Nantes x Le Havre Betting tips for February 22 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Nantes x Le Havre, Sunday, 22/2/2026

📅 22/2/2026 16:15

Nantes 2.28

X 3.20

Le Havre 2.98

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Nantes x Le Havre:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Nantes x Le Havre

Important information for your tip for Nantes x Le Havre:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Nantes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Le Havre in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 Le Havre matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Nantes conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Le Havre conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Nantes as home team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last home matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Nantes vs Le Havre?

Lets analyze the match between FC Nantes and Le Havre AC, which will take place at Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes official stadium, ensuring home advantage for them. 🏟️

Statistical analysis:
Nantes is going through a tough phase: in the last 5 home games, they scored 7 goals but conceded 15, with no wins and five losses. The average goals scored per game is low (1 goal), while they concede twice as much (2 goals). The team has more ball possession (48%) than the opponent but concedes more shots and corners. Le Havre shows better away performance: scored only 1 goal in the last 5 away games but conceded fewer (6), with two draws and three losses; overall in the league, they have two recent wins and show defensive resilience.

Calculating fair odds:
Median odds indicate a slight advantage for Nantes (2.28) against Le Havre (2.98) with a draw at 3.20.
Normalized implied probabilities:
– Nantes win: ~43%
– Draw: ~31%
– Le Havre win: ~26%

Adjusting for Nantes weak home defensive stats and Le Havres relative defensive consistency even away, I would estimate the fair probabilities as:
– Nantes win: about 40%
– Draw: about 30%
– Le Havre win: about 30%

Thus, the approximate fair odds would be:
Nantes victory – @2.50
Draw – @3.33
Le Havre victory – @3.33

Final odds analysis:
Final odds are slightly adjusted to favor the visitors (@2.9) compared to the fair model (@3.33), while the home win odds increased to @2.4 from the fair @2.5.
The draw is priced at @3.3, close to fair value.

Expected value calculation:
Based on the final odds versus my fair odds:
EV Nantes win = ((2.4 / 2.5) -1)*100 = -4%, no positive expected value.
EV draw = ((3.3 / 3.33)-1)*100 = -0.9%, nearly neutral.
EV Le Havre win = ((2.9 / 3.33)-1)*100= -13%, also negative.

None of the bets have a positive expected value above +5%. Therefore, no clear betting tip based solely on purely mathematical probabilities.

📰 Recent news influencing analysis:
Nantes is fighting against relegation after a poor streak including a recent heavy defeat; Le Havre is comfortably mid-table but far from the danger zone and has shown resilience by winning important matches even with absences – suggesting they can surprise playing away.

📈 Table analysis:
Nantes is desperately trying to escape the lower zone while Le Havre seeks to establish itself in the middle of the table without extreme pressure – this could motivate the visiting team to seek points in this tough game.

Final betting suggestion: Betting on the draw seems the most balanced option considering current data – although it doesnt have a high expected value (>+5%), its the least risky given the offensive/defensive issues of the teams. 

The analysis by Bets Kenya indicates higher value on the draw (+4%), I fully agree as wins and losses seem unlikely given the current phase of the teams! ⚽🤝

Overall, my recommendation is caution in this match; avoid risky bets until we see clear signs or significant changes in team conditions!

Looking for another bookie to bet on Nantes x Le Havre?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Nantes x Le Havre, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Nantes x Le Havre for the France Ligue 1 – 22 of February

The latest news about Nantes x Le Havre

FC Nantes: Recent developments in Ligue 1 involving FC Nantes include a controversial incident where Endrick, loaned from Lyon, received a straight red card for a tackle on Nantes defender Dehmaine Tabibou; after review, the red card was downgraded to a second yellow, meaning Endrick will be available for Lyons next match. Nantes continues to fight to stay in the league, having been defeated 3-1 by Monaco on Friday and now facing a home fixture against Paris Saint-Germain, while at the start of the season Marseille suffered a defeat to Nantes on January 4th, a loss that drew criticism of Roberto De Zerbis management.

Le Havre AC: Le Havre AC is mid-table in Ligue 1, currently in 13th place, and has been active in February 2026, with a 1-1 draw against RC Strasbourg on February 8th before hosting Toulouse on February 15th at Stade Océane. Earlier in the season, they secured a 1-0 victory over Angers on January 4th; the club also drew attention as defender Yan Diomande, a key part of the defense, has been linked to a transfer to Liverpool, but he publicly stated he will remain focused on Le Havres campaign despite the interest. Recently, the team celebrated a 2-1 victory over Toulouse, even playing with ten men, highlighting their resilience in the fight to climb the league table.

France Ligue 1 table analysis for Nantes x Le Havre

Nantes: The situation is critical for Nantes, which is in 17th place with 14 points, within the relegation zone. The match against Le Havre is extremely important to try to escape direct relegation or, at the very least, to find a better position for the relegation playoffs. Every point gained is essential to attempt a recovery in this final stretch of Ligue 1. A key game to build confidence and try to avoid dropping to the second division. ⚠️

Le Havre: Le Havre, in 13th place with 26 points, is in a more comfortable situation, but with little chance of reaching European competition spots. The duel against Nantes aims to consolidate Ligue 1 permanence, increasing the distance from relegation dangers and seeking stability in the championship. It is an important match to maintain safety in the middle of the table. ⚽

Summary: The game is very important for both, but for different reasons: Nantes fights to move away from the relegation zone, while Le Havre seeks to secure its stay with more tranquility. Therefore, it is a confrontation of high relevance at the lower part of the table for both teams.

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Nantes x Le Havre

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Nantes x Le Havre.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Nantes x Le Havre

When the best bet on Nantes x Le Havre is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1483644 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Is it a good idea to bet on Nantes?

🔵 Nantes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 37.66%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.28. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 380 times – this would give you a profit of $486.40
• And would lose other 620 times – losing -$620.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$133.60.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.53% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $704.00;
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$24.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on Le Havre?

🔴 Le Havre: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.8% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.98. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 310 times – this would give you a profit of $613.80
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$76.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nantes x Le Havre

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Nantes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nantes x Le Havre

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Nantes and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Nantes.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Le Havre.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nantes x Le Havre

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Nantes x Le Havre