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Home » Predictions » France Ligue 1 » Lille x Nantes Betting tips for January 4 in France Ligue 1
Saturday, 04 January 2025, 18h00 France Ligue 1
Lille Lille
PREDICTION Nantes Wins Probability 25% 1 X 2
Nantes Nantes
ODD: @6 Don't miss this prediction!

Lille x Nantes Betting tips for January 4 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Lille x Nantes, Saturday, 4/1/2025
📅 4/1/2025
18:00
Lille Lille
1.53
X
4.15
Nantes Nantes
6.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Lille x Nantes:

🔮 Nantes wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nantes, you can win up to $3000.00!

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The main points for the tip for Lille x Nantes:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lille in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-5.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nantes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-396.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Lille scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Nantes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Nantes, Lille scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Lille is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Lille has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Nantes playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Lille x Nantes for the France Ligue 1 – 4 of January

🏟️ Lille X Nantes – France Ligue 1
📅 4 of January, 2025 – 18:00
🔵 Lille – Winning probability: 56.88% | Fair line: 1.76
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 17.37% | Fair line: 5.76
🔴 Nantes – Winning probability: 25.75% | Fair line: 3.88
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Lille
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

When the best bet on Lille x Nantes is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1241796 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Lille x Nantes

Is it worth betting on Lille?

🔵 Lille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 56.88% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.53. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 570 times – profiting $302.10;
  • And would have lost other 430 times – with a loss of -$430.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$127.90.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.15. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $535.50;
  • And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$294.50.

Is betting on Nantes worth it?

🔴 Nantes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 25.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 260 times – profiting $1300.00;
  • And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$560.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Lille x Nantes

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Lille
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lille x Nantes

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Lille and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Lille.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Nantes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lille x Nantes

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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