Rennes x Toulouse Betting tips for February 28 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Rennes x Toulouse, Saturday, 28/2/2026

📅 28/2/2026 16:00

Rennes 2.24

X 3.30

Toulouse 3.00

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Rennes x Toulouse:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Rennes x Toulouse

The main points for the tip for Rennes x Toulouse:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Rennes in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $388.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Toulouse in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-118.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Rennes conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Rennes conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Toulouse.

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Rennes vs Toulouse:

Lets analyze the match between Rennes and Toulouse at Roazhon Park, the stadium where Rennes plays at home, which is already a positive point for them. According to recent statistics, Rennes averages 2 goals scored per game at home and concedes 1 goal per match. They have a good volume of shots (17 per game) and ball possession (57%), showing control of the game when playing in their stadium.

Toulouse, despite having a similar average of away goals (1 goal), also concedes 1 goal per match and has fewer accurate shots against them (2). Their possession is good (56%), but their recent away matches show difficulties in winning, with only one victory in their last away games.

The median odds indicate approximate normalized implied probabilities: Rennes win ~44%, draw ~30%, Toulouse win ~26%. Adjusting for offensive and defensive statistics of the teams, plus Rennes clear advantage playing at home and their recent positive streak after a coaching change, I would estimate fair probabilities close to: Rennes Win 45%, Draw 28%, Toulouse Win 27%.

Converting these probabilities into fair odds gives something like: 2.22 for Rennes win, 3.57 for draw, 3.70 for Toulouse win. Comparing with the final odds offered by bookmakers (Rennes 2.10 / Draw 3.5 / Toulouse 3.4), we see that the bookmakers are offering slightly less value on the home and away bets compared to the fair calculation here.

The news analysis 📰 shows Rennes is riding high after a big win over PSG even without a fixed coach — that boosts team morale! Toulouse, on the other hand, has been more inconsistent recently with mixed results.

In the table aspect 📈 , Rennes is in sixth place aiming to get closer to European spots, while Toulouse is more comfortably mid-table without immediate pressure — this could influence the motivation of the teams in this important match for the home team to maintain or improve their position.

Analyzing the expected values calculated by the Bets Kenya model, there is a small positive EV only on the home team bet (+1.1%) while the draw (-14%) and away (-6%) do not show significant positive expected value — I agree with this overall view but believe there is still better value in the fair odds presented here, especially considering the current strength of the home team playing at Roazhon Park.

Suggestion: Bet on Rennes to win, as besides favorable statistics, they have a strong motivational factor after beating PSG; current odds pay around 2.10 but my calculation indicates fair value close to 2.22, with a slight positive margin depending on the line chosen.
Avoid bets on draw or away win due to the low expected value found.

⚽️📊💰

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Analysis from Rennes x Toulouse for the France Ligue 1 – 28 of February

Latest news about Rennes x Toulouse

Rennes: Rennes, currently in sixth place in Ligue 1, drew attention by achieving a surprising 3-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain without a coach, a result that shook the title race and caused PSG to lose the league lead to Lens; the clubs next match will be at home against Auxerre, which is in 16th place, on February 22, 2026.

Toulouse: Toulouse has been a mid-table team in Ligue 1 this season, occupying around 10th place in February 2026 after a mixed results streak; the team drew 1-1 at home against Paris FC on February 21, with Marshall Munetsi opening the scoring at 39 minutes and Julian Vignolo equalizing at 87 minutes, while a week earlier they suffered a narrow 1-0 away defeat against Angers on February 8, with the only goal scored by Lilian Raolisoa at 89 minutes.

Table analysis for the match between Rennes x Toulouse

Rennes: Rennes is in 6th place with 37 points, currently securing a spot in the Conference League qualifying phase. The team is close to the European competition qualification zone, and a win against Toulouse could help solidify their position or even attempt to move up, depending on the results of competitors. Therefore, this match is important for Rennes to maintain their good form and continue fighting for international spots. ⚽

Toulouse: Toulouse is in 10th place with 31 points, a bit farther from the European qualification zone but with a considerable gap from relegation. The match against Rennes is relevant to try to climb the table and, who knows, get closer to the continental tournament access positions, which would bring significant gains to the club. The game also has some importance for Toulouse, mainly to keep motivation high and seek a jump in the standings. 🎯

Summary: The Rennes vs Toulouse match is important for both teams, as they aim to secure or improve their positions near the international qualification zone. Every point gained can make a difference in the final stretch of the championship. ⚔️

Odds and handicap movements for Rennes x Toulouse

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Rennes x Toulouse.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Rennes x Toulouse

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Rennes and Toulouse.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1488452 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Should you bet on Rennes?

🔵 Rennes: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.24. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 480 times – profiting $595.20;
• And would lose other 520 times – losing -$520.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$75.20, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $552.00
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Toulouse?

🔴 Toulouse: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.43% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $540.00;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$190.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Rennes x Toulouse

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Rennes
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Rennes x Toulouse

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Rennes and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Rennes.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Toulouse.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Rennes x Toulouse

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Rennes x Toulouse