Midtjylland x Genk Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League
| 📅 11/12/2025 17:45 |
 Midtjylland1.85 |
X 3.85 |
Genk  3.80 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Midtjylland x Genk:
🔮 Midtjylland wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Midtjylland, you can win up to $925.00!
The main points for the tip for Midtjylland x Genk:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Midtjylland in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $156.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Genk in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $185.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Midtjylland scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Midtjylland matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Genk conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Midtjylland is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Midtjylland vs Genk:
Lets analyze the match between FC Midtjylland and KRC Genk in the UEFA Europa League, which will take place at MCH Arena, the home of Midtjylland. The Danish team arrives with an impressive home record: scored 19 goals and conceded only 3 in the last 5 games at their stadium, with 4 wins and just 1 draw. Additionally, their offensive dominance is clear with an average of 18 shots per game (9 on target) compared to only 6 from the opponent. Ball possession also favors Midtjylland significantly (63% vs 37%). Meanwhile, Genk has more modest away stats: averaging fewer goals (8 in the last five away games), conceding more goals (9), and having a lower average of favorable shots (10) compared to their opponent.
Median odds indicate a slight advantage for the home team with win odds at 1.85, a draw at 3.8, and an away win around 3.78; after normalizing the implied probabilities, we get approximately: Midtjylland win ~49%, draw ~24%, Genk win ~27%. Considering Midtjyllands superior offensive stats at home, their strong defense, and recent dominance, my fair estimate for the probabilities would be close to this or even slightly more favorable to the Danish team.
The Bets Kenya model suggests very low predicted odds for the home team (~1.48), indicating a high probability (>67%) of their victory; meanwhile, the predicted odds for a draw (~5.52) and away win (~6.95) are too high, reflecting a low chance of these outcomes according to the model.
📰 News: FC Midtjylland is on a winning streak after recent big wins in the Danish league and is confident, especially due to their offensive performance led by Franculino Djú, who is the top scorer in the local league with an incredible 14 goals so far! Meanwhile, Genk is shaken by a recent heavy defeat in Belgium but has an important return of midfielder Zakaria El Ouahdi to try to react in Europe.
📈 Positional Analysis: Midtjylland holds a higher position in the Europa League group, maintaining good morale while aiming to stay second; Genk is in a more delicate situation, trying to recover from recent domestic and international setbacks.
Given all this, my recommendation is to bet on FC Midtjyllands victory, which shows a significant positive expected value against the final odds offered by the bookmakers (around +21% EV). I fully agree with the Bets Club models suggestion — they captured well this clear superiority of the home team through both statistics and current team form! ⚽🔥
Suggested Bet: FC Midtjylland Win
(Expected value calculated: +21%)
Betting on a draw or an away win doesnt seem to have value at this moment given the available data — the chances are lower, as shown by the solid defensive numbers of the Danes playing at their own MCH Arena.
Looking for another bookie to bet on Midtjylland x Genk?
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Analysis from Midtjylland x Genk for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December
🏟️ Midtjylland X Genk – UEFA Europa League
📅 11 of December, 2025 – 17:45
🔵 Midtjylland – Winning probability: 67.03% | Fair line: 1.49
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 17.26% | Fair line: 5.79
🔴 Genk – Winning probability: 15.71% | Fair line: 6.37
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Midtjylland
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks
When the best bet on Midtjylland x Genk is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1451823 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Latest news on the match between Midtjylland and Genk
FC Midtjylland: FC Midtjylland entered the Danish winter break on a high note after a dominant period at the end of 2024 and early 2025, which included a 5-1 thrashing of FC Nordsjælland in the first leg of the Danish Cup quarter-finals and a 3-3 draw against Viborg in the Superliga, following a 6-0 victory over the same opponents a few days earlier; the teams offensive momentum was led by rising striker Franculino Djú, who tops the league scoring charts with 14 goals, while the club continues to benefit from its reputation in set pieces with long throws, a refined tactic under former coach Andreas Grønnemark that has yielded dozens of goals in recent seasons. Despite a recent 3-1 defeat to Kolding IF in the Danish Womens Cup, the mens team enters the break confident and with an expanded squad that should keep them in the title race in the league and cup.
KRC Genk: KRC Genk recently suffered a 3-0 home defeat against Royal Antwerp in the Belgian Pro League, as they prepare for a UEFA Europa League clash against FC Midtjylland on December 11, 2025. Midfielder Zakaria El Ouahdi, wearing shirt number 77 and mainly playing on the right side, is expected to participate in the upcoming European match, as Genk seeks to recover from their league loss.
UEFA Europa League table analysis for Midtjylland x Genk
No table analysis was provided for this match.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Midtjylland x Genk
Should you bet on Midtjylland?
🔵 Midtjylland: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 67.03% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.85. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 670 times – this would give you a profit of $569.50
- And would lose other 330 times – having a loss of -$330.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$239.50.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.85. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 170 times – profiting $484.50;
- And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$345.50.
Is it a good idea to bet on Genk?
🔴 Genk: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 160 times – profiting $448.00;
- And would lose other 840 times – having a loss of -$840.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$392.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Midtjylland x Genk
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Midtjylland
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Midtjylland x Genk
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Midtjylland, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Midtjylland.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Midtjylland.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Midtjylland x Genk
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.
