FC Porto x Malmo FF Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League
| 📅 11/12/2025 20:00 |
 FC Porto1.21 |
X 6.00 |
Malmo FF  12.00 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for FC Porto x Malmo FF:
🔮 FC Porto wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on FC Porto, you can win up to $605.00!
Important information for your tip for FC Porto x Malmo FF:
👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Porto in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $8.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Malmo FF in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-333.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, FC Porto scored at least 1 goal(s).
🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for FC Porto vs Malmo FF:
Lets analyze the match between FC Porto and Malmö FF at Estádio do Dragão, the rightful home of FC Porto, which has a very strong recent record in its home games. In the last 5 home matches, FC Porto scored an average of 2 goals per game and conceded only 0.8 goals per game. Additionally, the team won 4 of the last 5 home games and has a high shot average (13) with good accuracy (5 on target). Conversely, Malmö FF struggles away from home: in the last 5 away matches, they scored only 0.8 goals per game and conceded an average of 2.4 goals, having lost most recent away matches.
The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for FC Porto with odds around 1.22 for the home team to win, against high odds for a draw (6) and an away win (12). Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities, we get approximately: FC Porto win ~74%, Draw ~15%, Malmö FF win ~11%. Considering recent offensive/defensive stats and team performances in local and international competitions, these probabilities seem consistent.
The Bets Kenya model is extremely optimistic about the home team’s victory with a very low predicted odds (~1.03), indicating almost absolute certainty of FC Porto’s win; meanwhile, the predicted odds for a draw (~37) or an away win (~167) are excessively high, reflecting very low chances for these outcomes according to the model.
My analysis suggests that although favoritism towards FC Porto is real due to the technical/tactical dominance evidenced by recent stats—especially playing at Estádio do Dragão—it’s unlikely that the probability is as extreme as the model indicates. A more balanced fair value would be close to the implied probabilities adjusted by recent performance: about 70-75% for Porto win, 15-20% for draw, and 10-15% for the Swedish victory.
📈 In the Portuguese national table, FC Porto comfortably leads their league with a large advantage over direct competitors Sporting and Benfica; this further boosts their high morale in the current season while they are also physically well-prepared despite key injuries like Luuk de Jong. Malmö FF is experiencing a turbulent period off the pitch with recent technical changes that could negatively impact their focus in this European match.
📰 The news reinforces this view: The significant defensive absence in Porto’s squad might be felt but should not significantly compromise given the team’s technical depth; meanwhile, Malmö faces external technical instability that could affect their performance on the field.
Based on this, my suggestion is to bet on a fair victory for FC Porto, considering a moderate positive expected value in this bet against the final odds offered by the bookmakers (~1.20). I would avoid risky bets on draws or away wins given the low potential return versus high risk shown by current data.
Suggested Bet: Victory of FC Porto, as it offers security based on solid statistics combined with a clear advantage playing at their official stadium.
Estimated expected value: +16%
Overall, I fully agree with the bet indicated by the Bets Kenya model in this case—betting on the maximum local strength—but I disagree with the extreme magnitude of its precise fair odds predictions, which overestimate this certainty.
⚽️💪🔥
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on FC Porto x Malmo FF?
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Analysis from FC Porto x Malmo FF for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December
🏟️ FC Porto X Malmo FF – UEFA Europa League
📅 11 of December, 2025 – 20:00
🔵 FC Porto – Winning probability: 97.00% | Fair line: 1.03
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 2.43% | Fair line: 41.23
🔴 Malmo FF – Winning probability: 0.57% | Fair line: 174.5
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks
When the best bet on FC Porto x Malmo FF is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1451823 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Latest news on the match between FC Porto and Malmo FF
FC Porto: FC Porto is entering their next league match with defender Nehuen Pérez out due to a tendon issue and midfielder Gabri Veiga expected in the starting lineup, while Alan Varela is likely to stay on the bench after a below-par performance in the recent League Cup quarter-final defeat; the club also confirmed that forward Luuk de Jong suffered a partial tear of the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee, sidelining him for an indefinite period, and despite this setback, the team is at the top of the Portugal Liga table, having won 12 of their 13 matches, five points ahead of Sporting and eight ahead of Benfica, as they prepare to host Vitória SC.
Malmö FF: Recent news from Malmö FF includes former coach Henrik Rydström being linked to a possible coaching position at Ajax, as the Dutch club seeks a new manager after winning the Allsvenskan twice and a Swedish Cup before his dismissal in 2024; Malmö FFs youth director also publicly accused FC Copenhagen of aggressive recruitment efforts targeting children from the age of eight, claiming the Danish club approached young players from Malmös football school; and following the Swedish national team coaching change, Malmös sporting director Christian Christiansen stated that the Swedish media played a significant role in Jon Dahl Tomassons dismissal.
Table analysis for the match between FC Porto and Malmo FF
No table analysis was provided for this match.
Tips for the Match Odds market for FC Porto x Malmo FF
Is it worth betting on FC Porto?
🔵 FC Porto: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 97.0% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.21. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 970 times – having a profit of $203.70;
- And would have lost other 30 times – with a loss of -$30.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$173.70.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 2.43% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 20 times – having a profit of $100.00;
- And would have lost other 980 times – with a loss of -$980.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$880.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Malmo FF?
🔴 Malmo FF: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 0.57%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 12.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 10 times – having a profit of $110.00;
- And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$880.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match FC Porto x Malmo FF
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 FC Porto
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for FC Porto x Malmo FF
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 FC Porto and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.75 FC Porto.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for FC Porto x Malmo FF
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
