Le Havre x PSG Betting tips for February 28 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Le Havre x PSG, Saturday, 28/2/2026

📅 28/2/2026 20:05

Le Havre 9.00

X 5.78

PSG 1.25

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Le Havre x PSG:

🔮 Le Havre wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Le Havre, you can win up to $4500.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Le Havre x PSG:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Le Havre in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $435.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on PSG in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-65.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, PSG scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 PSG matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 PSG did not receive any yellow cards in the last 3 matches as the away team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, PSG conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Le Havre conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against PSG.
👉 PSG is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 6 away matches, it had at least 67.00% of possession.
👉 Even as a visitor, PSG won the last 3 head-to-head matches Le Havre´s territory

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Le Havre vs PSG:

Lets analyze the match between Le Havre and PSG at Stade Océane, which is Le Havres usual stadium, thus ensuring the home advantage for them. 🏟️

📈 Le Havre is in an intermediate position in the Ligue 1 table, with a decent home performance (3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 games), averaging 1.2 goals per game at home and conceding about 1 goal per match. PSG, on the other hand, dominates offensively and defensively: an average of 2 goals scored per away game, high ball possession (72%), and many shots on goal (22 attempts with 7 on target). This shows a visiting team much superior technically.

📰 Recent news shows PSG is on a high after securing a spot in the Champions League knockout stages with an exciting comeback against Monaco. Despite key injuries like Dembélé and Fabián Ruiz, the team maintains high mental strength according to coach Luis Enrique. External issues involving Achraf Hakimi might slightly affect the Parisian club environment. Le Havre is trying to recover after recent negative results in womens matches, but this does not directly impact their mens team.

Analyzing the median odds given by betting houses: Le Havre win @9.0 (implied probability ~11%), draw @5.78 (~17%), PSG win @1.27 (~79%). Normalizing these probabilities to sum to 100%, we get approximately:

• Le Havre win: ~10%
• Draw: ~16%
• PSG win: ~74%

Based on the offensive/defensive stats of the teams, current team context, and the fact that the game is at Le Havres stadium (no neutral ground), my fair estimate would be close to:

• home_pred_gpt: ~12% — considering a slight home advantage but clear technical inferiority;
• draw_pred_gpt: ~18% — moderate possibility due to the difficulty small teams face against giants;
• away_pred_gpt: ~70% — strong favoritism for PSG due to superior technical quality.

Calculating fair odds based on these probabilities would give approximate fair odds of:

• Home – Fair Odds GPT:@8.3
• Draw – Fair Odds GPT:@5.6
• Away – Fair Odds GPT:@1.43

Looking at the final odds offered (@9.5 for home win; @5.75 for draw; @1.285 for away win), we see a clear positive value in betting on the home team according to our EV calculation = ((9.5 /8.3) -1)*100 ≈ +14%. The final odds are higher than our estimated fair odds, indicating potential value in this risky but profitable bet if a surprise occurs.

However, I fully agree with the Bets Kenya club model to avoid bets on the draw or away win as both have negative EV or very low (<5%). The absolute favorite remains Paris Saint-Germain despite inherent football risks.

Final suggestion 🎯 :

• Positive value bet found in the surprising victory of Le Havre (@9+), as betting houses seem to overvalue this possibility given their overall weakness compared to the giant Paris Saint-Germain;

• Betting directly on the wanted favorite Paris Saint-Germain does not bring enough expected value at this moment;

Stay tuned for final lineups as injuries can significantly influence this match!

Looking for another bookie to bet on Le Havre x PSG?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Le Havre x PSG:

Analysis from Le Havre x PSG for the France Ligue 1 – 28 of February

The latest news about Le Havre x PSG

Le Havre AC: The womens team of Le Havre AC, competing in Frances Première Ligue Féminine, is currently eighth in the league after a recent 4-0 defeat to Paris FC and will look to recover when they host Olympique Lyonnais on March 10, 2026, at 18:00 UTC. The squad currently features forwards like Chancelle Effa Effa and Kelsey Araujo, midfielders including Sarah Kassi and Fanny Rossi, defenders such as Ángela Barón and Eden Le Guilly, along with goalkeepers Lisa Lichtfus and Elisa Launay.

Paris Saint-Germain: Paris Saint-Germain secured their spot in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 by drawing 2-2 away against Monaco, advancing 5-4 on aggregate. Désiré Doué was named man of the match, and Luis Enrique praised the teams mental strength after the comeback. The team remains at the top of Ligue 1 after surpassing Lens, although injuries to Ousmane Dembélé and Fabián Ruiz continue to limit options. Meanwhile, off-field issues persist, as defender Achraf Hakimi was ordered to stand trial on rape allegations, and the club agreed to pay €61 million to Kylian Mbappé to settle their long-standing legal dispute.

Table analysis for the game between Le Havre and PSG

Le Havre: Le Havre is in 13th place with 26 points, in a mid-table zone where the gap to international competition qualification groups is large and the risk of relegation is low. With a balanced campaign, the team has no clear chances of fighting for Champions League or Europa League spots, nor is it threatened with relegation to a lower division, making this match against PSG less decisive for their season goals. Still, facing the leader can be a good test for the squad and an opportunity to seek important points to improve their performance and position.

PSG: PSG leads Ligue 1 with 54 points, two more than the second-placed team. Every game is crucial to maintain the lead and secure the seasons title. The match against Le Havre, even against a team in the lower half of the table, is important for PSG to keep the advantage and stay firmly on course to win the championship. A victory here can increase pressure on direct competitors and boost the teams confidence.

Summary: This game is mainly important for PSG, which is fighting directly for the title and needs the three points to maintain leadership. For Le Havre, the match has less impact on the standings, but it is a relevant confrontation against the leader. ⚽🏆

How the handicap and odds moved for Le Havre x PSG

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Le Havre x PSG.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Le Havre x PSG

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Le Havre x PSG right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488452 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Le Havre?

🔵 Le Havre: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 11.94%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 9.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $960.00;
• And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$80.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 7.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.78. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 80 times – profiting $382.40;
• And would lose other 920 times – having a loss of -$920.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$537.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on PSG?

🔴 PSG: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 80.45% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.25. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 800 times – profiting $200.00;
• And would have lost other 200 times – with a loss of -$200.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$0.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Le Havre x PSG

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Le Havre
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Le Havre x PSG

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.0 Le Havre and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +1.75 Le Havre.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +1.75 Le Havre.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Le Havre x PSG

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.25 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Le Havre x PSG