PSG x Toulouse Betting tips for November 22 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for PSG x Toulouse, Friday, 22/11/2024

📅 22/11/2024 20:00

PSG 1.30

X 5.75

Toulouse 8.50

Our algorithm has selected this tip for PSG x Toulouse:

🔮 PSG wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on PSG, you can win up to $650.00!

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Important information for your tip for PSG x Toulouse: 👉 If you had bet $100 on PSG in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-100.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Toulouse in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $30.0. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, PSG scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Toulouse scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Toulouse, PSG scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 PSG is a team that likes ball possession. In its last 3 home matches, it had at least 60.00% of possession.

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Analysis from PSG x Toulouse for the France Ligue 1 – 22 of November

When the best bet on PSG x Toulouse is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1225205 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for PSG x Toulouse

Should you bet on PSG?

🔵 PSG: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 86.23%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 860 times – this would give you a profit of $258.00
• And would lose other 140 times – having a loss of -$140.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$118.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 8.61% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 90 times – this would give you a profit of $427.50
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$482.50.

Is it worth betting on Toulouse?

🔴 Toulouse: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.16% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 8.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 50 times – profiting $375.00;
• And would lose other 950 times – having a loss of -$950.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$575.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match PSG x Toulouse

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 PSG
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for PSG x Toulouse

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 PSG and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.75 PSG.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.75 Toulouse.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for PSG x Toulouse

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.25 goals.