Celtic x Roma Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for Celtic x Roma, Thursday, 11/12/2025

📅 11/12/2025 20:00

Celtic 3.28

X 3.42

Roma 2.11

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Celtic x Roma:

🔮 Celtic wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Celtic, you can win up to $1640.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Celtic x Roma:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Celtic in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $43.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $8.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Celtic scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Celtic is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 71.00% of possession.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Celtic vs Roma?

⚽ The match between Celtic and Roma promises to be quite balanced, but with some important nuances to consider. Celtic plays at their usual stadium, the impressive Celtic Park, which is a real cauldron for visitors. This already gives a natural advantage to the Scottish team.

📈 Analyzing recent statistics, Celtic has a very productive attack at home (average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 home matches) and a solid defense (0.6 goals conceded per game). Additionally, they dominate possession with an average of 69%, show superiority in shots on goal and favorable corners. Roma, on the other hand, shows more modest numbers away: an average of 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in recent away games, with lower possession (57%) and fewer dangerous shots.

📰 Recent news indicates Celtic is under new coach Wilfried Nancy, who is still adjusting the team after a recent league defeat; however, they maintain good morale due to the fierce competition in the Scottish league and domestic cups. Roma faces defensive issues highlighted in their last defeat against Cagliari, with an important red card; Dybala is out with the flu, and there are doubts about some key attackers.

Based on median odds provided by betting houses: Celtic win (3.3), draw (3.5), Roma win (2.1), we calculate the normalized implied probabilities as:

• Celtic: ~28%
• Draw: ~26%
• Roma: ~46%

However, considering the offensive/defensive stats of the teams combined with the influence of playing at Celtic Park — where they have strong dominance — our adjusted estimate of fair probabilities would be close to:

• Celtic win: 38% – reflecting their offensive power at home + stadium factor
• Draw: 27% – a possible result given the defensive strength of both sides
• Roma win: 35% – despite recent difficulties, they are still a strong team technically

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately:

• Celtic win: 1 / 0.38 ≈ 2.63
• Draw: 1 / 0.27 ≈ 3.70
• Roma win: 1 / 0.35 ≈ 2.86

Comparing the final odds offered by bookmakers with our fair odds, we see:

• The odds for Celtic victory are too high (3.3 vs. fair ~2.63), indicating positive value in this bet;
• The draw is aligned or slightly high (~3.4 vs. fair ~3.7), possibly with some moderate value;
• The Roma victory seems underestimated (~2.2 vs. fair ~2.86), suggesting higher risk in betting on it.

Calculating the approximate expected value for each bet using our fair odds:

• Expected value Celtic: ((3.30 / 2.63) – 1) * 100 = 25%+
• Expected value draw: ((3.40 / 3.70) – 1) * 100 = -8%−
• Expected value Roma: ((22.00 / 2.86) – 1) * 100 = -23%−

Conclusion:

The best bet according to our analysis is clearly Celtics victory 🏴‍☠️🏟️! They play at home in a very strong stadium where they dominate recent matches both offensively and defensively; additionally, they face a visiting team with many absences and poor defensive form.
The Bets Kenya model also suggests this same bet with a significant positive EV (+24%), so we fully agree! 🎯💰
Avoid bets on the draw or Roma as they show negative EV according to our calculations.

Good luck! 🍀⚽️ #ValueBet #CelticVsRoma #EuropaLeague

📰 News had a big influence here as they highlighted tactical changes in Celtic that could positively impact their motivation even after a recent defeat; meanwhile, Roma suffers from important absences, especially offensively, along with recent disciplinary issues.

📈 In the table, both teams are fighting for strong objectives, but the strong home advantage combined with the current form clearly favors Celtic to seek this important victory within their historic grounds!

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Celtic x Roma?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Celtic x Roma, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Celtic x Roma for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December

When the best bet on Celtic x Roma is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1451823 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news about Celtic x Roma

Celtic: Celtic has confirmed Wilfried Nancy as their permanent head coach with a two-and-a-half-year contract after taking over as interim following Brendan Rodgers resignation. His first match in charge ended in a 2-1 home defeat against Hearts, the league leaders, with Kieran Tierney scoring a consolation goal at the end. Despite the loss, Nancy highlighted several “really good moments” and the club remains in the race for the Scottish Premiership title and the League Cup final, while next weeks fixtures include a crucial showdown against Dundee United to stay in pursuit of the top of the table.

Roma: Led by Gian Piero Gasperini, Roma suffered a 1-0 defeat against Cagliari on December 7, with a compromised defensive performance and Celiks red card. Dybala missed training due to the flu and will not be available soon. Irish forward Evan Ferguson disappointed expectations, and the club is considering his return to Brighton in January. Soulé and Pellegrini are considered the most effective offensive players, and Gasperini is preparing a lighter lineup for the next round, with Svilar in goal, a back line with three defenders (Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso), a midfield of four players (Celik, Cristante, Koné, Wesley), and an attack with three players (Soulé, Pellegrini, Ferguson) or the possibility of including Baldanzi or Dybala once they are fit.

Table analysis for the match between Celtic x Roma

No table analysis was provided for this match.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Celtic x Roma

Is it a good idea to bet on Celtic?

🔵 Celtic: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.05% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.28. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $866.40
• And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$246.40.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.5% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.42. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – profiting $508.20;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$281.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on Roma?

🔴 Roma: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 40.45% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.11. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 400 times – profiting $444.00;
• And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$156.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Celtic x Roma

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Celtic
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Celtic x Roma

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Celtic, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.25 Celtic.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Celtic.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Celtic x Roma

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.