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Home ยป Predictions ยป Leon x Chivas Guadalajara Betting tips for January 29 in Mexico Liga MX
Wednesday, 29 January 2025, 03h00 Mexico Liga MX
Leon Leon
PREDICTION Chivas Guadalajara Wins Probability 40% 1 X 2
Chivas Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara
ODD: @2.4 Don't miss this prediction!

Leon x Chivas Guadalajara Betting tips for January 29 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Leon x Chivas Guadalajara, Wednesday, 29/1/2025
๐Ÿ“… 29/1/2025
03:00
Leon Leon
2.72
X
3.25
Chivas Guadalajara Chivas Guadalajara
2.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Leon x Chivas Guadalajara:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Chivas Guadalajara wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Chivas Guadalajara, you can win up to $1200.00!

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The main points for the tip for Leon x Chivas Guadalajara:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Leon in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Chivas Guadalajara in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-165.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ Leon did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as home team.
๐Ÿ‘‰ Playing as the home team, Leon conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Chivas Guadalajara.

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Summary

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Analysis from Leon x Chivas Guadalajara for the Mexico Liga MX โ€“ 29 of January

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Leon X Chivas Guadalajara โ€“ Mexico Liga MX
๐Ÿ“… 29 of January, 2025 โ€“ 03:00
๐Ÿ”ต Leon โ€“ Winning probability: 28.52% | Fair line: 3.51
โšช Tied game โ€“ Probability of tied match: 30.74% | Fair line: 3.25
๐Ÿ”ด Chivas Guadalajara โ€“ Winning probability: 40.74% | Fair line: 2.45
โš– Handicap 1ร—2: -0.25 Leon
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Leon and Chivas Guadalajara.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1253705 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1ร—2 market for Leon x Chivas Guadalajara

Is it worth betting on Leon?

๐Ÿ”ต Leon: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.52% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.72. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 290 times โ€“ profiting $498.80;
  • And would lose other 710 times โ€“ losing -$710.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$211.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 30.74% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.25. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 310 times โ€“ profiting $697.50;
  • And would lose other 690 times โ€“ having a loss of -$690.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just ๐Ÿ’ฐ$7.50 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it a good idea to bet on Chivas Guadalajara?

๐Ÿ”ด Chivas Guadalajara: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 40.74% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 410 times โ€“ profiting $574.00;
  • And would have lost other 590 times โ€“ with a loss of -$590.00 because of them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$16.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Leon x Chivas Guadalajara

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

โš– Handicap 1ร—2: -0.25 Leon
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1ร—2 market for Leon x Chivas Guadalajara

โš– Handicap 1ร—2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Leon and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Leon.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1ร—2 is on: 0.0 Leon.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Leon x Chivas Guadalajara

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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