Wolverhampton x Aston Villa Betting tips for February 27 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa, Friday, 27/2/2026

📅 27/2/2026 20:00

Wolverhampton 3.99

X 3.70

Aston Villa 1.83

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa:

🔮 Aston Villa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Aston Villa, you can win up to $915.00!

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The main points for the tip for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Wolverhampton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-378.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $400.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Aston Villa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Aston Villa matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Wolverhampton x Aston Villa, with Wolverhampton as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Wolverhampton conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 road matches, Aston Villa has not lost any of them.
👉 Wolverhampton has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Aston Villa playing at home.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Wolverhampton vs Aston Villa?

Lets analyze the match between Wolverhampton and Aston Villa at Molineux Stadium, Wolverhamptons traditional home. 🏟️

📈 Aston Villa arrives with better recent performance, especially away, where they have 3 wins in the last 5 games and have conceded few goals (average of 0.4 goals per game). Wolverhampton is going through a tough time, with a streak of nine games without a win in the Premier League and many key absences. At home, Wolves recently scored an average of 1.8 goals per game but also conceded quite a bit (1.6 goals per game), showing defensive fragility.

📰 The news reinforces this analysis: Wolverhampton faces an internal crisis with absences and off-field issues affecting team morale; meanwhile, Aston Villa shows resilience under Unai Emery, focusing on securing a Champions League spot.

Analyzing the median odds we have:

• Wolves win: average odds 4.0 → implied probability ~25%
• Draw: average odds 3.7 → implied probability ~27%
• Aston Villa win: average odds 1.83 → implied probability ~55%

Adjusting for house margin and crossing with recent stats (goals scored/conceded, recent form), I estimate approximate fair probabilities:

• Wolves victory: ~22%
• Draw: ~28%
• Aston Villa victory: ~50%

Thus, fair odds would be around:

• Wolves win around 4.5
• Draw around 3.6
• Aston Villa win around 2.0

Estimating the expected value of the final odds offered by bookmakers compared to my fair estimates:

– Wolves EV = ((3.9 /4.5) -1)*100 = -13% (no value)
– Draw EV = ((3.7 /3.6) -1)*100 = +2% (almost neutral)
– Aston Villa EV = ((1.9 /2.0) -1)*100= -5% (no value)

The suggested bet by Bets Kenya is on the visitors victory (Aston Villa), which shows a positive expected value (~+6%). I partially agree because despite the clear advantage for Aston Villa in stats and recent news — plus their good away phase — I see that current odds already reflect this superiority well, leaving little room for consistent profit.

However, given the internal problems at Wolverhampton and the high motivation of Aston Villa to secure their European position, betting on the visitors win can be a valid move if you seek higher security even with moderate returns.

Final suggestion:
Bet on Aston Villa to win, considering their recent good form and the opponents fragility.
The expected value calculated by the model is positive (+6%), confirming this as a moderate value bet.

Good luck! 🍀⚽️ #PremierLeague #WolvesVsVilla #BetsKenya

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Wolverhampton x Aston Villa?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Wolverhampton x Aston Villa, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Wolverhampton x Aston Villa for the England Premier League – 27 of February

Latest news on the match between Wolverhampton and Aston Villa

Wolverhampton Wanderers: Wolverhampton Wanderers is going through a tough spell in the 2025-26 Premier League, sitting near the bottom of the table after a run of nine games without a win and ongoing injury crises. The teams recent form was highlighted on February 22, 2026, when they lost 1-0 to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, with Evann Guessand scoring the winning goal in the 90th minute, Ladislav Krejci receiving a red card, and fans displaying a banner accusing coach Oliver Glasner of disrespect. Glasner publicly apologized and admitted he may have demanded too much. Off the pitch, the club is also dealing with a racist abuse incident involving striker Tolu Arokodare, who, along with Sunderland winger Romaine Mundle, was targeted on social media, prompting the club to report the abuse, work with Meta and the Premier League, and reaffirm its zero-tolerance stance against discrimination.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa drew 1-1 at home against Leeds United on February 21, 2026, after Tammy Abraham came on in the second half to equalize following a long-range free kick by Anton Stach that put Villa behind. Coach Unai Emery praised the teams resilience, noting they now have 19 points this season from losing positions—more than any other Premier League club—and also warned that the team should focus on securing their Champions League spot rather than chasing the title. Off the field, a parliamentary committee reported that political pressures may have influenced the local security advisory groups decision to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from traveling to Villas Europa League match on November 6 at Villa Park, a measure that drew criticism amid concerns over fans rights.

Table analysis for the match between Wolverhampton and Aston Villa

Wolverhampton: The match is quite important for Wolverhampton, even though the current situation is tough. The team is in last place with only 10 points and is already in the relegation zone, desperately needing points to try to escape this critical situation. Every game from now on is a crucial chance to recover and avoid dropping to a lower division. Therefore, this match against Aston Villa is a real battle for survival! ⚽🔥

Aston Villa: For Aston Villa, this game has a different weight but remains relevant. The team is in 3rd place, within the Champions League qualification zone, with 51 points. Maintaining form and securing points is essential to solidify their spot in European competitions, especially considering that the margin for the teams just behind can be quickly shortened. A win here helps keep consistency in the fight for the top of the table. 🚀🏆

Summary: The game is important for both teams, but for different reasons: Wolverhampton fights to escape relegation, and Aston Villa aims to maintain its prominent position in the race for Champions League spots. A tense duel with clear objectives for each side! 🔥⚽

Odds and handicap movements for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the Match Odds market for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Wolverhampton and Aston Villa.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1488001 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Wolverhampton?

🔵 Wolverhampton: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.99. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $687.70;
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$82.30.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $594.00
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$186.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Aston Villa?

🔴 Aston Villa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 55.45% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.83. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 550 times – profiting $456.50;
• And would lose other 450 times – losing -$450.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$6.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Wolverhampton x Aston Villa

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Wolverhampton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Wolverhampton, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Wolverhampton.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Wolverhampton.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Wolverhampton x Aston Villa