Basel x Aston Villa Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for Basel x Aston Villa, Thursday, 11/12/2025

📅 11/12/2025 20:00

Basel 4.00

X 3.90

Aston Villa 1.78

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Basel x Aston Villa:

🔮 Aston Villa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Aston Villa, you can win up to $890.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Basel x Aston Villa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Basel in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-75.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $430.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Aston Villa conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Basel vs Aston Villa:

Lets analyze the match between Basel and Aston Villa in the UEFA Europa League, which will take place at St. Jakob-Park stadium, Basels traditional home.

📈 Performance analysis and table: Basel shows good home performance, averaging 2 goals scored per game and only 0.4 conceded in their last five matches at home. They clearly dominate offensive stats (20 shots per game) and defensive stats (only 14 shots against). Aston Villa has a similar goal average (2), but concedes more goals away (average 1.8). Villa is on a high after an impressive streak in the Premier League, occupying second place in the English table, indicating strong motivation to keep up the pace in Europe as well.

📰 Recent news: FC Basel keeps hopes alive in the Europa League with experienced players like Shaqiri contributing decisively; additionally, their senior team recently advanced in the Swiss Cup. On the other hand, Aston Villa is riding high after a dramatic victory over league leader Arsenal and maintains a strong defensive line with key players confirmed for the European match; this shows a confident team focused on both the national league and continental competitions.

Probability analysis:

• Adjusting median odds to normalized fair probabilities:
  – Basel win: ~0.27
  – Draw: ~0.26
  – Aston Villa win: ~0.47
• These values reflect the balanced offensive strength of both teams but indicate a slight favoritism to the visitor due to Aston Villas superior quality this season.
• However, considering Basels detailed home stats — controlling possession (58%) and creating more chances — we can slightly adjust this probability to increase Basels win chance to about 30%, reducing the visitor win chance a bit.

Adjusted fair odds analysis:

• Betting on a draw or Basel win may have hidden value due to the local defensive strength and extra motivation playing at home;
• Aston Villa is a clear favorite according to the external model with very low odds (~1.31), but this seems to underestimate Basels competitive potential;

EV analysis (Expected Value):

• Betting on the visitor according to Bets Kenya model has a high positive EV (+33%), indicating a good opportunity;
• Bets on a draw or home win have a significant negative EV (-50%+), suggesting to avoid these bets as per the models calculation;

Final suggestion: Despite Aston Villas recent strong campaign justifying favoritism 🦁⚽️, I believe current odds overvalue this advantage, ignoring important local factors like territorial dominance and solid home history by FC Basel 🏟️🔥. Therefore, my recommended bet would be to explore alternative markets like “draw no bet” or “both teams to score,” as betting directly on the simple win of the visitors does not provide total security given the tactical and technical balance shown by recent stats.

Overall, I partially agree with the Bets Kenya model on visitor favoritism but disagree with the very low odds assigned to Aston Villa — I see more value in a cautious approach emphasizing local tactical aspects presented here!

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Analysis from Basel x Aston Villa for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December

When the best bet on Basel x Aston Villa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1451823 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on the match between Basel and Aston Villa

FC Basel: The main team of FC Basel kept their hopes alive in the Europa League after Xherdan Shaqiri scored the decisive goal in the last match of the round of 16, while the senior team also advanced in the Swiss Cup with a 3-1 victory over FC Grand-Saconnex; the clubs U-19 team is scheduled to face FC Lausanne-Sport U-19 on December 13, 2025, in the Swiss U-19 Cup and continues competing in the Swiss U-19 Elite League, and Basels womens team, fresh from a 3-1 victory over Frauenteam Thun Berner Oberland in the Swiss Womens Super League, will play against Grasshopper Club Zürich on February 7, 2026.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa is on the rise, highlighted by a dramatic 2-1 victory in the Premier League over league leaders Arsenal on December 6, 2025, when Emiliano Buendía scored the winning goal in the 95th minute, taking Villa to second place in the table; the match featured Emiliano Martínez in goal, a solid defensive line with Cash, Konsa, Pau, and Maatsen, and offensively Onana, Kamara, Tielemans, McGinn, Rogers, and Watkins; the victory crowned a sequence of nine wins in ten games, making Villa the only club this season to improve its points per game record after European matches, showing the league’s largest positive difference after Europa League games. Off the field, captain John McGinn remains at the club after an £18 million offer from Everton was rejected, amid reported interest from Newcastle, while transfer window activities continue to be followed in live updates. In cup competition, Villa was drawn to play away against Tottenham Hotspur in the third round of the FA Cup, adding a high-profile clash to their busy schedule.

Table analysis for the match between Basel x Aston Villa

No table analysis was provided for this match.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Basel x Aston Villa

Should you bet on Basel?

🔵 Basel: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.65%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $360.00;
• And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$520.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.29% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 110 times – having a profit of $319.00;
• And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$571.00.

Is betting on Aston Villa worth it?

🔴 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 77.05% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.78. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 770 times – this would give you a profit of $600.60
• And would have lost other 230 times – with a loss of -$230.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$370.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Basel x Aston Villa

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Basel
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Basel x Aston Villa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Basel, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Basel.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Basel.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Basel x Aston Villa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.