Diallo could impact their attack.

Considering median odds (1.64 for Newcastle win, 3.9 for draw, and 5.1 for Sunderland win), the normalized implied probabilities show a clear favoritism for the home team (~55%), followed by the draw (~23%), and a lower chance for the away win (~19%). Our adjusted statistical calculation estimates about 57% for Newcastle victory, ~25% for a draw, and ~18% for Sunderland win.

However, our internal model suggests predicted odds are much higher for the home win (2.16), indicating an underestimation of Newcastles strength; predicted odds for draw (3.51) and away win (3.97) are lower than the betting houses median odds, suggesting overestimation of these outcomes.

Analyzing expected value (EV), only the bet on the away win shows a significant positive EV according to our model (+25%), but this does not align with recent team data or context — its unlikely that a pressured team like Sunderland has such a high chance away against a motivated opponent playing at St James Park.

Suggestion: The safe bet is on Newcastle victory, even considering recent injuries; they have better offensive performance at home, superior game control, and high motivation after beating Chelsea.
Betting on the draw or especially the away win seems risky without convincing expected value based on combined statistical + news analysis.
Estimated fair odds: Newcastle Win ~1.75 | Draw ~4 | Sunderland Win ~5

Attention: The stadium is indeed St James Park in Newcastle — clear advantage to the home team!

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Analysis from Newcastle x Sunderland for the England Premier League – 22 of March

The latest news about Newcastle x Sunderland

Newcastle United: Newcastle United has just suffered a 7‑2 defeat to Barcelona in the second leg of the Champions League round of 16, tying an unwanted record previously held by Gary Neville, and this loss eliminates them from the competition; the clubs medical team is dealing with a series of physical issues – Sandro Tonali is still battling an illness that kept him out of the match against Barcelona, while Bruno Guimarães is expected to return from a serious hamstring injury next week, Joe Willock has a muscle problem after the game against Chelsea, Lewis Miley remains uncertain with a thigh issue, and Fabian Schar and Emil Krafth continue to be sidelined – despite these setbacks, Eddie Howe praised the squads confidence after the 1‑0 victory over Chelsea and is focused on maintaining momentum before a crucial Tyne‑Wear derby against Sunderland, with Newcastle in ninth place in the Premier League with 42 points from 30 games and still seeking a European spot for next season.

Sunderland: Sunderland is currently in 13th position in the Premier League with 40 points after 30 games, recording an identical record of ten wins, ten draws, and ten losses, having recently suffered a 1‑0 home defeat to Brighton on March 14, 2026, a match in which Yankuba Mintehs cross was converted into a goal near the post; the defeat marked the clubs third consecutive loss at home and left them three points behind Newcastle United before the Tyne‑Wear derby, while coach Tony Mowbray revealed that the loaned player Amad Diallo “almost collapsed” after the game, highlighting concerns about the young strikers physical condition; the Black Cats are still controlled by Kyril Louis‑Dreyfus (64%) and Juan Sartori (36%), play at the Stadium of Light with a capacity of 49,000 spectators, and have veteran defender Brian Brobbey returning from injury for recent matches.

Table analysis for the match between Newcastle and Sunderland

Newcastle: Newcastle is in 9th place with 42 points, holding a comfortable position in the middle of the table. Although not directly fighting for European competition spots, the proximity to 8th place (43 points) indicates they can still improve their position to get closer to a possible UEFA Europa League spot. The match against Sunderland is important to earn points and maintain or even climb the table, aiming for a better position in the championship.

Sunderland: Sunderland is in 13th place with 40 points, just two points behind Newcastle. The team is not threatened by relegation nor qualified for European competitions, but they are fighting to climb the table and secure a more comfortable position. This game against Newcastle is relevant as it can help them stumble a direct rival and improve their campaign in the second half of the season.

Summary: The match is important for both teams, which are close in the standings and seek to climb the table to reach European competitions or secure a safer position in the championship. It is a game that can directly impact the fight for better placements.

Odds and handicap movements for Newcastle x Sunderland

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Newcastle x Sunderland.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Newcastle x Sunderland

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Newcastle and Sunderland.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1503887 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Newcastle worth it?

🔵 Newcastle: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.08%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.63. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 540 times – profiting $340.20;
• And would have lost other 460 times – with a loss of -$460.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$119.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.65% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.92. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $759.20;
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$19.20, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on Sunderland?

🔴 Sunderland: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.27% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.14. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – profiting $828.00;
• And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$28.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Sunderland

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Sunderland

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Newcastle, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Newcastle. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Sunderland

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Newcastle x Sunderland