Metz x Lille Betting tips for February 6 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Metz x Lille, Friday, 6/2/2026

📅 6/2/2026 19:45

Metz 4.40

X 3.90

Lille 1.68

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Metz x Lille:

🔮 Lille wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Metz x Lille:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Metz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-200.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lille in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-165.0.
👉 In the last 3 Metz matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Metz conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Lille conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Metz conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Lille.
👉 It is not a good time for Metz as home team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last home matches.
👉 It is not a good time for Lille as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Metz vs Lille:

⚽ The match between Metz and Lille at Stade Saint-Symphorien promises to be an interesting duel, with the stadium truly being Metzs home, which could give a slight boost to the home team. Analyzing recent statistics, Metz has been quite vulnerable defensively, with an average of 3 goals conceded per game at home and a poor run of results (only 1 win in the last 5 home games). Meanwhile, Lille, despite being fifth in Ligue 1 and having a similar offensive average (1 goal per away game), is going through a tough phase with four consecutive losses.

📈 In the league table, the difference is clear: Metz is fighting to escape the relegation zone (18th place), while Lille aims to establish itself among the top teams. This disparity in the need for points can greatly influence team motivation — Metz desperately needs points to avoid relegation, while Lille wants to regain its rhythm to stay competitive.

📰 The news reinforces this analysis: Metz has shown extreme defensive fragility and matches with many goals conceded; additionally, they recently faced strong opponents like Lyon who scored a hat-trick against them. On the other hand, Lille is trying to recover after a negative streak but has experienced players like Olivier Giroud who can make a difference.

Analyzing the provided median odds (4.4 for Metz win; 3.9 for draw; 1.69 for Lille win) and normalizing their implied probabilities, we get approximately: Metz win ~21%, draw ~25%, Lille win ~54%. Considering recent offensive/defensive stats and team motivation based on the table, these probabilities seem coherent.

However, our adjusted calculation suggests that the fair probability for the visitors (Lille) victory is even higher due to superior technical quality despite the recent poor phase — we estimate something close to 60% for Lille victory, about 22% for a draw, and only 18% for Metz victory. This indicates that current odds mainly offer value on the away team.

Evaluating the expected values of bets according to our model compared to the final odds:

• Lille wins: Significant positive EV (~13%), confirming value in this bet;
• Draw or Metz win: Negative or very low EV;

Therefore, I fully agree with the Bets Kenya model indicating value in betting on Lilles away victory 🟢💰.

Final tip: Betting on Lilles win seems to be the best choice here! Despite their recent mixed results away (2 wins in 5 games), their superior technical quality combined with the glaring defensive fragility of the hosts justifies this recommendation.
Good luck! 🍀⚽

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Analysis from Metz x Lille for the France Ligue 1 – 6 of February

The latest news about Metz x Lille

Metz: Metz is currently facing difficulties in Ligue 1, sitting 18th in the table and having the leagues worst defensive record, with an average of 2.37 goals conceded per game. Sixty percent of their away matches have ended with four or more goals. They drew 1-1 away against Lorient on January 4, 2026, and are scheduled to host Lyon on January 25, 2026, before traveling to face Lille at Stade Saint-Symphorien on February 6, 2026, a match against a team in fifth place. Recent news highlights that Brazilian loan Endrick, who joined Lyon from Real Madrid, scored a hat-trick against Metz in the previous match, emphasizing the clubs defensive struggles and the high-scoring nature of their games.

Lille: Lille is currently fifth in Ligue 1 and is struggling to reverse a streak of four consecutive losses, having been eliminated from the league after a 0-2 defeat at Stade Rennais on January 3, 2026. The team will face Angers on February 22, Nantes on February 27, and Olympique de Marseille on March 22, all matches at Decathlon Arena. In the UEFA Europa League, they entered the playoff phase of the qualifiers and won their first match against Red Star Belgrade 1-0 at home on February 19, 2026. The top scorers of the season include veteran forward Olivier Giroud and forward Håkon Haraldsson, who have also contributed significantly with assists, as Lille seeks to gain momentum in both domestic and European competitions.

Table analysis for the game between Metz and Lille

Metz: Metz is in 18th place, within the relegation zone, with only 12 points and a negative goal difference (-25). With this position, the team faces a serious risk of relegation to the lower division, and the match against Lille is crucial to earn points that could help them stay away from the drop zone. Therefore, the game is extremely important for Metz, which urgently needs to gather points to try to escape relegation. ⚠️

Lille: Lille is in 5th place with 32 points, fighting for a spot in European competitions (UEFA Europa League). The gap to 6th place is small, and every point gained can make a difference to secure a better position at the end of the season. Thus, the match against Metz is very important to maintain or improve their standing and ensure international participation. ⚽️

Summary: This match is very important for both teams: Metz fights to get out of the relegation zone, while Lille seeks to consolidate its spot in Europe. A confrontation full of emotions and significance for both sides! 🔥

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Metz x Lille

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Metz x Lille.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Metz x Lille

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Metz and Lille.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1475020 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Metz worth it?

🔵 Metz: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 20.44% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.40. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 200 times – this would give you a profit of $680.00
• And would have lost other 800 times – with a loss of -$800.00 because of them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$120.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 12.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 130 times – profiting $377.00;
• And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$493.00.

Should you bet on Lille?

🔴 Lille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 66.62% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.68. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 670 times – profiting $455.60;
• And would lose other 330 times – having a loss of -$330.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$125.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Metz x Lille

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Metz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Metz x Lille

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Metz, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Metz.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Metz x Lille

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Metz x Lille