Lorient x Auxerre Betting tips for March 1 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Lorient x Auxerre, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 16:15

Lorient 2.03

X 3.20

Auxerre 3.70

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Lorient x Auxerre:

🔮 Auxerre wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Auxerre, you can win up to $1850.00!

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The main points for the tip for Lorient x Auxerre:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Lorient in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $494.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Auxerre in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-245.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Lorient scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Lorient is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Lorient vs Auxerre:

⚽ In the match between Lorient and Auxerre, taking place at Stade Yves Allainmat-Le Moustoir, Lorient has a clear advantage playing at home, their usual stadium. The team has a great recent performance with 4 wins and only 1 draw in the last 5 home games, averaging 2 goals per game and conceding very few (0.4 goals per game). Auxerre, on the other hand, is struggling this season, sitting in the relegation zone with a low average of goals scored (1 goal per away game) and more vulnerable defensively (1.4 goals conceded away).

📈 The teams positions in the table reinforce this analysis: Lorient comfortably sits in ninth place while Auxerre fights to escape the 16th spot, desperately needing points to avoid relegation. This should increase pressure on Auxerre, which may become more offensive.

📰 Recent news shows Lorient drew an exciting game against Nice with highlights for Bamba Dieng, indicating good offensive form; Auxerre managed an important victory against Metz to try to escape the dangerous zone.

Analyzing the median odds offered by bookmakers: Lorient win (2.03), draw (3.2), Auxerre win (3.7), the implied normalized probabilities are about 49%, 31%, and 20%, respectively.

However, considering Lorients solid defensive stats at home combined with Auxerres defensive fragility away, I would estimate fair adjusted probabilities close to:

• Lorient wins: ~55%
• Draw: ~27%
• Auxerre wins: ~18%

Thus, fair odds would be approximately: Lorient @1.82; draw @3.70; Auxerre @5.50.

We see that current odds offer interesting value in the market for the visiting team win (Final Away Odds around @3.9 vs my fair @5.50) — but this contradicts the overall scenario where the visiting team is clearly disadvantaged both statistically and in the table.

The betting model from Bets Kenya indicates positive value only on the visitors win (+31% EV), but I disagree with this view because the data shows a higher realistic probability for a home win or even a draw, given the visitors need to attack more.

Final suggestion:

• Bet on Lorient to win, as well as recent favorable stats and playing at their traditional stadium;
• Be cautious with bets on the visitor despite attractive odds — high risk;
• Consider betting on the “Double Chance” market favoring Lorient or draw as a safe option;

So? Let’s take advantage of this detailed analysis to make that smart bet? 🎯💰

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Lorient x Auxerre?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Lorient x Auxerre, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Lorient x Auxerre for the France Ligue 1 – 1 of March

The latest news about Lorient x Auxerre

Lorient: The main team of Lorient recently secured an exciting 3-3 draw against OGC Nice, with Bamba Dieng playing a key role in keeping the team in the game. Meanwhile, Optas AI-based projections after the 23rd round place the club around ninth position in Ligue 1s final table; concurrently, Lorient B, the reserve team, drew 1-1 against US Granville in National 2 and is scheduled to face SC Locminé on February 28, 2026.

Auxerre: Auxerre is currently struggling in Ligue 1, holding the 16th spot at the end of February 2026, and will try to escape relegation when they host Stade Rennais on February 22, 2026, at Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps; the clubs recent form includes a crucial 2-1 victory over Metz, also threatened with relegation, breaking a losing streak and earning three vital points, while the womens team is scheduled to play against Evian Thonon Grand Genève FC on March 15, 2026, in Seconde Ligue Women.

Table analysis for the match between Lorient and Auxerre

Lorient: Lorient is in 9th place with 32 points, a comfortable spot on the table and far from the relegation zone. Since they are not fighting for European competition spots at this point in the season, the match against Auxerre has moderate importance to maintain their position and try to climb a bit higher on the table. A win could help accumulate points to “dream” of a spot in international tournaments, but it is not a decisive game for the club.

Auxerre: Auxerre is in 16th place with 17 points, in the “Relegation Playoffs” zone, very close to the relegation group. For the visiting team, this match is crucial to escape the danger zone. Every point gained is precious to try to distance themselves from direct relegation and secure at least a chance in the survival playoffs. Therefore, the game is of high importance for Auxerre.

Summary: The match is very important for Auxerre, which fights to escape relegation, while for Lorient, the game serves to solidify a safe position and perhaps try for more, but it is not decisive. Therefore, the duel has high relevance especially for the visitor. ⚽🔥

Odds and handicap movements for Lorient x Auxerre

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Lorient x Auxerre.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Lorient x Auxerre

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Lorient x Auxerre right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1488452 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Should you bet on Lorient?

🔵 Lorient: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.92% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.03. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 380 times – profiting $391.40;
• And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$228.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $616.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$104.00.

Should you bet on Auxerre?

🔴 Auxerre: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 340 times – having a profit of $918.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$258.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Lorient x Auxerre

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Lorient
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Lorient x Auxerre

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Lorient and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Lorient.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Lorient x Auxerre

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Lorient x Auxerre