Roma x Bologna Betting tips for March 19 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for Roma x Bologna, Thursday, 19/3/2026

📅 19/3/2026 20:00

Roma 1.80

X 3.35

Bologna 4.56

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Roma x Bologna:

🔮 Bologna wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bologna, you can win up to $2280.00!

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Important information for your tip for Roma x Bologna:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Roma in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-7.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bologna in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $549.0.
👉 Bologna did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Bologna scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Bologna, Roma scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Bologna matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Bologna is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 5 wins in a row in its last road matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Roma vs Bologna?

Lets analyze the match between Roma and Bologna at the Stadio Olimpico, which is Romas usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. Roma has a solid home record with 3 wins and no losses in the last 5 games, averaging 2.2 goals per game and conceding only 0.8 goals. Bologna, on the other hand, has an impeccable away record with 5 consecutive wins, averaging 1.6 goals scored and only 0.2 goals conceded per away game.

The implied probabilities of median odds are: Roma win (1/1.8 = ~55.56%), draw (1/3.3 = ~30.30%), Bologna win (1/4.56 = ~21.93%). Normalizing to a total of 100%, we get approximately: Roma 52%, draw 28%, Bologna 20%. This indicates a clear favoritism for Roma.

Considering the balanced offensive stats of both teams but taking into account key injuries in Roma — such as Dovbyk, Ferguson, and Dybala — which may impact their offensive power; also Ndicka is suspended for upcoming matches — this could weaken their defense as well.

Bologna comes in strong with recent good results both in the cup and the national league, showing physical and tactical strength; however, playing at the Stadio Olimpico against a traditionally strong home team is always challenging.

Fair odds calculation:

• Roma victory: around @1.90 — considering their historical home dominance but accounting for key absences;
• Draw: @3.40 — plausible given defensive balance;
• Bologna victory: @4.50 — a possible surprise given their good recent away form.

Expected value (EV) analysis:

• Betting on the visitor (Bologna) offers a positive EV according to the Bets Kenya model (+21%), indicating value in this bet;
• Betting on Roma win or draw does not currently offer significant positive expected value due to uncertainties from injuries;

📈 Positional Analysis:
Roma aims to stay firm to secure a spot in European competitions while dealing with internal pressure for results even at home; Bologna wants to capitalize on their good form to climb positions or better consolidate in the national table — this increases the visitors motivation in this important Europa League match.

📰 Relevant News:
Roma suffers significant absences that may affect offensive and defensive performance; meanwhile, Bologna is in a positive phase highlighted by Santiago Castros recent decisive goal — boosting collective confidence despite the tough challenge away from their usual grounds.

Final suggestion: I agree with the Bets Kenya model by indicating higher value on a Bologna win (@5), because despite historical difficulties away against big teams like Roma, their recent good performances combined with the important absences of the Romans increase the real chances of this surprising result happening.
Therefore, my recommendation is to bet on the Bologna winner, taking advantage of this excellent expected value estimated above of +20%! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Roma x Bologna for the UEFA Europa League – 19 of March

The latest news about Roma x Bologna

Roma: Roma is dealing with a short-term injury list ahead of matchday 29: forward Dovbyk is out until matchday 32, key midfielder Fergusons season has ended, forward Dybala will not be available again until matchday 36, and winger Soule remains doubtful, while defender Ndicka is serving a suspension that keeps him out of matchday 30. These absences come as the club prepares for the Serie A clash against Como, a game that could be decisive in their quest for a Champions League spot.

Bologna: Bologna has experienced a busy period both in the cup and the league, with Santiago Castro stealing the spotlight by scoring the decisive goal and earning a top rating in the Coppa Italia victory over Parma on December 4, 2025, while teammate Federico Bernardeschi continued to impress in Serie A, earning a 7 rating in the tight draw against Torino on February 15, 2025; the club will face Udinese in the league on February 23, 2026, a match highlighted on the TV schedule for the day, along with a fixture against Sassuolo scheduled for December 2025. Off the field, Bologna launched a new multi-year partnership with C.P. Company, featuring a custom “Goggle” jacket to be worn by players and staff on domestic and European trips, strengthening the clubs growing brand presence.

Table analysis for the game between Roma and Bologna

Roma: The match is important for Roma, which is in 8th place with 16 points, on the edge of the playoff zone for qualification. A positive result will allow the team to get closer to the teams ahead, consolidating their stay among the qualified or even moving up the table. The competition is fierce, and every point counts to secure a spot in the next phases of the Europa League. Therefore, Roma needs to earn points to keep their chances of success in the championship.

Bologna: The game is also relevant for Bologna, which is in 10th place with 15 points, just behind Roma. The team is close to the playoff zone and seeks to recover to enter the qualification zone for decisive phases. The match is a valuable opportunity for Bologna to earn important points against a direct opponent, potentially climbing the standings and improving their prospects in the tournament.

Summary: This confrontation is important for both teams, as they compete for similar positions in the table and aim to secure or win a spot in the UEFA Europa League playoffs. The result will have a direct impact on the qualification race, making the game highly relevant for Roma and Bologna.

Odds and handicap movements for Roma x Bologna

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Roma x Bologna.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Roma x Bologna

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Roma and Bologna.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1503194 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it worth betting on Roma?

🔵 Roma: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 47.58%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 480 times – this would give you a profit of $384.00
• And would lose other 520 times – having a loss of -$520.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$136.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.99% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $587.50;
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$162.50.

Is it worth betting on Bologna?

🔴 Bologna: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.43%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.56. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 270 times – profiting $961.20;
• And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$231.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Roma x Bologna

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Roma
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Roma x Bologna

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Roma and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Roma.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Bologna.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Roma x Bologna

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Roma x Bologna