Willem II x Fortuna Sittard Betting tips for October 20 in Netherlands Eredivisie

Our betting tip for Willem II x Fortuna Sittard, Sunday, 20/10/2024

📅 20/10/2024 10:15

Willem II 2.25

X 3.36

Fortuna Sittard 3.10

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Willem II x Fortuna Sittard:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Willem II x Fortuna Sittard

The main points for the tip for Willem II x Fortuna Sittard: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Willem II in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-50.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Fortuna Sittard in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-140.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Fortuna Sittard conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Willem II has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Fortuna Sittard playing at home.

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Analysis from Willem II x Fortuna Sittard for the Netherlands Eredivisie – 20 of October

When the best bet on Willem II x Fortuna Sittard is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1204538 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Willem II x Fortuna Sittard

Is it worth betting on Willem II?

🔵 Willem II: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 46.66% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 470 times – profiting $587.50;
• And would have lost other 530 times – with a loss of -$530.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$57.50, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 29.01%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.36. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 290 times – having a profit of $684.40;
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$25.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on Fortuna Sittard?

🔴 Fortuna Sittard: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $504.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$256.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Willem II x Fortuna Sittard

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Willem II
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Willem II x Fortuna Sittard

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Willem II, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Willem II.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Willem II x Fortuna Sittard

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.