AZ x Excelsior Betting tips for December 14 in Netherlands Eredivisie

Our betting tip for AZ x Excelsior, Sunday, 14/12/2025

📅 14/12/2025 15:45

AZ 1.31

X 5.50

Excelsior 7.82

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for AZ x Excelsior:

🔮 AZ wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AZ, you can win up to $655.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for AZ x Excelsior:

👉 If you had bet $100 on AZ in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-94.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Excelsior in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $250.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, AZ scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Excelsior, AZ scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between AZ x Excelsior, with AZ as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Excelsior conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 AZ has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Excelsior.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for AZ vs Excelsior?

⚽ The match between AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior at AFAS Stadium promises to be a game with a clear favorite for AZ, which plays in its traditional stadium, where it averages 2 goals per match and maintains good ball possession (56%). The home team is on a winning streak this season, occupying fifth place in Eredivisie and aiming to secure a top-four spot. Meanwhile, Excelsior is in a more delicate situation, ranking 16th with below-average offensive and defensive performance.

📈 Looking at recent stats: AZ scored 10 goals in the last 5 home games, conceded 8, and won 3 of these matches; while Excelsior scored only 5 goals away from home during this period and conceded more goals than they scored (8). The difference in shot volume is also striking: AZ averages 19 shots per game compared to just 12 for the opponent. This clearly shows the home team’s offensive dominance.

📰 Recent news highlight that AZ Alkmaar is focused on domestic and European competitions with key players like Denso Kasius contributing well. On the other hand, Excelsior faces internal difficulties such as the resignation of captaincy by Redouan El Yaakoubi, along with a poor run reflected in the table.

Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers (1.31 for AZ win; draw at 5.55; Excelsior win at 7.81), after normalizing the implied probabilities, we get something close to:

• Fair probability for AZ victory: ~72%
• Draw: ~17%
• Excelsior victory: ~11%

From this, we calculate fair odds close to:

• AZ Alkmaar: around @1.39
• Draw: around @5.88
• Excelsior: around @9.09

Current final odds are quite aligned with the expected scenario — especially for betting on the home team — but our internal model seems to overvalue this possibility, even predicting absurd odds below @1.10 for the home win and huge negative values for other outcomes.

Evaluating the expected value (EV) of bets using our fair odds versus the final odds:

• Bet on AZ shows a positive EV above +20%, indicating good value;
• Bets on draw or away win show high negative EV;

Final suggestion: bet on AZ Alkmaar to win, as besides the strong statistics favoring the home team and positive recent news, there is clear technical superiority evidenced by offensive/defensive numbers.

The Bets Kenya model is correct in indicating value in this bet but overestimates the predicted probabilities — our analysis suggests caution regarding the extreme underestimation of other outcomes. Let’s confidently back the solid favorite! 💪🔥

Looking for another bookie to bet on AZ x Excelsior?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from AZ x Excelsior for the Netherlands Eredivisie – 14 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between AZ and Excelsior.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1452657 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news about AZ x Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar: AZ Alkmaar is continuing its quest for a top-four finish in the 2025-26 Eredivisie, currently in fifth place after a 2-2 draw with Go Ahead Eagles on December 7, with 25 points from 15 matches. The team boosted its European campaign with a 3-0 home victory over Drita in the UEFA Conference League on December 11, where Sven Mijnans was named the man of the match. Defender Denso Kasius has been a regular starter in recent league matches, contributing offensively and defensively with one goal and one assist in the last five games. The teams next challenge is on December 21 against Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie, as the club remains focused on maintaining momentum in domestic and continental competitions.

Excelsior: Excelsior is currently in 11th position in the Womens Eredivisie and 16th in the mens Eredivisie, with five wins, one draw, and nine losses, a goal difference of -12, and 16 points. The womens team, Excelsior Maassluis, is in 14th place in the Tweede Divisie, with three wins, five draws, and eight losses, a goal difference of -9, and 14 points. Recent results include a 2-0 loss to FC Groningen in the VriendenLoterij Eredivisie and a 1-1 draw with Hera United in the womens league. Excelsior will face AZ Alkmaar on December 14, 2025, in the VriendenLoterij Eredivisie, as Redouan El Yaakoubi has stepped down as captain of the main team.

Table analysis for the match between AZ x Excelsior

AZ: AZ is in 5th place with 25 points, very close to the qualification zone for European competitions, as they are in a direct fight for the playoff spot. The match against Excelsior is important to maintain or even improve this position and secure a spot in the next continental phase. With a small gap to 4th place (Ajax, with 26 points) and 6th place (FC Groningen, with 23 points), a positive result could be decisive for a better standing in the current round, bringing them even closer to the clubs objectives.

Excelsior: Excelsior is in 13th place, with 16 points, a bit further from relegation risks but also far from European qualification spots. For them, this match has moderate importance, as although they are not directly threatened, there is still an interest in climbing the table and securing a more comfortable position until the end of the championship. Therefore, this game is an opportunity to try to improve performance in the final stretch, even without immediate pressure for bigger goals.

Summary: The game is more important for AZ, which is still fighting for qualifying positions in the table, while Excelsior has less motivation, seeking only to improve their performance and distance themselves from potential future threats. Thus, the confrontation is crucial for one team, while the other sees it as a chance for growth.

Tips for the Match Odds market for AZ x Excelsior

Is it worth betting on AZ?

🔵 AZ: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 92.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.31. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 920 times – this would give you a profit of $285.20
• And would lose other 80 times – losing -$80.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$205.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 5.07% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 50 times – this would give you a profit of $225.00
• And would lose other 950 times – having a loss of -$950.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$725.00.

Is it worth betting on Excelsior?

🔴 Excelsior: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 2.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.82. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 30 times – this would give you a profit of $204.60
• And would lose other 970 times – having a loss of -$970.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$765.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match AZ x Excelsior

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 AZ
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AZ x Excelsior

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 AZ, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 AZ.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.5 Excelsior.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AZ x Excelsior

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.50 goals.