Auxerre x Nice Betting tips for May 10 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Auxerre x Nice, Sunday, 10/5/2026

📅 10/5/2026 19:00

Auxerre 2.40

X 3.36

Nice 2.84

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Auxerre x Nice:

🔮 Auxerre wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Auxerre, you can win up to $1200.00!

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Important information for your tip for Auxerre x Nice:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Auxerre in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-89.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nice in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $180.0.
👉 In the last 3 Nice matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Nice has not lost any of them.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Auxerre vs Nice?

Auxerre vs Nice (Ligue 1) — value read at Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps

Based on recent numbers (last 5 and the broader “same_any” sample), the match looks balanced: both teams have a very similar expected goals average (Auxerre 1.0 vs Nice 1.0) and concede at the same rate (1.0 conceded). In shots, Auxerre shows more volume (11 for / 11 against; on target 5/4), while Nice tends to have fewer total attempts (8 for / 12 against; on target also 5/4). This supports a scenario where no side clearly dominates, so the draw becomes a natural market outcome.

STEP 1 — “Fair” probabilities adjusted to sum 100%
From your trio of implied median odds I normalized the chances to remove bookmaker margin. Estimated result:
Auxerre win: 39.7%
Draw: 28.6%
Nice win: 31.7%

Cross-checking with the final odds and calculating EV (expected value)
Fair odds I would project from these probabilities:
• Auxerre ~ @2.52
• Draw ~ @3.50
• Nice ~ @3.15

And now comparing with the posted final odds:
• AUXERRE to win @2.45: EV ≈ (2.45/2.52 – 1)×100 = -2.7%
• X @3.40: EV ≈ (3.40/3.50 – 1)×100 = -2.9%
• NICE to win @2.875: EV ≈ (2.875/3.15 – 1)×100 = -8.8%

By my criterion (“higher EV” must be > +5%), there is no positive-value bet today. The market is pricing very close to my statistical view — and when that happens its generally not worth the risk.

📰 News that affected the match read:

– Auxerre are under pressure in the relegation fight (16th), winless in four league matches and missing key players (Omar El Azzouzi, Noel Buayi-Kiala and Fredrik Oppegaard). That limits immediate attacking upside.
– Nice have been inconsistent recently (only one win in the last five) but arrive with some relief as they don’t have major suspensions — only Yoan Ndayishimiye is unavailable.

📈 League position / need for points:

– Since both are in the lower part of Ligue 1 (Auxerre in direct relegation danger; Nice just above), expect a psychologically tight game — especially because their recent goals-for/against profiles in the provided samples are similar.
That further supports the draw as a plausible result… but there isn’t enough price edge to make it a value bet.

And about the Bets Kenya model:

– Your model produced implied probabilities close to market median/standard odds and returned negative EVs across the three markets (-3% home / -10% draw / -2% away). I agree with the general direction because my calculations also end without any bet > +5% EV.
If I had to pick something by match profile it would be to look at the draw as a statistical tendency… however your final odd is short against my fair price (~3.x), so it still lacks real value to back now.

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Analysis from Auxerre x Nice for the France Ligue 1 – 10 of May

The latest news about Auxerre x Nice

Auxerre: Auxerre occupy 16th place in Ligue 1 and are fully embroiled in the relegation fight. The team has not won in their last four league matches and would currently enter a two-legged playoff if they finish the season in 16th. In their most recent sequence of five matches, the side recorded a 3-2 defeat to Lyon, a 2-2 draw with Monaco, a goalless draw with Nantes, a 1-1 draw with Le Havre (the most recent meeting was on 5 April) and a 3-0 victory over Brest. That amounts to only one win, three draws and one loss, with eight goals scored and six conceded. Key injuries keep Omar El Azzouzi, Noel Buayi-Kiala and Fredrik Oppegaard out. Lassine Sinayoko stood out: he earned an excellent rating after scoring a goal, providing an assist and registering five key passes in the 3-1 win over Angers. Sékou Mara also contributed, with two goals and an assist in the same game, leaving the team now looking for points in upcoming fixtures, such as the clash to come against Angers.

OGC Nice: OGC Nice sit 15th in Ligue 1, with 31 points from 32 games (seven wins, ten draws and 15 losses), but have struggled recently. In their last five fixtures the team managed only one win, three draws and one loss: a 1-1 draw with Marseille on 26 April, a 0-0 with Lille, a 1-1 against Le Havre, a Coupe de France win over Strasbourg and a 3-1 league defeat to Strasbourg on 4 April. For the upcoming match against Lens, Nice will have only Yoan Ndayishimiye unavailable through injury, while there are no suspended players.

Table analysis for the match between Auxerre and Nice

Auxerre: The game looks like a “do whatever you can to try to get out of the bad zone” ⚠️. Auxerre sit in 16th with 28 points and appear with Relegation Playoffs as the promotion/relegation scenario. As they are very close to the group above (Nice are 15th with 31), any result can directly affect the fight against relegation/playoffs. Even without being able to state it is “guaranteed” by the round’s data, the need to pick up points is clear because the gap to 15th is only a few points.

Nice: For Nice, the match is also important because they sit just above Auxerre: Nice are 15th with 31 points and are trying to “hold” that safer band. The difference to Auxerre is small (3 points), so a result here can mean overtaking (or losing position) right in the middle of the table. With the season still in its final phase (match scheduled for 10/05), getting points is likely to be decisive to reduce pressure in the following rounds.

Summary: A very important match for both, since it directly involves the bottom part of the table, where getting points can decide the battle to stay up (Auxerre) and consolidate the safety zone (Nice). 🔥

Odds and handicap movements for Auxerre x Nice

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Auxerre x Nice (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for Auxerre x Nice

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Auxerre x Nice right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1541911 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on Auxerre worth it?

🔵 Auxerre: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 45.97% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 460 times – profiting $644.00;
• And would lose other 540 times – losing -$540.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$104.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.27% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.36. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $590.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Is betting on Nice worth it?

🔴 Nice: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 28.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.84. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $533.60
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$176.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Auxerre x Nice

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Auxerre
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Auxerre x Nice

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Auxerre and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Auxerre.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Auxerre x Nice

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Auxerre x Nice