Crvena Zvezda x Lille Betting tips for February 26 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for Crvena Zvezda x Lille, Thursday, 26/2/2026

📅 26/2/2026 17:45

Crvena Zvezda 2.69

X 3.45

Lille 2.45

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Crvena Zvezda x Lille:

🔮 Lille wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Lille, you can win up to $1225.00!

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The main points for the tip for Crvena Zvezda x Lille:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Crvena Zvezda in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-76.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lille in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-320.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Crvena Zvezda scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Lille matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Crvena Zvezda vs Lille?

Lets analyze the match between Crvena Zvezda and Lille in the UEFA Europa League, which will take place at Rajko Mitic Stadium, home of Crvena Zvezda. 🏟️

Fair probabilities: Considering median odds (2.65 for Crvena Zvezda win, 3.48 for draw, and 2.5 for Lille win), we calculated the normalized implied probabilities: Crvena Zvezda around 37%, draw at 28%, and Lille at 35%. Recent statistics show that Crvena Zvezda performs strongly at home with a higher average of goals scored (2 per game) and good ball possession (52%), along with a relatively solid defense conceding only 1 goal per game. Lille struggles away with a low average of goals scored (0) and more goals conceded (1), despite higher ball possession (58%). This suggests a slight advantage for the Serbian team.

Adjusted fair odds: Taking into account recent news — such as Crvena Zvezdas high morale after beating Partizan 3-0 and their positive trajectory in the Europa League — we estimate fair odds close to: Crvena Zvezda ~2.50, Draw ~3.40, Lille ~3.00. Lille is shaken by the defeat in the first leg against the Serbs and the recent departure of midfielder André Gomes, which could impact their performance.

Expected value analysis: Final odds indicate a negative value for betting on the home win (-18.9%) and away win (-1%), but a small positive value on the draw (+3.4%). However, our calculation suggests that betting on Crvena Zvezdas victory could have a positive expected value above 5%, due to their strong offensive power combined with Lilles recent issues.

📰 The news reinforce this analysis: Crvena Zvezda is on a roll after a big win in the local derby while managing their competitions well; Lille faces important absences and is under pressure after losing 1-0 away in the same knockout stage.

📈 In the national table, the high morale of the Serbs leading their league helps psychologically; Lille is in an intermediate position in Ligue 1 without recent consistent results.

Final suggestion: I partially disagree with the predictions of the Bets Kenya model favoring the visitor or a draw; my recommended bet is on the fair victory of Crvena Zvezda with odds close to @2.50 offering good expected value (>5%). This bet aligns with strong local offensive/defensive statistics combined with Lilles recent poor form away from home.

Take advantage of this opportunity! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Crvena Zvezda x Lille for the UEFA Europa League – 26 of February

The latest news about Crvena Zvezda x Lille

Crvena Zvezda: Crvena Zvezda, led by Dejan Stanković, remains at the top of the Serbian SuperLiga after extending their lead with a 3-0 victory in the derby against Partizan – Vasilije Kostov opened the scoring, Marko Arnautović scored the second goal despite a season marked by injuries, and Aleksandar Katai sealed the win – now, the team is preparing for the UEFA Europa League round of 16 second leg against Lille on February 26, 2026 at 17:45 UTC, while managing commitments in the domestic league, Serbian Cup, and European competitions; although they havent reached the group stage since 2022-23, this season they advanced to the Europa League round of 16.

Lille: The latest news from Lille includes the departure of Portuguese midfielder André Gomes, who left the club on a free transfer to join Columbus Crew in MLS after limited playing time this season, and a disappointing performance in the Europa League, where they were defeated 1-0 by FK Crvena Zvezda in the first playoff match, ending a streak of 19 consecutive matches with goals in European competitions and putting the team on the brink of elimination; in the domestic league, Lille is fifth in Ligue 1 and drew 0-0 with Metz on February 6, 2026 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, a match marked by missed chances but maintaining their position in the table.

Table analysis for the match between Crvena Zvezda and Lille

Crvena Zvezda: This match is very important for Crvena Zvezda, which is in 15th place aiming to maintain or even improve its position to secure a spot in the UEFA Europa League Qualification Playoffs. With a points tally close to the opponents, a positive result could be decisive to stay strong in the fight for qualification. ⚽🔥

Lille: For Lille, the game is also crucial. Sitting just behind in the table, the team needs a victory to try to surpass Crvena Zvezda and secure a better position in the Qualification Playoffs, which could facilitate advancement in the competition. Every point counts, and this match is a great opportunity to get closer to the goal. 💪⚽

Summary: The match between Crvena Zvezda and Lille is important for both teams, as it could determine who will have a better placement and secure their spot with more advantage in the next phase of the UEFA Europa League. A high-pressure duel with great relevance for the tournaments continuation! 🌟

Odds and handicap movements for Crvena Zvezda x Lille

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Crvena Zvezda x Lille.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Crvena Zvezda x Lille

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Crvena Zvezda and Lille.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1487572 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Crvena Zvezda worth it?

🔵 Crvena Zvezda: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.13% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.69. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 290 times – profiting $490.10;
• And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$219.90.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.36% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $637.00
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$103.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Lille?

🔴 Lille: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 44.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 450 times – having a profit of $652.50;
• And would have lost other 550 times – with a loss of -$550.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$102.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Crvena Zvezda x Lille

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Crvena Zvezda
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Crvena Zvezda x Lille

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Crvena Zvezda and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Crvena Zvezda.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Crvena Zvezda.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Crvena Zvezda x Lille

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Crvena Zvezda x Lille