Valencia x CD Alaves Betting tips for May 5 in Spain Primera Liga

Our betting tip for Valencia x CD Alaves, Sunday, 5/5/2024

📅 5/5/2024 16:30

Valencia 2.00

X 3.10

CD Alaves 4.20

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Valencia x CD Alaves:

🔮 Tied Match
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Some important points for the tip for Valencia x CD Alaves: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Valencia in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-315.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on CD Alaves in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-230.0. 👉 CD Alaves did not score any goals in the last 4 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against CD Alaves, Valencia scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 CD Alaves matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, CD Alaves conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Valencia has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against CD Alaves playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for CD Alaves as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Valencia x CD Alaves for the Spain Primera Liga – 5 of May

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Valencia x CD Alaves right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1111522 matches on the database from our soccer prognostics platform, Betfellows, looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Valencia x CD Alaves

Is it a good idea to bet on Valencia?

🔵 Valencia: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 48.55% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 490 times – this would give you a profit of $490.00
• And would lose other 510 times – having a loss of -$510.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$20.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 33.87%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 340 times – profiting $714.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$54.00.

Is betting on CD Alaves worth it?

🔴 CD Alaves: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 17.58%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $576.00;
• And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$244.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Valencia x CD Alaves

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Valencia
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Valencia x CD Alaves

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Valencia, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Valencia.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Valencia x CD Alaves

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.