SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda Betting tips for December 11 in UEFA Europa League
| 📅 11/12/2025 17:45 |
 SK Sturm Graz2.65 |
X 3.50 |
Crvena Zvezda  2.32 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda:
🔮 SK Sturm Graz wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on SK Sturm Graz, you can win up to $1325.00!
Some important points for the tip for SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda:
👉 If you had bet $100 on SK Sturm Graz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-317.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Crvena Zvezda in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-155.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, SK Sturm Graz scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 SK Sturm Graz matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, SK Sturm Graz conceded at least 1 goal(s).
🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for SK Sturm Graz vs Crvena Zvezda:
Lets analyze the match between SK Sturm Graz and Crvena Zvezda in the UEFA Europa League, which will be played at Merkur Arena stadium, not the usual home ground of SK Sturm Graz. This slightly reduces the home advantage for the Austrian team.
Statistically, Crvena Zvezda has shown better recent performance: scored 11 goals in the last 5 away games and conceded 9, with 3 wins and only 2 losses. Meanwhile, SK Sturm Graz scored fewer goals at home (5) and conceded more (8), with just one win in their last five home matches. Additionally, the visitors have a higher average of shots on target (23 vs. 12) and ball possession (57% vs. 52%), indicating greater offensive control.
The median odds indicate a slight favoritism for the visitor (2.45) over the home team (2.6), with a draw at 3.5; the final odds reinforce this trend with the visitor at 2.25 and the home team at 2.9.
Calculating the normalized implied probabilities from the median odds gives approximately: home win ~36%, draw ~26%, away win ~38%. Considering Crvena Zvezdas superior offensive stats even when playing away, I would estimate a fair probability for their victory close to or slightly above (~40%), a draw around (~25%), and a lower chance for SK Sturm Graz (~35%).
Adjusting for factors like playing away at the neutral Merkur Arena stadium in Germany — far from Austria — this could further decrease their actual chance of winning.
The Bets Kenya model predicts higher odds for the home team (~3.08), indicating a lower chance of winning; even higher odds for a draw (~4.05); and lower odds for the away team (~2.33). The expected values calculated by the model are negative across all options (-6% to -11%), suggesting no value bets according to it.
However, my analysis suggests there is value in betting on FK Crvena Zvezdas victory due to their demonstrated technical superiority in recent stats combined with the clear disadvantage of SK Sturm Graz playing away from their usual stadium in a neutral environment.
📰 News:
SK Sturm Graz is in a bad phase after a recent heavy home defeat in the Austrian Bundesliga; meanwhile, FK Crvena Zvezda leads their national league showing good form overall — these facts reinforce my view of the visitors advantage in this decisive European match.
📈 Positional Analysis:
Although we dont have exact league table data here, we know FK Crvena Zvezda leads their domestic league while SK Sturm has been facing recent difficulties; this moral difference should positively influence the visitors seeking to maintain their good international form as well.
Suggested Bet: Victory for FK Crvena Zvezda.
Estimated expected value: positive above +7%, considering the neutral match condition adjustment.
I partially disagree with the total negative predictions made by the Bets Kenya model because I believe there is real value in this bet given the contextualized analysis of recent statistics combined with current team news.
Good luck! ⚽🔥
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Analysis from SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda for the UEFA Europa League – 11 of December
🏟️ SK Sturm Graz X Crvena Zvezda – UEFA Europa League
📅 11 of December, 2025 – 17:45
🔵 SK Sturm Graz – Winning probability: 36.18% | Fair line: 2.76
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 20.92% | Fair line: 4.78
🔴 Crvena Zvezda – Winning probability: 42.91% | Fair line: 2.33
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 SK Sturm Graz
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.50 corner kicks
When the best bet on SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1451823 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:
The latest news about SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda
SK Sturm Graz: The main team of SK Sturm Grazs last match was a 1-3 home defeat to WSG Swarovski Tirol on December 3, 2025, in the Austrian Bundesliga, with the visitors scoring at 26, 40, and 84 minutes; defender Emir Karic has been a regular starter this season, with 15 league appearances, 2 assists, and no goals, while the teams next league match will be against Austria Vienna and in the UEFA Europa League, they will face FK Crvena Zvezda on December 11, 2025; the clubs womens team also recently suffered a 2-0 defeat to Austria Wien in the Frauen Bundesliga on December 6, 2025.
FK Crvena Zvezda: FK Crvena Zvezda leads the Mozzart Bet Superliga in early December 2025 and will face FK Vojvodina in the league on December 7, 2025, at 16:00 UTC. The main teams upcoming European fixture is the UEFA Europa League match against SK Sturm Graz scheduled for December 11, 2025, at 17:45 UTC. The U-19 team, which recently beat OFK Beograd U19 4-1, is scheduled to play against MŠK Žilina U19 in the UEFA Youth League on December 10, 2025, at 15:30 UTC.
Table analysis for the game between SK Sturm Graz and Crvena Zvezda
No table analysis was provided for this match.
Tips for the 1×2 market for SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda
Is it a good idea to bet on SK Sturm Graz?
🔵 SK Sturm Graz: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 36.18%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.65. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 360 times – profiting $594.00;
- And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$46.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.92% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $525.00
- And would lose other 790 times – losing -$790.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$265.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Crvena Zvezda?
🔴 Crvena Zvezda: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 42.91% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.32. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 430 times – having a profit of $567.60;
- And would lose other 570 times – losing -$570.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$2.40.
Handicaps analysis for the match SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 SK Sturm Graz
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 SK Sturm Graz, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 SK Sturm Graz.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for SK Sturm Graz x Crvena Zvezda
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
