Monaco x Nantes Betting tips for February 13 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Monaco x Nantes, Friday, 13/2/2026

📅 13/2/2026 20:05

Monaco 1.43

X 4.75

Nantes 6.20

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Monaco x Nantes:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $2375.00!

🔮 Nantes wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Nantes, you can win up to $3100.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Monaco x Nantes:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Monaco in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-124.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nantes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $885.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Nantes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Nantes, Monaco scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Monaco x Nantes, with Monaco as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Monaco has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Nantes playing at home.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Monaco vs Nantes:

⚽ The match between Monaco and Nantes at Stade Louis II promises to be a tense game, with Monaco playing at their traditional stadium where they have a very strong historical and recent advantage. Monaco comes from a tough phase in Ligue 1, with only 2 wins in the last 5 home games and evident offensive difficulties (average of 1 goal per game at home), but still maintains a relatively solid defense. Nantes is in a delicate position on the table, fighting to get out of the relegation zone and showing serious defensive weaknesses away from home (average of 2 goals conceded per match). Ball possession clearly favors Monaco (50% vs 42%), which also creates more offensive chances (13 shots per game vs 8 for Nantes).

📈 In the Ligue 1 table, Monaco is slightly above the relegation playoff zone while Nantes is almost within it. This gives Monaco extra motivation to secure three points at home and move away from the dangers of the lower part of the table. On the other hand, Nantes desperately needs to earn points to avoid direct relegation or complicated playoffs.

📰 News indicates that Monaco will have important absences like Paul Pogba and other injured players, but recent reinforcements may help the team stay competitive. The team has also shown good defensive solidity even without scoring many goals lately. Nantes, however, suffers from consecutive defeats and recent disciplinary issues that dampen team morale.

Analyzing the median odds adjusted for house margins: fair probabilities are approximately Monaco win: ~66%, draw: ~20%, Nantes win: ~14%. This reflects the offensive/defensive stats of the teams combined with the clear home advantage at Stade Louis II.

Compared to the final odds offered by bookmakers (Monaco @1.48; Draw @4.33; Nantes @6.5), there is positive value mainly in betting on the visitor according to our EV calculation (+30%), but this high odds seem to underestimate the home defensive strength and recent favorable history for Monaco.

Suggestion: Despite the high odds for Nantes to win seeming tempting based on the expected value calculated by Bets Kenya (+30%), my analysis indicates that betting on Monaco is safer considering their strong home advantage, urgent need for points, and overall tactical/statistical superiority — even with important absences.
Betting on a draw can be risky due to both teams pressure for a positive result.
Therefore, my recommendation is to bet on Monacos victory, as they have historically better control of home matches (whether injured or not) and a better attack-defense balance compared to the fragile visiting defense.

Always remember to manage your bankroll! Good luck with your bets! 🍀

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Analysis from Monaco x Nantes for the France Ligue 1 – 13 of February

Latest news on the match between Monaco and Nantes

AS Monaco: AS Monaco is entering the knockout phase of the Champions League round of 16 against their domestic rival Paris Saint-Germain, having removed Paul Pogba from their UCL squad due to ongoing issues with his calf and thigh injuries that have kept him out since early December, and also excluding Mohammed Salisu and Takumi Minamino over similar fitness concerns; the club strengthened the squad with January signings Simon Adingra and Wout Faes, both expected to start in the home-and-away matches, and has been facing difficulties in Ligue 1, sitting just above the relegation playoff zone after a 0-0 draw with Nice, leaving them without wins in five away games but with a slightly better goal difference, with recent performances marked by lack of composure in attack despite moments like Folarin Baloguns near goal and a solid defensive display highlighted by Thilo Kehrers performance, named man of the match.

Nantes: Nantes is in 16th position in Ligue 1, just one point above the bottom two spots and currently in the relegation playoff zone, after a 1-0 defeat to Olympique Lyonnais on February 7, 2026, when the player loaned from Real Madrid to Lyon, Endrick, was sent off with a red card considered “very harsh,” a decision criticized by Lyons coach Paulo Fonseca, while Nantes coach Ahmed Kantari dismissed claims that his team was targeting the young player; their previous league match was a 2-1 loss to Lorient, and they play their home matches at Stade de la Beaujoire, capacity 37,473, and their U-19 team will face Stade Brestois U19 on February 14, 2026, in the Championnat National U19, with recent market rumors involving a failed Chelsea attempt for Nantes prospect Tylel Tati and Liverpools €60 million signing of defender Jeremy Jacquet.

Table analysis for the game between Monaco and Nantes

Monaco: Monaco is in 10th place with 28 points, in a close race with Strasbourg and Toulouse (both with 30 points). Although no longer in the direct fight for a European spot, they can still improve their position on the table to secure a more comfortable placement and avoid unnecessary wear until the end of Ligue 1. Therefore, the match against Nantes is important for Monaco to earn points, solidify their stay in Ligue 1, and climb a few positions in the standings.

Nantes: Nantes is in 17th place with only 14 points, within the relegation zone. The team faces a real risk of dropping to the second division, just one point behind Auxerre, which is in the relegation playoff zone (16th with 14 points), and far from teams that have already escaped relegation. Therefore, the match against Monaco is crucial for Nantes to try to earn important points and move away from relegation danger.

Summary: The game is very important for Nantes, which fights directly against relegation, and also relevant for Monaco, which seeks to improve its position on the table and ensure a smoother season. In short, an important match for both teams, but with greater urgency for Nantes. ⚽🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for Monaco x Nantes

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Monaco x Nantes.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Monaco x Nantes

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Monaco x Nantes right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1479336 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it worth betting on Monaco?

🔵 Monaco: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 56.9%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.43. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 570 times – profiting $245.10;
• And would lose other 430 times – having a loss of -$430.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$184.90.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 23.66%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – profiting $900.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – having a loss of -$760.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$140.00.

Is it worth betting on Nantes?

🔴 Nantes: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.45% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $988.00;
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$178.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Monaco x Nantes

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Monaco
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Monaco x Nantes

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Monaco, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Monaco.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Nantes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Monaco x Nantes

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Monaco x Nantes