Monaco x Lyon Betting tips for January 3 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Monaco x Lyon, Saturday, 3/1/2026

📅 3/1/2026 16:00

Monaco 2.00

X 3.70

Lyon 3.30

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Monaco x Lyon:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Monaco x Lyon

The main points for the tip for Monaco x Lyon:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Monaco in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $381.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lyon in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-330.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Monaco scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Lyon is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 4 away matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Monaco vs Lyon:

Lets analyze the match between Monaco and Lyon that will take place at Stade Louis II, home of Monaco, with a capacity of 18,523 spectators. Monaco has a decent home performance in the last 5 matches, with 3 wins and an average of 0.8 goals scored per game at home recently (4 goals in 5 games). Lyon, on the other hand, shows a stronger offensive average away from home in the same league, with about 1.2 goals per game (6 goals in 5 games), plus a much higher ball possession (63% vs 49% for Monaco), indicating greater control of the matches.

The median odds indicate favoritism for Monaco (2.00) followed by a draw (3.7) and Lyons win (3.25). Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately: Monaco win ~48%, draw ~26%, Lyon win ~31%. Considering recent statistics — such as Lyons possession advantage and more effective attack — I would slightly adjust the probabilities to give a bit more weight to the visitor: something like Monaco win ~45%, draw ~27%, Lyon win ~28%.

Calculating the fair odds based on these adjusted probabilities would be around:

• Monaco: 2.22
• Draw: 3.70
• Lyon: 3.57

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers — 1.909 for Monaco, 3.8 for the draw, and 3.75 for Lyon — we see potential value in the draw market and perhaps in the visitors win if we consider the recent offensive strength of the visitors.

News analysis reinforces this balanced view: AS Monaco comes energized after a good victory in the Coupe de France and has the important return of Paul Pogba, who can positively influence their midfield; meanwhile, Olympique Lyonnais has brought interesting reinforcements like Endrick, a young Brazilian prospect who is expected to debut soon after this league match against Monaco itself – indicating a motivated team seeking to maintain its recent good streak in Ligue 1 under Paulo Fonseca.

📰 News:
Pogbas triumphant return to Monaco adds experience to the midfield; meanwhile, recent offensive reinforcements at Lyon show a team aggressive in seeking to climb higher in the table.

📈 Team positions:
Lyon is currently in a better position in the table (fifth place), pressured by the need for points to catch the leaders; Monaco, on the other hand, seeks to establish itself better within the local competition after mixed results recently – this suggests high motivation from the visitors but also a strong desire from the hosts to defend their territory.

Based on this, my suggested bet is on a draw or even a favorable surprise for Olympique Lyonnais. The expected value calculated shows a positive EV mainly in the draw market (+1%) according to our internal model – although modest – but considering all the external factors mentioned, I see this outcome as plausible.
Betting directly on the winner doesnt seem so attractive due to the low or negative margins found in the expected values of individual wins according to our model (-9% for home; -2% for away).

Betting on a balanced result here is smart! ⚽️💡 #Ligue1 #MonacoVsLyon #ValueBet

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Monaco x Lyon?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Monaco x Lyon, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Monaco x Lyon for the France Ligue 1 – 3 of January

The latest news about Monaco x Lyon

AS Monaco: AS Monaco, coached by Sébastien Pocognoli and playing home matches at Stade Louis II, which has a capacity of 18,523 spectators in Fontvieille, will face Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1 on January 3, 2026, following a recent 2-1 victory in the Coupe de France over Auxerre; the club has also gained attention this winter with the return of former French midfielder Paul Pogba, who came back after an 18-month suspension, debuted for Monaco on November 22, 2025, participated in three league matches, and won the 2025 Globe Soccer “Best Return” award, now expecting a regular role as the season progresses.

Olympique Lyonnais: Olympique Lyonnais strengthened their attack this winter by securing the loan of Brazilian teenager Endrick, from Real Madrid; the 19-year-old will start training with the first team on Monday, wears jersey number 9, and is expected to debut for Lyon in the Coupe de France, in the round of 16 against Lille on January 11, after not participating in the league match against Monaco on January 3 due to registration timing. Under coach Paulo Fonseca, the club is fifth in Ligue 1, ten points behind leaders Lens, and has been on a strong run in recent weeks, winning four of the last five games, with wingers Pavel Sulc and young Afonso Moreira, aged 20, combining eight goals and eight assists, while upcoming fixtures include league matches in Monaco (January 3), Brest (January 18), and a Europa League clash against Young Boys (January 22).

France Ligue 1 table analysis for Monaco x Lyon

Monaco: Monaco is in 9th place with 23 points, somewhat distant from the European competition qualification zone, which is in 5th place with 27 points (occupied by Lyon). With the points difference and the current round, the match against Lyon is quite important for Monaco to try to close this gap and still dream of a European spot. A victory could be crucial to get closer to the qualification group for the competitions, increasing chances in the upcoming rounds.

Lyon: Lyon is in 5th position with 27 points, in the UEFA Europa League qualification zone, but is pressured to maintain or improve their position, as they are only 1 point ahead of Rennes (6th) and 4 points ahead of Monaco (9th). This match against Monaco is essential for Lyon to secure their presence in European competitions, preventing the opponent from catching up, especially playing away from home.

Summary: This is an important game for both teams, as Monaco wants to get closer to the European zone and Lyon aims to keep their international spot, making this match decisive for both teams ambitions in Ligue 1.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Monaco x Lyon

When the best bet on Monaco x Lyon is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1458121 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Monaco?

🔵 Monaco: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 41.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 420 times – profiting $420.00;
• And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$160.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.66% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $756.00;
• And would lose other 720 times – losing -$720.00 with them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$36.00. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Should you bet on Lyon?

🔴 Lyon: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $713.00;
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$23.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Handicaps analysis for the match Monaco x Lyon

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Monaco
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Monaco x Lyon

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Monaco, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Monaco.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Lyon.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Monaco x Lyon

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.