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Home ยป Predictions ยป France Ligue 1 ยป Strasbourg x Marseille Betting tips for November 25 in France Ligue 1
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 France Ligue 1
Strasbourg Strasbourg
PREDICTION Draw Match Probability 50% 1 X 2
Marseille Marseille
ODD: @3.6 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Strasbourg x Marseille Betting tips for November 25 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Strasbourg x Marseille, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
20:00
Strasbourg Strasbourg
3.80
X
3.60
Marseille Marseille
1.91

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Strasbourg x Marseille:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Tied Match
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Some important points for the tip for Strasbourg x Marseille:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Strasbourg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-285.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Marseille in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-225.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 Marseille matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
๐Ÿ‘‰ Playing as the home team, Strasbourg conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Marseille.

๐Ÿ“Š Check out the analysis from this match on Betfellows: Complete prognostic for Strasbourg x Marseille

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Summary

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Analysis from Strasbourg x Marseille for the France Ligue 1 – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Strasbourg X Marseille – France Ligue 1
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 20:00
๐Ÿ”ต Strasbourg – Winning probability: 11.72% | Fair line: 8.53
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 38.09% | Fair line: 2.63
๐Ÿ”ด Marseille – Winning probability: 50.18% | Fair line: 1.99
โš– Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Strasbourg
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 10.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Strasbourg x Marseille right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1024927 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Strasbourg x Marseille

Is it worth betting on Strasbourg?

๐Ÿ”ต Strasbourg: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 11.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.80. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – profiting $336.00;
  • And would lose other 880 times – having a loss of -$880.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$544.00.

Should you bet on draw?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 38.09% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 380 times – having a profit of $988.00;
  • And would lose other 620 times – having a loss of -$620.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$368.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Marseille?

๐Ÿ”ด Marseille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 50.18% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.91. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 500 times – having a profit of $455.00;
  • And would lose other 500 times – losing -$500.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$45.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Strasbourg x Marseille

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

โš– Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Strasbourg
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Strasbourg x Marseille

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 Strasbourg and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Strasbourg.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Marseille.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Strasbourg x Marseille

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves