SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League
| 📅 11/12/2025 20:00 |
 SC Freiburg1.43 |
X 4.43 |
FC Salzburg  5.95 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg:
🔮 SC Freiburg wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on SC Freiburg, you can win up to $715.00!
Some important points for the tip for SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg:
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $165.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on FC Salzburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-80.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, SC Freiburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, FC Salzburg scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 SC Freiburg is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for SC Freiburg vs FC Salzburg:
⚽ SC Freiburg is coming strong for the match against FC Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League, playing at their stadium, Europa-Park-Stadion, which is a true fortress for them. With an average of 2.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game at home in recent matches, along with clear dominance in ball possession (60% versus 53% for Salzburg) and more accurate shots (7 to 4), the Germans have a tactical and technical advantage. Salzburg, on the other hand, shows a more irregular performance away from home with a lower average of goals scored (1.6) and a higher conceded average (1.2).
📈 In the German Bundesliga table, Freiburg is well positioned in ninth place with high morale after a convincing recent 4-0 victory over Mainz. This gives the team extra motivation to maintain their good form in the Europa League. Conversely, Salzburg has mixed results recently in the Austrian league.
📰 The news reinforce this analysis: Freiburg has a full squad for the European competition and comes energized after a quick recovery in the national championship; Salzburg remains in good shape but lacks consistency in recent games.
💡 We calculated fair probabilities based on statistics and median market odds: Freiburg victory around 63%, draw about 21%, and Salzburg win close to 16%. This results in approximate fair odds of 1.58 for Freiburg win, 4.74 for a draw, and 6.37 for Salzburg win.
Compared to the final odds offered by bookmakers (1.42 / draw: 4.75 / away: 7), there is positive value especially in betting on the home team — which has an EV estimated above +5%, indicating a good opportunity! The Bets Kenya model suggests an odds value that is too low for the home win (~1.13) while absurdly overestimating the chances of a draw or away win — it doesn’t make sense given the solid statistics presented for Freiburg playing at home.
Suggested Bet: Freiburg victory 🏠 with a positive expected value estimated above +5%. Now is the time to take advantage of this clear home advantage combined with demonstrated technical superiority!
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg?
If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:
Analysis from SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December
🏟️ SC Freiburg X FC Salzburg – UEFA Europa League
📅 11 of December, 2025 – 20:00
🔵 SC Freiburg – Winning probability: 88.19% | Fair line: 1.13
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 7.92% | Fair line: 12.63
🔴 FC Salzburg – Winning probability: 3.89% | Fair line: 25.69
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 SC Freiburg
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between SC Freiburg and FC Salzburg.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1451823 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
Latest news on the match between SC Freiburg and FC Salzburg
SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg started the 2025-26 Bundesliga season with disappointing 0-2 losses to Augsburg and Köln, but the team quickly recovered as several players called up for international duty performed better. The squad – now reduced to 27 members after the departure of midfielder Merlin Röhl – is fully eligible for the Europa League. Coach Julian Schuster, who defended the decision to release Röhl without a direct replacement, emphasized that there is no obvious gap in the squad and that the club can still fight for a spot in European qualification, especially after the recent 4-0 victory over Mainz, which had three Freiburg players included in the “Team of the Day” and a solid defensive performance highlighted by veteran defender Matthias Ginter. The team will travel to face Heidenheim aiming to break a four-match away league winless streak, as well as maintain good form in the DFB-Pokal, where the goalkeeper helped secure a clean sheet victory against Darmstadt to reach the quarter-finals, despite UEFA reprimanding for the illegal use of fireworks during the Europa League match against FC Utrecht.
Red Bull Salzburg: Red Bull Salzburg continues its good form in the 2025-26 Austrian Bundesliga, securing an away 2-0 victory over Wolfsberger on December 12 and a 1-1 draw against Sturm Graz on November 30, with defender Jannik Schuster starting both matches and contributing solidly to the defense. Recent form includes a 3-2 defeat to Wacker St. Gallen on November 23 and a 1-1 draw with St. Pölten on November 9, while young midfielder Frans Krätzig received a 6.8 rating in the 2-0 win over FC Blau Weiss Linz. Looking ahead, Salzburg’s next match will be in the UEFA Europa League quarter-finals on December 11, 2025, when they will face SC Freiburg at home.
Table analysis for the match between SC Freiburg and FC Salzburg
No table analysis was provided for this match.
Tips for the Match Odds market for SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg
Is betting on SC Freiburg worth it?
🔵 SC Freiburg: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 88.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.43. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 880 times – profiting $378.40;
- And would lose other 120 times – having a loss of -$120.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$258.40.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.92%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.43. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 80 times – profiting $274.40;
- And would lose other 920 times – losing -$920.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$645.60.
Should you bet on FC Salzburg?
🔴 FC Salzburg: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 3.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.95. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 40 times – profiting $198.00;
- And would have lost other 960 times – with a loss of -$960.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$762.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 SC Freiburg
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.5 SC Freiburg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 SC Freiburg.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 SC Freiburg.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SC Freiburg x FC Salzburg
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
