AC Milan x Genoa Betting tips for May 5 in Italy Serie A

Our betting tip for AC Milan x Genoa, Sunday, 5/5/2024

📅 5/5/2024 16:00

AC Milan 1.44

X 4.38

Genoa 6.82

Our algorithm has selected this tip for AC Milan x Genoa:

🔮 AC Milan wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AC Milan, you can win up to $720.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for AC Milan x Genoa: 👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-83.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Genoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-200.0. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Genoa, AC Milan scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 road matches, Genoa has not lost any of them. 👉 AC Milan has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Genoa.

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on AC Milan x Genoa?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on AC Milan x Genoa, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from AC Milan x Genoa for the Italy Serie A – 5 of May

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for AC Milan x Genoa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1111522 matches on the betting prognostics platform Betfellows , in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for AC Milan x Genoa

Is it a good idea to bet on AC Milan?

🔵 AC Milan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 71.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.44. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 720 times – having a profit of $316.80;
• And would lose other 280 times – having a loss of -$280.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$36.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.19% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.38. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $642.20
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$167.80.

Is it worth betting on Genoa?

🔴 Genoa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 8.92% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.82. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 90 times – this would give you a profit of $523.80
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$386.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match AC Milan x Genoa

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on soccer betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 AC Milan
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for AC Milan x Genoa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 AC Milan and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 AC Milan.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.0 Genoa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for AC Milan x Genoa

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.