SK Brann x Fenerbahce Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League

Our betting tip for SK Brann x Fenerbahce, Thursday, 11/12/2025

📅 11/12/2025 20:00

SK Brann 3.22

X 3.58

Fenerbahce 2.10

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for SK Brann x Fenerbahce:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for SK Brann x Fenerbahce

Important information for your tip for SK Brann x Fenerbahce:

👉 If you had bet $100 on SK Brann in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-56.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fenerbahce in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $49.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, SK Brann scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, SK Brann conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 road matches, Fenerbahce has not lost any of them.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for SK Brann vs Fenerbahce:

Lets analyze the match between SK Brann and Fenerbahçe at Brann Stadion, which is the usual stadium of SK Brann, with a capacity of about 17,500 fans, ensuring a family-friendly environment and a supportive atmosphere for the home team.

📈 Positioning analysis: SK Brann comes from a solid season in Eliteserien under coach Eirik Horneland, maintaining good form at home with an average of 2 goals scored per game and only 1 conceded. Meanwhile, Fenerbahçe shows more impressive offensive numbers away from home (average of 3 goals scored), but faces some recent internal turbulence that could impact their performance.

📰 Relevant news: SK Brann is in the process of stadium renovation and has strengthened its squad with a Norwegian international striker, showing ambition for the season. On the other hand, Fenerbahçe is dealing with off-field controversies involving key players and a recent coaching change after elimination from the Champions League. These factors could negatively affect the Turkish teams focus and performance.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are: SK Brann win ~28%, draw ~25%, Fenerbahçe win ~47%. Considering recent stats (goals scored/conceded, ball possession) and team news, I adjust these probabilities to approximately: SK Brann win around 30%, draw around 27%, and Fenerbahçe win around 43%.

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately: 3.33 for SK Brann win, 3.70 for draw, and 2.33 for Fenerbahçe win.

Analyzing the expected values of the final odds offered by bookmakers compared to my fair odds:
– SK Brann EV ≈ ((3.3 / 3.33) -1)*100 = -0.9%
– Draw EV ≈ ((3.5 / 3.7) -1)*100 = -5%
– Fenerbahçe EV ≈ ((2.1 /2 .33)-1)*100 = -9%

No bet shows a significant positive expected value according to my analysis; however, the Bets Kenya model suggests value in the draw (EV +4.5%), while I see this option as unfavorable due to the adjusted probabilities considering internal team factors.

Final suggestion:
Despite Fenerbahçes apparent technical superiority away against a solid opponent playing at home with strong local support — plus the off-field difficulties faced by the Turkish team — I believe this match will be balanced.
I do not see clear bets with expected value above usual criteria (>5%). Therefore, I recommend caution or exploring alternative markets such as both teams to score or Asian handicap light.
If betting according to the Bets Kenya model, I would bet on the draw with their slight positive advantage (+4.5%), but without much confidence due to external negative factors for the visitor.
⚽️💡 #StayTuned #EuropaLeague #SKBrannVsFenerbahçe

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Analysis from SK Brann x Fenerbahce for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for SK Brann x Fenerbahce right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1451823 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

The latest news about SK Brann x Fenerbahce

SK Brann: SK Brann started the 2025 season under coach Eirik Horneland, after his reappointment at the end of 2023, continuing the strong campaign of 2024 where the club finished fourth in Eliteserien, securing a spot in the Europa Conference League playoffs; the summer transfer window of 2025 saw the arrival of Norwegian international striker Jørgen Strand and the departure of experienced midfielder Sivert Heltne Nilsen to a Swedish club, while Brann also announced the beginning of a step-by-step renovation of the historic Brann Stadion, aiming to increase capacity and improve amenities for fans, with construction scheduled to start in spring 2026.

Fenerbahçe: In early December 2025, Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 with their rival Galatasaray in the Intercontinental Derby, after the equalizer in stoppage time by Jhon Duran, a celebration that led to a criminal complaint from Galatasaray and a pending disciplinary review; the teams next league game will be against Istanbul Başakşehir amidst controversy, while off-field midfielder Mert Hakan Yandas is detained awaiting trial in a broad investigation into football betting, and transfer rumors link Borussia Dortmund midfielder Emre Can as a target for Fenerbahçe (along with Beşiktaş and Galatasaray) and a MLS club closely monitoring Fenerbahçes own Fred; the club also recently ended José Mourinhos short stint after the Champions League playoff loss to Benfica.

UEFA Europa League table analysis for SK Brann x Fenerbahce

No table analysis was provided for this match.

Tips for the Match Odds market for SK Brann x Fenerbahce

Is it worth betting on SK Brann?

🔵 SK Brann: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.02% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.22. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $555.00
• And would lose other 750 times – losing -$750.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$195.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.6% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.58. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $748.20
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$38.20 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on Fenerbahce worth it?

🔴 Fenerbahce: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 46.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 460 times – profiting $506.00;
• And would lose other 540 times – having a loss of -$540.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$34.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match SK Brann x Fenerbahce

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 SK Brann
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SK Brann x Fenerbahce

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 SK Brann and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 SK Brann.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 SK Brann.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SK Brann x Fenerbahce

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.