Paris FC x Nice Betting tips for March 1 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Paris FC x Nice, Sunday, 1/3/2026

📅 1/3/2026 14:00

Paris FC 2.37

X 3.27

Nice 2.90

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Paris FC x Nice:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Paris FC x Nice

The main points for the tip for Paris FC x Nice:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Paris FC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nice in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-260.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Nice conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Paris FC vs Nice?

Lets analyze the match between Paris FC and Nice that will be held at Stade Jean Bouin, a stadium that is not the usual home for Paris FC, as it is better known as the home of Stade Français (rugby). This could impact the home advantage for Paris FC.

Statistically, Paris FC has a weak home performance in the last 5 matches: they scored only 3 goals and conceded 11, with no wins and two losses. Additionally, their average of accurate shots at home is low (3 per game) compared to an average of 5 accurate shots conceded. The team also has good ball possession (58%), but this does not translate into positive results. Meanwhile, Nice performs better away: they scored 11 goals in the last 5 away games and conceded 13; they have higher averages of shots (12 total and 3 on target), although they also face significant offensive pressure from opponents.

The median odds indicate a slight advantage for Paris FC to win (2.37) over Nice (2.9), with a draw at 3.27.

Calculating the implied probabilities from the median odds gives us:

• Paris FC win: ~42%
• Draw: ~31%
• Nice win: ~34%

Adjusting to sum to 100%, the normalized probabilities are approximately:

• Paris FC victory: ~38%
• Draw: ~28%
• Nice victory: ~34%

Looking at recent stats and news 📰, Paris FC is fighting to escape relegation with only 23 points after 23 games and a significant negative goal difference (-13). Despite goalkeeper Kevin Trapps recent standout performance against Toulouse, they suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat to Lens, revealing serious defensive weaknesses. Conversely, Nice is mid-table (14th place), coming from an exciting 3-3 draw with Lorient, showing offensive capability but also defensive vulnerability.

Psychologically 📈, this table difference indicates an urgent need for points for Paris FC, which plays “at home” but in a neutral stadium for them – this could reduce their traditional home advantage – while Nice can play more relaxed, aiming to stay safely away from the danger zone.

Based on this, my fair estimate of probabilities would be close to:

• Paris FC win: about 35%
• Draw: about 30%
• Nice win: about 35%

These values reflect a balance between the defensive weaknesses of both teams and their different needs in the table, combined with the negative impact of the real absence of the traditional home advantage due to the unusual venue.

Analyzing the fair odds calculated from these probabilities (~2.86 for draw; ~2.85 for away; ~2.86 for home) compared to the final odds offered by bookmakers (~2.4 home; ~3.4 draw; ~2.9 away), there is positive value mainly in the “draw” market, as its real odds are higher than my estimated fair odds, indicating a potential positive expected value above +5%.

However, considering the expected values from the Bets Kenya model (+1% home; -23% draw; +2% away), I see a significant divergence in the draw market, where I strongly disagree with it because I believe there is value there due to mutual defensive instability of the teams combined with the neutral scenario at Stade Jean Bouin.

Therefore, my suggestion is to bet on “draw”, because despite recent offensive difficulties, both teams have shown defensive fragility, which could result in a balanced game without a clear winner — especially given the real absence of the traditional home advantage — generating attractive odds with a good expected value estimated above +5%. ⚽🤝

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Analysis from Paris FC x Nice for the France Ligue 1 – 1 of March

Latest news on the match between Paris FC and Nice

Paris FC: Paris FC is struggling to stay in Ligue 1, accumulating 23 points after 23 matches (5‑8‑10, goal difference -13) and currently just above the relegation zone; they recently earned an important away point against Toulouse, a performance highlighted by experienced goalkeeper Kevin Trapp, who was selected for the Team of the Week, but also suffered a 5-0 defeat against Lens, showing the clubs inconsistency as they seek improvements under coach Thierry Laurey.

OGC Nice: OGC Nices last Ligue 1 match was a dramatic 3-3 draw against Lorient on February 22, 2026, at Allianz Riviera, where Nice opened 2-0 in the first half with a goal from Tom Louchet (assisted by Mohamed‑Ali Cho) and a second-half goal from Kail Boudache after an assist from Jonathan Clauss, before conceding a late equalizer by Noah Cadiou in stoppage time; this result leaves Nice in 14th place on the table, and the team is preparing for the next match against Stade de Reims on March 15, 2026.

Table analysis for the match between Paris FC x Nice

Paris FC: This game is crucial for Paris FC, which is just above the relegation zone, in 15th place with 23 points. The gap to Nice, a direct rival, is minimal — only 1 point. A victory can greatly help in escaping the dangerous zone of the table, increasing the chances of staying in Ligue 1. Therefore, the team needs this result to ease the pressure and continue fighting against relegation! ⚽🔥

Nice: For Nice, which is in 14th place with 24 points, this match is also vital. The club is very close to Paris FC and, therefore, cannot afford to slip up to avoid making the fight for survival more complicated. Gaining points in this game is important to distance themselves further from the danger zone and ensure more peace of mind in the upcoming rounds. Every point counts in this final stretch! 💪⚽

Summary: A very important game for both teams! Paris FC and Nice are close in the standings, fighting to get away from the relegation zone, and the result of this duel can make all the difference in the fight to stay in Ligue 1. 🚨⚽

Odds and handicap movements for Paris FC x Nice

We will also look at how the odds and handicap have evolved over time. This approach helps capture the market sentiment for the fixture between Paris FC x Nice.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the principal markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Paris FC x Nice

When the best bet on Paris FC x Nice is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488452 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Paris FC worth it?

🔵 Paris FC: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 42.15%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.37. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 420 times – profiting $575.40;
• And would lose other 580 times – having a loss of -$580.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$4.60 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.48% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.27. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – profiting $499.40;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$280.60.

Is betting on Nice worth it?

🔴 Nice: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 350 times – this would give you a profit of $665.00
• And would have lost other 650 times – with a loss of -$650.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$15.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Handicaps analysis for the match Paris FC x Nice

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Paris FC
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Paris FC x Nice

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Paris FC, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Paris FC.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Nice.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Paris FC x Nice

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Paris FC x Nice