Nantes x Lyon Betting tips for February 7 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Nantes x Lyon, Saturday, 7/2/2026

📅 7/2/2026 20:05

Nantes 4.84

X 3.80

Lyon 1.65

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Nantes x Lyon:

🔮 Nantes wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Nantes x Lyon:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Nantes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Lyon in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $457.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Nantes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Lyon scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Lyon, Nantes scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Nantes conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Lyon is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 4 wins in a row in its last road matches.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Nantes vs Lyon:

Lets analyze the match between Nantes and Lyon at Stade de la Beaujoire, which is Nantes official stadium, thus ensuring the home advantage for them. 🏟️

Statistics and Probabilities:
Nantes has a very weak recent home performance: 0 wins in the last 5 home games, with an average of just 1 goal scored per game at home and conceding 2 goals per game. Lyon, on the other hand, performs much better away, with 4 wins in the last 5 away games and a higher average of goals scored (2) while conceding fewer (1). Additionally, Lyon has more ball possession (54% vs. 49%) and more accurate shots (7 vs. 4), showing greater offensive control.

The median odds indicate a clear preference by betting houses for Lyons victory: home_odds_median is high around 4.91 while away_odds_median is low around 1.65.

From the median odds, we calculate the implied normalized probabilities:
– Nantes Win: ~17%
– Draw: ~26%
– Lyon Win: ~57%

Considering recent Ligue 1 statistics and Nantes poor form against Lyons good phase, my fair estimate for the probabilities would be close to:
– home_pred_gpt = 18%
– draw_pred_gpt = 25%
– away_pred_gpt = 57%

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately:
Nantes Win: ~5.56
Draw: ~4.00
Lyon Win: ~1.75

Final Odds Analysis:
The final odds are close to these fair estimates (home_end_odds=4.75, draw_end_odds=3.8, away_end_odds=1.7) indicating no significant positive expected value in bets according to our calculation.

Expected Value Calculation:
Based on the final odds versus my fair odds:
EV Nantes Win ≈ -15%, EV Draw ≈ -5%, EV Lyon Win ≈ -3%. That is, no bet shows a positive expected value above the recommended limit (+5%). Therefore, I do not recommend betting here for value.

📰 About recent news:
Nantes is struggling at the lower part of the table with evident defensive issues (-17 negative balance) and negotiations involving their young defender Tylel Tati may impact their defensive stability.
Lyon is firmly fighting for the Champions League, occupying fourth place with good recent performance, including in the French Cup where they advanced to the quarter-finals after a decisive goal from loaned Endrick.
These factors further reinforce Lyons current technical superiority over Nantes.

📈 In Ligue 1 standings, theres a clear scenario where the visiting team seeks to consolidate their European spot, while the home team fights to escape the danger zone – this further increases Lyons offensive motivation against the local defensive nervousness.

Final suggestion:
Betting on Lyons clear favoritism seems consistent but without significant positive expected value since bookmakers have already priced this advantage well.
Betting on a draw or a surprising Nantes victory is not attractive given their recent poor statistics even playing at home.

I agree with the Bets Club model indicating a clear absence of value in the available bets for this match ⚠️ I see no safe bet here besides perhaps the simple bet on the visiting team’s victory due to low risk but without high profit expectations!

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Analysis from Nantes x Lyon for the France Ligue 1 – 7 of February

Latest news on Nantes x Lyon

Nantes: Nantes is currently fighting in Ligue 1, holding 16th place after 20 matches, with a record of three wins, five draws, and twelve losses, a goal difference of –17, and 14 points. The club will host Olympique Lyonnais on February 7, 2026, at Stade de la Beaujoire. Nantes has attracted significant transfer interest for their young central defender Tylel Tati, an 18-year-old academy product who has played 19 matches this season; Chelsea reportedly made a verbal offer of €30 million, including a possible loan to Strasbourg, while Nantes has indicated they are not desperate to sell and are firm in negotiations. Chelsea’s pursuit of Tati follows their recent loss in the race for Rennes defender Jérémy Jacquet to Liverpool, and the French club’s reluctance to open a “big door” suggests any deal will depend on the player’s development path and financial terms.

Lyon: Lyon is currently fourth in Ligue 1, with 12 wins, three draws, and five losses in 20 matches, totaling 39 points and a positive goal difference of +13 while competing for a Champions League spot. Under coach Paulo Fonseca, the team will travel to Nantes for their next league match; in the cup, Real Madrid loaned Endrick—who is on loan until the end of the season—who scored five goals in five games, opening the scoring at 80 minutes in a 2-0 victory over Laval, a second division team, on February 4, 2026, securing Lyon’s qualification to the Coupe de France quarter-finals, with the result sealed by an own goal from Maxime Hautbois in stoppage time.

Table analysis for the game between Nantes and Lyon

Nantes: Nantes is currently in 16th place, close to the relegation zone, with 14 points. This game is crucial for the team as it could be decisive to escape or at least try to avoid the relegation playoff. Every point will make a big difference to escape the danger zone and secure Ligue 1 survival.

Lyon: Lyon is in 4th place with 39 points, fighting for a spot in the Champions League qualifying phase. This round is important to maintain or even improve their position on the table, ensuring a better placement for the next European season. A win keeps the team firmly in this top fight.

Summary: This is a very important game for both teams, as Nantes fights against relegation and Lyon seeks to secure a spot in the Champions League.⚽️🔥

Odds and handicap movements for Nantes x Lyon

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Nantes x Lyon (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for Nantes x Lyon

When the best bet on Nantes x Lyon is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1475397 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Should you bet on Nantes?

🔵 Nantes: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.21% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.84. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $844.80;
• And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$64.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $700.00;
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$50.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Lyon?

🔴 Lyon: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 52.99% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 530 times – this would give you a profit of $344.50
• And would lose other 470 times – having a loss of -$470.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$125.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Nantes x Lyon

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Nantes
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nantes x Lyon

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Nantes, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Nantes.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Nantes.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nantes x Lyon

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Nantes x Lyon