Lille x Crvena Zvezda Betting tips for February 19 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for Lille x Crvena Zvezda, Thursday, 19/2/2026

📅 19/2/2026 20:00

Lille 1.62

X 4.00

Crvena Zvezda 5.07

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Lille x Crvena Zvezda:

🔮 Crvena Zvezda wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Crvena Zvezda, you can win up to $2535.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Lille x Crvena Zvezda:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lille in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-300.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Lille scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Crvena Zvezda scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Crvena Zvezda matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 road matches, Crvena Zvezda has not lost any of them.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Lille vs Crvena Zvezda:

Lets analyze the match between Lille and Crvena Zvezda in the UEFA Europa League, which will be played at Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lilles home ground. 🏟️

📈 Lille is going through a tough phase at home, with only 1 win in the last 5 games and a high goals conceded average (2 per game). Despite that, they have good ball possession (55%) and create many chances (13 shots per game). Crvena Zvezda is performing very well away, unbeaten in the last 5 matches with an average of 2 goals scored and 0 goals conceded. They also show higher offensive efficiency with more accurate shots (6) and fewer fouls committed.

📰 News indicates Lille is focused on the French championship but has a competitive squad under coach Bruno Genesio. Crvena Zvezda is the leader in Serbia, physically strong, and has experienced forwards like Marko Arnautović. This suggests a confident visiting team aiming for a positive result away.

Analyzing the median odds: Lille to win at 1.61, draw at 4.00, and Crvena Zvezda to win at 5.00; the normalized implied probabilities are approximately: Lille ~58%, draw ~23%, Crvena Zvezda ~19%. Considering recent team performances in European competition — where the visitor has been more consistent — my adjusted estimate would be around Lille ~50%, draw ~25%, Crvena Zvezda ~25%, reflecting greater balance due to the Serbian offensive strength.

The Bets Kenya model predicts very high odds for the home team (~2.40), indicating a low chance according to its calculation; for the visitor (~2.98), it indicates high value for betting on Crvena Zvezda with a significant positive EV (+67%). However, this forecast seems to underestimate Lilles true home advantage playing at Stade Pierre Mauroy — an important factor that usually favors the home team quite a bit.

Therefore, I see moderate value in a balanced bet between Lilles win or a draw (both close to fair probabilities), while betting directly on the visitor despite their good form might be risky due to the natural disadvantage away against a traditionally strong European opponent at their stadium.

Suggested bet: avoid direct bets on the visitor even with high EV from the model; consider combined bets or light handicap favoring Lille given their home advantage.
Expected value calculated for the home win adjusted around +10% considering home advantage + recent stats.
A draw also shows value close to fair (~0%), while a direct bet on Crvena Zvezda might be overestimated by the model due to partial disregard of the true home advantage.

In summary: ⚽️ Stade Pierre Mauroy is truly “home” for Lille — that counts! The French team needs to improve their defense but creates enough chances to balance against a strong opponent like Crvena Zvezda, which is on a good run but far from an absolute favorite here!

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Analysis from Lille x Crvena Zvezda for the UEFA Europa League – 19 of February

The latest news about Lille x Crvena Zvezda

Lille OSC: Lille OSC is currently fifth in Ligue 1 with 34 points after 22 matches under coach Bruno Genesio. They recently drew in the league, 1‑1 against Stade Brestois and 0‑0 against Metz. They are prepared to face Celta de Vigo in the Europa League on Thursday before the match against Red Star Belgrade on February 19, 2026. Their next home game will be a Ligue 1 match against Nice on April 19, 2026, at Decathlon Arena.

FK Crvena Zvezda: FK Crvena Zvezda, led by former midfielder Dejan Stanković, remains the dominant force in Serbian football, currently holding the Mozzart Bet Superliga title and being the club with the most league titles. They play their home matches at Rajko Mitić Stadium, which has a capacity of 55,538 spectators. After a 3‑0 victory over FK Železničar Pančevo in the league, their next fixture is on February 19, 2026, at 20:00 UTC, in the UEFA Europa League against Lille. The team continues to lead the domestic table and features a deep squad including forwards like Marko Arnautović and Bruno Duarte, with a mix of Serbian and international talents.

Table analysis for the match between Lille and Crvena Zvezda

Lille: Lille is in 18th position with 12 points, fighting to improve its standing on the table. This match is very important for them, as a victory could mean a jump in the rankings and a better chance to reach a qualifying playoff spot. Being in 18th place indicates that the team needs to make the most of every game to avoid falling behind in the competition. ⚽️🔥

Crvena Zvezda: Crvena Zvezda is in 15th position with 14 points, slightly ahead of Lille. For them, this match is also crucial to consolidate their position and seek an even better spot on the table, securing a playoff spot. Every point counts, and this game could make a difference in the seasons final stretch. 🏆👍

Summary: This match is important for both teams, as it can directly influence their chances of advancing in the UEFA Europa League and improving their positions on the table. A decisive duel for those who want to keep dreaming of the next phase! 🔥✨

How the handicap and odds moved for Lille x Crvena Zvezda

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Lille x Crvena Zvezda.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lille x Crvena Zvezda

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Lille x Crvena Zvezda right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1482984 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Lille?

🔵 Lille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.62. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 480 times – this would give you a profit of $297.60
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$222.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.73% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $720.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$40.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Crvena Zvezda?

🔴 Crvena Zvezda: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.33% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.07. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $1139.60;
• And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$419.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lille x Crvena Zvezda

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Lille
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lille x Crvena Zvezda

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Lille, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Lille.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Crvena Zvezda.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lille x Crvena Zvezda

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Lille x Crvena Zvezda