Sunderland x Newcastle Betting tips for December 14 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Sunderland x Newcastle, Sunday, 14/12/2025

📅 14/12/2025 14:00

Sunderland 3.50

X 3.40

Newcastle 2.10

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Sunderland x Newcastle:

🔮 Newcastle wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Newcastle, you can win up to $1050.00!

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Important information for your tip for Sunderland x Newcastle:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Sunderland in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $65.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-240.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Sunderland scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Newcastle scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 Newcastle matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Sunderland conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Newcastle conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Sunderland vs Newcastle:

Lets analyze the match between Sunderland and Newcastle at the Stadium of Light, which is Sunderlands official stadium, giving them the home advantage. ⚽

📊 Recent statistics show that Sunderland has a solid home performance, with 2 wins and no losses in their last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 1.8 goals per game and conceding about 1.2 goals. Newcastle, on the other hand, has a more aggressive away attack (average of 1.8 goals), but also concedes more goals (average of 2.2). Ball possession slightly favors the visitor (48% vs. 42%), indicating Newcastle might control the ball more.

📈 In the league table, despite Sunderlands recent heavy defeat to Manchester City leaving them in ninth place, they still maintain good morale playing at home against a Newcastle that has been alternating good results with tough draws in the Champions League and Premier League.

📰 News indicates Sunderland suffered a tough loss recently but receives praise for recruitment and overall performance; Newcastle is strengthening its squad with new signings like Yoane Wissa aiming to stay highly competitive both nationally and internationally.

Analyzing the median odds: Sunderlands victory is priced around 3.5 (implied probability ~28%), a draw around 3.4 (~29%), and Newcastles victory around 2.1 (~48%). After normalization to adjust for bookmaker margins, approximate fair probabilities are: Sunderland win ~27%, draw ~28%, Newcastle win ~45%.

Considering balanced offensive stats but vulnerable defenses, especially for both teams away/away or home/home, plus the extra motivation of playing at the Stadium of Light for Sunderland, my adjusted estimate suggests close probabilities: Sunderland win ~30%, draw ~30%, Newcastle win ~40%. This indicates a slight advantage to the visitor but not as pronounced as the odds suggest.

Calculating expected value using the final odds (Sunderland @3.2; Draw @3.3; Newcastle @2.3) versus my adjusted fair odds results in a negative EV for all bets — none clearly offer value above +5% recommended for safe betting.

Suggestion: Despite odds slightly favoring Newcastle due to their offensive strength and current league position, I believe the match will be quite balanced, and betting on a draw or even a positive surprise for the home team could be interesting as a speculative bet due to the extra motivation of playing at the Stadium of Light.
The Bets Kenya model suggests a favorite to the visitor without a positive expected value in bets — I agree with this technical assessment but highlight the potential for greater balance considering the emotional/motivational context of the teams at this stage of the season.

In summary: No clear bet with positive expected value, but stay alert for a tight game or an appreciated draw!

Looking for another bookie to bet on Sunderland x Newcastle?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Sunderland x Newcastle, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Sunderland x Newcastle for the England Premier League – 14 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Sunderland and Newcastle.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1452657 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about Sunderland x Newcastle

Sunderland: Sunderland suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Manchester City on December 6, 2025, with Phil Foden scoring the opening goal and Luke ONien being sent off at the end of the match, a result that dropped them to seventh place in the Premier League; despite this setback, the club remains ninth in the table and has received many praises for their recruitment and performance this season, although statistical models suggest they are below expectations relative to their underlying numbers, and they continue to have the highest proportion of minutes played by African players in the league since their promotion.

Newcastle United: Newcastle Uniteds recent streak has been a mix of promising progress and contested results, with Eddie Howe confirming that new signing Yoane Wissa is approaching his first start after arriving in the summer from Brentford, while the Magpies secured a 2-1 victory in the Premier League against Burnley on December 6, with penalty goals from Aiden Gordon and a header from young Lewis Miley, plus a spectacular direct free-kick goal by captain Bruno Guimarães; a few days later, the team drew 2-2 with Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League, suffering a late equalizer from Alex Grimaldo after an early own goal by Guimarães, and despite losing points from advantageous positions more than most clubs, they remain active in the transfer market, eyeing Manchester United midfielder Kobie Mainoo for the January window.

Table analysis for the match between Sunderland x Newcastle

Sunderland: Sunderland is in 9th place with 23 points, aiming to get closer to the positions that qualify for European competitions. The gap to the teams just above is small, so this match is important to keep the momentum in the fight for a better position on the table and to dream of a future spot.

Newcastle: Newcastle is a bit behind, in 12th place with 22 points, trying to climb the table to escape the lower part. The game is important for Newcastle because a victory could help them reach closer competitors and improve their situation in the competition, ensuring more stability for the upcoming rounds.

Summary: This is a relevant matchup for both teams, which are still seeking to advance on the table and improve their chances regarding spots in European competitions. The game promises a fierce contest and crucial points at stake. ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Sunderland x Newcastle

Is it worth betting on Sunderland?

🔵 Sunderland: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $600.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.18% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 270 times – profiting $648.00;
• And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$82.00.

Is it worth betting on Newcastle?

🔴 Newcastle: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 48.54% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 490 times – profiting $539.00;
• And would have lost other 510 times – with a loss of -$510.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$29.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sunderland x Newcastle

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Sunderland
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sunderland x Newcastle

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.5 Sunderland, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Sunderland.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sunderland x Newcastle

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.