Auxerre x Rennes Betting tips for February 22 in France Ligue 1
| 📅 22/2/2026 14:00 |
 Auxerre2.90 |
X 3.30 |
Rennes  2.37 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Auxerre x Rennes:
🔮 Rennes wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Rennes, you can win up to $1185.00!
The main points for the tip for Auxerre x Rennes:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Auxerre in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-305.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Rennes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $93.0.
👉 In the last 4 Rennes matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Rennes conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Rennes as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.
🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Auxerre vs Rennes?
Lets analyze the match between Auxerre and Rennes that will take place at Stade de lAbbé-Deschamps, Auxerres home ground. 🏟️
📈 In the Ligue 1 table, Auxerre is in a delicate situation in 16th place, fighting to escape the relegation zone with only 17 points in 22 games. Rennes is in 6th position with 34 points, aiming to maintain its spot in European competitions. This difference in standings shows Rennes has more quality and motivation to win, while Auxerre desperately needs points to move away from danger.
Looking at recent stats: Auxerre has scored an average of only 1 goal per game at home in the last five matches and conceded about 2 goals per game — a weak offensive performance and vulnerable defense. Additionally, their possession rate is low (43%), indicating difficulty controlling the game. Conversely, Rennes has a higher possession rate (57%) even when playing away and also scores about one goal per away game.
The median odds indicate: Auxerre win at 2.9, draw at 3.3, Rennes win at 2.37 — translating to normalized implied probabilities approximately: home win ~33%, draw ~30%, away win ~37%. Considering the fragile defensive stats of both teams but Renness overall higher quality and extra motivation after a recent coaching change that already yielded a big win against PSG 📰 (Rennes recently beat PSG after tactical change), my fair estimate would be close to these but with a slight edge to the visitor:
- Auxerre win: ~30%
- Draw: ~28%
- Rennes win: ~42%
Thus, fair odds would be approximately:
- Auxerre – fair odds ≈ 3.33
- Draw – fair odds ≈ 3.57
- Rennes – fair odds ≈ 2.38
It is clear that the final market odds are quite aligned with my fair estimates.
Analyzing the expected value (EV) of bets using these fair odds versus market odds:
- Bet on Auxerre has a negative EV (-19%) because it is overestimated;
- Bet on draw also has a negative EV (-10%);
- Bet on Rennes has a positive EV (~7%), confirming it as a value bet.
Final suggestion:
Betting on Rennes seems to be the best choice! They have more technical quality, better standings, and are motivated by their recent tactical change that already paid off against strong opponents.
The calculated expected value is positive (+7%), indicating a good risk-return ratio for this bet.
⚽🤑 Lets go all in on #Rennes!
📰 Key news:
– Stade Rennais recently defeated PSG shortly after changing their coach to Frédéric Haïse.
– Auxerre is struggling to escape relegation with modest recent performances.
These facts reinforce my confidence in a favorable bet on the visiting team in this match.
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Auxerre x Rennes?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Auxerre x Rennes, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Auxerre x Rennes for the France Ligue 1 – 22 of February
🏟️ Auxerre X Rennes – France Ligue 1
📅 22 of February, 2026 – 14:00
🔵 Auxerre – Winning probability: 27.90% | Fair line: 3.58
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 26.39% | Fair line: 3.79
🔴 Rennes – Winning probability: 45.71% | Fair line: 2.19
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Auxerre
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
Latest news on the match between Auxerre and Rennes
Auxerre: Auxerre has been busy in Ligue 1, securing a crucial 3-1 victory over Metz, the bottom team, on February 15, which helped them escape the relegation zone and keep their season alive, sitting at 16th place in the table; they started the month with a home draw against Paris FC on February 8 and are scheduled to face Stade Rennais away on February 22 as they continue their fight to avoid relegation.
