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Home » Predictions » English Premier League » Southampton x Chelsea Betting tips for December 4 in England Premier League
Wednesday, 04 December 2024, 19h30 England Premier League
Southampton Southampton
PREDICTION Southampton wins Probability 13% 1 X 2
Chelsea Chelsea
ODD: @5.73 Don't miss this prediction!

Southampton x Chelsea Betting tips for December 4 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Southampton x Chelsea, Wednesday, 4/12/2024
📅 4/12/2024
19:30
Southampton Southampton
5.73
X
4.40
Chelsea Chelsea
1.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Southampton x Chelsea:

🔮 Southampton wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Southampton, you can win up to $2865.00!

🔮 Chelsea wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Chelsea, you can win up to $750.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

Some important points for the tip for Southampton x Chelsea:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Southampton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-105.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Southampton scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Southampton conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Chelsea.

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Summary

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Analysis from Southampton x Chelsea for the England Premier League – 4 of December

🏟️ Southampton X Chelsea – England Premier League
📅 4 of December, 2024 – 19:30
🔵 Southampton – Winning probability: 13.19% | Fair line: 7.58
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 4.91% | Fair line: 20.37
🔴 Chelsea – Winning probability: 81.90% | Fair line: 1.22
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Southampton
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

When the best bet on Southampton x Chelsea is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1232417 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Southampton x Chelsea

Is betting on Southampton worth it?

🔵 Southampton: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 13.19%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.73. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 130 times – having a profit of $614.90;
  • And would have lost other 870 times – with a loss of -$870.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$255.10.

Is betting on draw worth it?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 4.91% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 50 times – profiting $170.00;
  • And would lose other 950 times – losing -$950.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$780.00.

Is betting on Chelsea worth it?

🔴 Chelsea: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 81.9% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 820 times – this would give you a profit of $410.00
  • And would lose other 180 times – losing -$180.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$230.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Southampton x Chelsea

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Southampton
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Southampton x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Southampton, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.0 Southampton.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Southampton x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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