Auxerre x Metz Betting tips for December 7 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Auxerre x Metz, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 16:15

Auxerre 2.00

X 3.49

Metz 3.60

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Auxerre x Metz:

🔮 Auxerre wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Auxerre, you can win up to $1000.00!

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The main points for the tip for Auxerre x Metz:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Auxerre in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-190.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Metz in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-160.0.
👉 Auxerre did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Metz scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Auxerre matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Auxerre vs Metz?

Lets analyze the match between Auxerre and Metz, which will take place at Stade de lAbbé-Deschamps, Auxerres home ground. 🏟️

Odds analysis:
The median odds indicate a slight advantage for Auxerre (2.00) over the draw (3.49) and Metzs win (3.60). Converting these odds into implied probabilities and normalizing, we get approximately: 50% for Auxerre win, 28.7% for draw, and 27.8% for Metz win.

However, looking at recent team statistics, Auxerre has a weak home performance with only 1 win in their last 5 home games, averaging 0 goals per game recently as hosts and conceding more goals than they score (average of 1 goal conceded). Metz shows concerning away stats with a high average of goals conceded (more than 3 per game), but they also manage to score more goals away.

Fair odds analysis:
Considering the defensive fragility of both teams and Auxerres recent low offensive production even at home, fair odds should be slightly higher for the home team’s victory — around 2.20 — reflecting the actual betting risk.
For the draw, given the recent low number of draws but the tactical defensive possibility of both sides seeking important points in the lower part of the table, a fair odd close to 3.40 makes sense.
Metzs victory deserves an even higher fair odd due to their vulnerable defense away; something around 4.00 would be more appropriate.

Expected value of bets:
The Bets Kenya model suggests high positive value on betting for the home team’s win with EV above +26%, while dismissing bets on the draw or away team.
My analysis partially agrees: there is value in betting on Auxerre to win due to home advantage and the urgent need for points because of their poor position in the table.
But I warn that this is a very open match due to evident defensive weaknesses in both teams.

📈 Positioning analysis:
Auxerre is practically sunk in the danger zone with only nine points after fourteen games; Metz is slightly better with eleven points but also fighting against direct relegation.
Both desperately need to gather points here — this could increase their chances of attacking or playing cautiously to avoid losing.

📰 Relevant news:
Auxerre faces serious disciplinary issues (four expulsions so far), and their main striker Ryan Rodin has not yet debuted this season — limiting their offensive power.
Metz has been poor in recent matches, including an early elimination in the Cup against a weaker team; this could negatively affect morale but also increases urgency for recovery in this important game.

Final suggestion: Bet on Auxerre to win, because despite the difficulties, they play on their home ground where they have some psychological advantage and urgently need points to escape the red zone.
The final odds (~2) seem to offer value considering the risks involved (Estimated EV >20%).
However, be cautious of their slow offensive rhythm and possible surprises in such a balanced game!

Good luck! 🍀⚽

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Auxerre x Metz?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Auxerre x Metz, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Auxerre x Metz for the France Ligue 1 – 7 of December

When the best bet on Auxerre x Metz is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1449456 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Latest news on Auxerre x Metz

AJ Auxerre: AJ Auxerre is facing a tough start in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season, sitting near the relegation zone after 14 matches, with only two wins, three draws, and nine losses, a goal difference of -12, and nine points; their last league game ended in a 1-1 away draw against Paris FC on November 29, 2025. The club also drew attention for its disciplinary record, ranking among the worst in the league for red cards, having accumulated four dismissals in the first 13 rounds, a trend highlighted in betting analyses that classify it as a “red card risk.” In the Coupe de France, Auxerre is scheduled to face AS Monaco in the round of 64 on December 20, 2025, at Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps. Striker Ryan Rodin has yet to make his Ligue 1 debut, with no appearances, goals, or assists so far.

FC Metz: FC Metz is currently struggling in Ligue 1, occupying 17th place after 14 matches, with a record of three wins, two draws, and nine losses, a goal difference of -17, and only 11 points. Their next league match will be at home against Stade Rennais on November 28, 2025, a crucial game as they fight to avoid relegation. In the Coupe de France, they were eliminated by the lower division team Entente Feignies-Aulnoye, losing 2-0, and also suffered heavy defeats to Paris Saint-Germain in recent league matches, highlighting the challenges they face in both competitions.

Table analysis for the game between Auxerre and Metz

Auxerre: Auxerre is in 18th place with 9 points, right in the relegation zone. At this stage of the season, the match against Metz is crucial to try to escape relegation, as every point can make a difference to avoid disaster. The team urgently needs to gather points to escape the bottom and seek a reaction this season. A game to give everything on the field and fight for survival in Ligue 1! ⚠️

Metz: Metz is in 17th place with 11 points and is also in the relegation zone, just two points ahead of Auxerre. Therefore, this game is essential for Metz to try to distance itself from relegation and secure its place in the top division. A victory would bring significant relief and boost hope in the final stretch of the season. They will want to make the most of home advantage to escape this tricky situation. 🔥

Summary: A very important match for both teams, which are fighting directly to avoid relegation. The confrontation is almost like a “life or death” game at the bottom of the table, where victory can be decisive for their hopes of staying in Ligue 1. ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Auxerre x Metz

Should you bet on Auxerre?

🔵 Auxerre: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 62.26% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 620 times – profiting $620.00;
• And would lose other 380 times – losing -$380.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$240.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.15% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.49. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $473.10;
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$336.90.

Is it worth betting on Metz?

🔴 Metz: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 18.59%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $494.00;
• And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$316.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Auxerre x Metz

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Auxerre
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Auxerre x Metz

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Auxerre and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Auxerre.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Metz.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Auxerre x Metz

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.