Stade Rennes: Stade Rennes triggered a dramatic comeback in Ligue 1, ending a five-match winless streak with a 3-1 victory over league leaders Paris Saint-Germain on February 13, 2026, moving to fifth place with 34 points after 22 matches; the win came a few days after the club dismissed coach Habib Beye and appointed former Nice coach Frédéric Haïse, who is expected to implement a more flexible 3-4-2-1 system, and their next league match is scheduled for February 22, 2026, against AJ Auxerre.
France Ligue 1 table analysis for Auxerre x Rennes
Auxerre: Auxerre is in 16th place, currently in the relegation playoff zone, with 17 points. This match is crucial for the team because every point can be decisive in avoiding this direct threat of relegation. Winning or, at least, not losing will be essential to try to accumulate points and improve their position on the table, especially considering that the teams just above are still close in points. It is a life or death game for Auxerre, which urgently needs positive results to secure its stay in Ligue 1.
Rennes: Rennes appears in 6th place with 34 points, fighting for a spot in European competitions, possibly in the Conference League. The difference to the 5th place (Lille, with 34 points and a better goal difference) is very small, so this game is important for Rennes to maintain or even improve their position on the table and secure qualification for international tournaments. The match is essential to continue the fight for a European spot, bringing motivation and importance to the club.
Summary: This match is important for both teams: for Auxerre, a vital opportunity to escape the relegation zone, and for Rennes, a chance to consolidate their place in continental competitions. A confrontation with high pressure for one and a big fight for European objectives for the other! ⚽🔥
Odds and handicap movements for Auxerre x Rennes
We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Auxerre x Rennes.
Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 With a variation of 3.57%, the odds for Auxerre are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @2.8 for Auxerre and now the odds are @2.9.
📊 With a variation of 3.03%, the odds for Draw are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.3 for Draw and now the odds are @3.4.
📊 With a variation of -2.08%, the odds for Rennes are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @2.4 for Rennes and now the odds are @2.35.
📊 The main handicap is stable: the current handicap of 0.25 for Rennes is exactly the same from its opening.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 2.5 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the 1×2 market for Auxerre x Rennes
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Auxerre x Rennes right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1483644 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Is it worth betting on Auxerre?
🔵 Auxerre: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.9% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $532.00
- And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$188.00.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.39% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 260 times – profiting $598.00;
- And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$142.00.
Should you bet on Rennes?
🔴 Rennes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 45.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.37. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 460 times – this would give you a profit of $630.20
- And would have lost other 540 times – with a loss of -$540.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$90.20.
Handicaps analysis for the match Auxerre x Rennes
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Auxerre
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Auxerre x Rennes
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Auxerre and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Auxerre.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Auxerre x Rennes
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Auxerre x Rennes
Who is the favourite: Auxerre or Rennes?
From our analysis, the team that comes out as favourite is Rennes, with a win probability of 45.71%. Still, favourite does not guarantee a win!
Who will win: Auxerre x Rennes?
It is important to remember that sports betting offers no guarantees. However, our analysis indicates that Rennes is more likely to win, with an estimated probability of 45.71%. Betting involves risk—bet responsibly!
What are the chances of Auxerre beating Rennes today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Auxerre would take victory in roughly 28 of them versus Rennes.
What are the chances of Rennes beating Auxerre today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Rennes would take victory in roughly 46 of them against Auxerre.
Which team should I bet on: Auxerre or Rennes?
A successful bettor looks for positive expected value opportunities. Based on our analysis, we believe the best bet for this match is: Rennes Wins, with a positive expected value of 7.31%. Bet responsibly and manage your bankroll: avoid staking more than 2% of your funds!
How much is Auxerre paying today? See what you can win by betting on Auxerre x Rennes:
The odds for Auxerre to beat Rennes today are around 2.90. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh2900.00 if Auxerre wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Rennes paying today? See what you can win by betting on Auxerre x Rennes:
The average odds for Rennes to beat Auxerre today are 2.37. So a KSh1000 stake could pay KSh2370.00 if Rennes wins. Bet responsibly and remember outcomes are not certain.
