Metz x Brest Betting tips for March 1 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Metz x Brest, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 16:15

Metz 3.10

X 3.30

Brest 2.20

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Metz x Brest:

🔮 Brest wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Brest, you can win up to $1100.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Metz x Brest:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Metz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Brest in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Brest scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Metz x Brest, with Metz as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Brest conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Metz conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Brest.
👉 Even as a visitor, Brest won the last 3 head-to-head matches Metz´s territory

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Metz vs Brest?

Lets analyze the match between Metz and Brest that will take place at Stade Saint Symphorien, home of Metz. The home team is in a tough situation in Ligue 1, sitting at the bottom with only 13 points in 23 games and a negative streak of eleven games without a win. Additionally, Metz has a low average of goals scored (1 goal per game at home) and concedes many goals (3 per game), showing defensive fragility. On the other hand, Brest is doing better this season, occupying 11th place with 30 points and riding a wave of five wins in the last six home games.

📈 In terms of standings, Brest is in a comfortable position to climb higher in the league while Metz is desperately fighting to escape relegation. This gives Brest extra motivation to maintain their good form against a pressured opponent.

📰 News reinforces this analysis: Metz faces important absences like Benjamin Stambouli and Boubacar Traoré and comes from a heavy defeat against PSG; meanwhile, Brest recently defeated a major opponent (Olympique Marseille) with Ajorque scoring two decisive goals.

Analyzing the median odds we have:

• Normalized implied probabilities: Metz win ~29%, Draw ~28%, Brest win ~43%

Considering offensive/defensive stats, recent form, and news:

• The fair estimated probability for Metz to win is lower (~20%) due to their poor form;
• Draw is close to 30%;
• Brest has a higher chance (~50%) due to current technical/moral superiority.

Thus, the approximate fair odds would be:

• Metz: 5.0
• Draw: 3.3
• Brest: 2.0

Comparing with the final odds, the odds for an away win (Brest) are slightly underestimated by the market (2.15 vs fair ~2), but it remains the most probable bet according to our model, which also indicates a positive expected value (+8.8%). Bets on a draw or Metz win do not show a positive expected value given their recent poor performance.

Final suggestion:
Betting on Stade Brestoiss victory seems to be the best option here! The visiting team is stronger both statistically and psychologically compared to the fragile state of FC Metz.
The calculated expected value for this bet is about +8.8%, indicating a good opportunity 💰⚽️.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Metz x Brest?

Maybe you already have an account on Bet365, but that is not a problem! We, from the Clube da Aposta, have been on this business since 2010 and know which bookies are trustworthy or not. Check out our list of the best betting sites in Kenya from 2026, you just have to click and bet:

Analysis from Metz x Brest for the France Ligue 1 – 1 of March

The latest news about Metz x Brest

Metz: Metz is currently stuck at the bottom of Ligue 1, having recorded only three wins, four draws, and sixteen losses, totaling 13 points after 23 matches, 10 points behind the safety zone with only eleven games remaining; the club, managed by Benoît Tavenot, suffered a 3-0 home defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on February 21, 2026 — their 17th consecutive loss to PSG — and likely faces absences of Benjamin Stambouli and Boubacar Traoré, entering the next round against Stade Brestois on March 1, 2026, in an attempt to break a streak of eleven games without a win.

Stade Brestois: Stade Brestois secured a vital 2-0 victory over Olympique Marseille on February 20, 2026, with Ludovic Ajorque scoring both goals and goalkeeper Grégoire Couderc making a decisive penalty save, elevating Brest to 11th position in Ligue 1 with 30 points after 23 matches, temporarily four points away from the top five qualification zone; the club, coached by Eric Roy, has won five of its last six home games and continues gaining momentum as the season progresses.

Table analysis for the game between Metz and Brest

Metz: Metz is in 18th place, within the relegation zone with only 13 points and a very negative goal difference (-30). Given this situation, the match against Brest is crucial to try to escape relegation and seek points that could prevent direct drop to Serie B. Every point earned is valuable at this critical moment of the competition.

Brest: Brest is in 11th place with 30 points, comfortably positioned on the table, far from both the European competition qualification zone and relegation. The match is less important for Brest in terms of classification, as they are not at risk nor have great chances to advance to international spots at this stage.

Summary: The game is extremely important for Metz, which fights to escape the relegation zone, while it is more relaxed for Brest, which is already safe in the middle of the table. Therefore, the match is very important for one team and more relaxed for the other.

How the handicap and odds moved for Metz x Brest

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Metz x Brest.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Metz x Brest

When the best bet on Metz x Brest is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488452 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Should you bet on Metz?

🔵 Metz: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.15% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $504.00
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$256.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $575.00;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$175.00.

Should you bet on Brest?

🔴 Brest: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 50.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 510 times – profiting $612.00;
• And would lose other 490 times – losing -$490.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$122.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Metz x Brest

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Metz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Metz x Brest

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Metz and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Metz.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Metz.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Metz x Brest

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Metz x Brest