Celta Vigo x Bologna Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for Celta Vigo x Bologna, Thursday, 11/12/2025

📅 11/12/2025 20:00

Celta Vigo 2.40

X 3.18

Bologna 2.97

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Celta Vigo x Bologna:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Celta Vigo x Bologna

The main points for the tip for Celta Vigo x Bologna:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Celta Vigo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-333.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $90.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Bologna scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Celta Vigo conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 road matches, Bologna has not lost any of them.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Bologna:

Lets talk about the match between Celta Vigo and Bologna in the UEFA Europa League, happening at Estadio Balaidos, Celtas home! 🏟️ The stadium is the true home of Celta, so they have that special feeling of playing at home, with fans supporting and everything.

📈 Table analysis: Celta is riding high after an important win against Real Madrid in La Liga and is in 10th place there. This gives them a huge boost of confidence heading into this match. Bologna is well placed in Serie A, fighting for a Champions League spot with 24 points, but recently lost a game that might have shaken their confidence a bit. In the Europa League, it seems Celta needs more points to secure their position in the group, while Bologna might be a bit more relaxed.

Statistics show: Bologna has better numbers away from home: an average of 2 goals scored versus 1 conceded in recent away games; meanwhile, Celta concedes more goals at home (average 2) than they score (average 1). Additionally, visitors have higher possession (55% vs 53%) and slightly more shots. This indicates an open game where Bologna can exploit Celtas defensive weaknesses.

Analyzing median odds:

• Celta Vigo win: odds ~2.41 → implied probability ~41%
• Draw: odds ~3.15 → implied probability ~32%
• Bologna win: odds ~2.95 → implied probability ~34%

The sum of probabilities exceeds 100% due to bookmaker margins; normalizing gives us approximately:

• Celta win: ~38%
• Draw: ~29%
• Bologna win: ~33%

Based on the statistical data and current team form, I would estimate fair probabilities close to these normalized values — perhaps giving a slight edge to Bologna for their offensive efficiency away and solid defense.

Suggested bet from Bets Kenya:

• Valuable bet on Celta Vigo to win, with a positive EV above 5%. The model sees value even with odds lower than my calculated fair odds.

I agree! Despite Bologna being in good form away from home, the extra motivation of Celta playing at their historic Balaidos stadium + high morale after beating Real Madrid makes me believe in a safe bet on the Spanish team here! ⚽🔥

📰 Influential news:

• Celta recovers their main attackers Borja Iglesias (8 goals), Iago Aspas, and Bryan Zaragoza — important reinforcements to seek decisive goals;
• Bologna has key absences like Vitik and Skorupski, plus the recent recovery of Casale;
• High confidence after beating Real Madrid weighs heavily on the Celeste side;

Overall, I see this match as balanced but with a slight favoritism for Celta Vigo winning at home. My tip is to bet on them taking advantage of this hot streak 🔥💰!

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Analysis from Celta Vigo x Bologna for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December

When the best bet on Celta Vigo x Bologna is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1451823 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on Celta Vigo x Bologna

Celta Vigo: Celta Vigo achieved a remarkable 2-0 victory over Real Madrid, rising to 10th position in La Liga after their second win in three matches. The team enters upcoming games with mostly healthy squad members, despite some doubts regarding defenders Joseph Aidoo and Mihailo Ristic. The main forwards Borja Iglesias, who has scored eight goals in all competitions, veteran Iago Aspas, and the speedy Bryan Zaragoza are back, strengthening a team that has shown resilience playing away, accumulating 11 points in six away games this season.

Bologna: Bologna advanced to the Coppa Italia round of 16 on December 4, 2025, at Renato Dall’Ara, defeating Parma 2-1 thanks to a dramatic goal by Santiago Castro in the 89th minute that secured their spot in the quarter-finals. Coach Vincenzo Italiano later confirmed a squad of 25 players for the Serie A match against Lazio on December 7, highlighting the return of Lucumì after a tendon issue, the ongoing absence of Vitik, Skorupski, and Casale’s recovery from the flu. The game ended 1-1, with goals from Isaksen for Lazio and Odgaard for Bologna, who played in a 4-2-3-1 formation with Ravaglia; Zortea, Casale, Heggem, and Miranda in defense; Moro and Pobega in midfield; and an attacking line of Orsolini, Odgaard, and Cambiaghi supporting Castro. The rossoblù are in Champions League positions with 24 points despite a recent 3-1 defeat to Cremonese.

Table analysis for the match between Celta Vigo and Bologna

No table analysis was provided for this match.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Celta Vigo x Bologna

Is it a good idea to bet on Celta Vigo?

🔵 Celta Vigo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 44.58% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 450 times – profiting $630.00;
• And would have lost other 550 times – with a loss of -$550.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$80.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.46% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.18. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $632.20
• And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$77.80, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on Bologna?

🔴 Bologna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.96%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.97. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $512.20;
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$227.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Celta Vigo x Bologna

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Celta Vigo
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Celta Vigo x Bologna

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Celta Vigo, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Celta Vigo.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Bologna.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Celta Vigo x Bologna

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.