Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace Betting tips for October 21 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace, Monday, 21/10/2024

📅 21/10/2024 19:00

Nottm Forest 2.38

X 3.29

Crystal Palace 3.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace:

🔮 Tied Match
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The main points for the tip for Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Nottm Forest in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Crystal Palace in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-107.0. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Crystal Palace scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Crystal Palace, Nottm Forest scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 Nottm Forest matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace, with Nottm Forest as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Nottm Forest conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Crystal Palace conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Nottm Forest has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Crystal Palace playing at home.

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Analysis from Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace for the England Premier League – 21 of October

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1205088 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace

Is it worth betting on Nottm Forest?

🔵 Nottm Forest: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 32.82% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.38. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 330 times – profiting $455.40;
• And would have lost other 670 times – with a loss of -$670.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$214.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 36.35% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.29. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – profiting $824.40;
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$184.40.

Is betting on Crystal Palace worth it?

🔴 Crystal Palace: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.84% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $620.00;
• And would have lost other 690 times – with a loss of -$690.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$70.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Nottm Forest
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Nottm Forest and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Nottm Forest.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Crystal Palace.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nottm Forest x Crystal Palace

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.