Bologna x Roma Betting tips for March 12 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for Bologna x Roma, Thursday, 12/3/2026

📅 12/3/2026 17:45

Bologna 2.95

X 3.11

Roma 2.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Bologna x Roma:

🔮 Roma wins the match
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Important information for your tip for Bologna x Roma:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-165.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-305.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Bologna scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Roma conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Bologna has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Roma playing at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Bologna vs Roma:

Lets analyze the match between Bologna and Roma in the UEFA Europa League, which will take place at the Renato DallAra stadium, Bolognas traditional home. 🏟️

📈 Looking at recent statistics, Bologna has a balanced home performance with an average of 1 goal scored and conceded per game, along with a slightly higher ball possession (56%). Roma shows similar away numbers, also averaging 1 goal scored and conceded, with possession close (53%). However, Bologna demonstrates greater defensive solidity in recent league matches (undefeated), while Roma remains unbeaten in recent league games as well. This indicates a very close contest.

📰 Recent news indicates Bologna has key reinforcements like Thijs Dallinga returning to the starting lineup to seek a spot in Europe. On the other hand, Roma suffers from the significant absence of striker Paulo Dybala due to knee surgery — this could negatively impact their offensive power in this European match. Additionally, Romas owners are focused on restoring their historic identity with Totti involved in club organization.

Analyzing the median odds provided by betting houses: Bolognas win is priced at 2.84; draw at 3.14; Romas win at 2.5 — converting to normalized implied probabilities, we get approximately: Bologna 34%, draw 31%, Roma 35%. Considering balanced statistics but accounting for Romas important offensive absence and Bolognas home advantage at Renato DallAra (a historic stadium that usually boosts their team), my adjusted estimate would be close to: Bologna win ~38%, draw ~30%, Roma win ~32%.

Calculating fair odds based on this analysis, we have values close to:

• Bologna: ~2.63
• Draw: ~3.33
• Roma: ~3.13

The comparison of final odds from betting sites shows a positive expected value only for the away win bet according to the Bets Kenya model (+5%), but my analysis suggests this advantage is smaller due to Dybalas absence and Bolognas strong home form.

Suggestion: Avoid betting directly on the away win due to the narrow margin between the teams and the negative impact of Romas offensive absences being offset by Bolognas strong home advantage.
A safer bet could be on the “both teams to score” or “under goals” markets, considering solid defenses on both sides.

Suggested bet by the Bets Kenya model:
The model indicates positive value only for the away win (Roma) with EV +5%. I partially agree because I see greater balance between the teams due to news about important injuries in the Roma attack against occasional reinforcements from Bologna playing at their historic stadium.

Final summary:
A very balanced match where external factors like a serious injury could slightly favor the traditionally strong home team at Renato DallAra.
I recommend caution with direct bets; exploring alternative markets may offer better cost-benefit 🎯⚽️.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Bologna x Roma?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Bologna x Roma, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Bologna x Roma for the UEFA Europa League – 12 of March

Latest news on Bologna x Roma

Bologna: Bologna is preparing for the 28th round of Serie A this weekend, when they will host Hellas Verona at Renato Dall’Ara. Coach Vincenzo Italiano has called up a squad of 23 players, including the return of forward Thijs Dallinga and midfielder Giorgos Lykogiannis, while midfielder Mirko Miranda, defender Noah Heggem, and suspended midfielder Florian Freuler remain unavailable. Betting houses favor a narrow Bologna victory, with most odds pointing to a 1-0 scoreline, and Dallinga listed as a probable starter at 3.00, with Riccardo Orsolini and Santiago Castro highlighted as potential goal scorers as Bologna fights for a European spot and Verona battles relegation.

AS Roma: AS Roma is facing a serious setback with Argentine forward Paulo Dybala, who underwent arthroscopic surgery due to a torn meniscus, sidelined for about 45 days and practically ending any contract renewal chances with the club, with Boca Juniors emerging as a likely destination. The injury follows a recent recurrence that had already caused Dybala to miss weeks in January, further complicating Roma’s offensive options, despite the brief highlight when he played alongside Dutch forward Donyell Malen, who impressed in limited minutes and was seen as a potential asset for the Champions League. Off the field, club owners, the Friedkin group, are publicly emphasizing a renewed focus on “romanità” and the symbolic return of Francesco Totti to the organization as part of a broader strategy to restore the club’s historic identity, with the next Serie A match scheduled for March 8, 2026, against Genoa.

Table analysis for the match between Bologna and Roma

Bologna: Bologna is in 10th place with 15 points, aiming for a spot in the qualification playoffs to advance in the UEFA Europa League. They are very close to Roma, which is in 8th place with 16 points, making this match quite important for Bologna, who needs to win to try to surpass their rivals and secure a better position on the table. The fight for qualification is tight, and every point counts! ⚽🔥

Roma: Roma is in 8th place with 16 points, just above Bologna, and still in the running to reach a direct spot in the playoff phase. The match against Bologna is crucial to maintain or increase this advantage over nearby teams. A victory would be an important step toward direct qualification, making this game decisive for the Italian capital team.

Summary: This is an important game for both teams, as they are very close in the standings and fighting for spots in the final phase of the UEFA Europa League. The match could determine who gains an advantage in the race for positions leading to decisive stages of the tournament. The winner will get a big boost in the final stretch of the competition! 🚀

Odds and handicap movements for Bologna x Roma

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Bologna x Roma (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for Bologna x Roma

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Bologna x Roma right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1497995 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Bologna?

🔵 Bologna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.36%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $546.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$174.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.79% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.11. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $400.90
• And would lose other 810 times – losing -$810.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$409.10.

Is betting on Roma worth it?

🔴 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 52.85%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $795.00;
• And would lose other 470 times – having a loss of -$470.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$325.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Bologna x Roma

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Bologna
⚽ Expected goals: 2.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Bologna x Roma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Bologna and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Bologna.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bologna x Roma

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Bologna x Roma