Monterrey x Unam Pumas Betting tips for November 27 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Monterrey x Unam Pumas, Wednesday, 27/11/2024

📅 27/11/2024 01:00

Monterrey 2.05

X 3.40

Unam Pumas 3.50

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Monterrey x Unam Pumas:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Monterrey x Unam Pumas

The main points for the tip for Monterrey x Unam Pumas: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Monterrey in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $60.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Unam Pumas in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $128.0. 👉 Unam Pumas did not concede a goal in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 6 Unam Pumas matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 road matches, Unam Pumas has not lost any of them. 👉 Monterrey has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Unam Pumas playing at home.

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Analysis from Monterrey x Unam Pumas for the Mexico Liga MX – 27 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Monterrey and Unam Pumas.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1226746 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Monterrey x Unam Pumas

Should you bet on Monterrey?

🔵 Monterrey: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 45.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.05. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 460 times – profiting $483.00;
• And would lose other 540 times – having a loss of -$540.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$57.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.81% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $720.00;
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is it worth betting on Unam Pumas?

🔴 Unam Pumas: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 24.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $600.00;
• And would have lost other 760 times – with a loss of -$760.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$160.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Monterrey x Unam Pumas

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Monterrey
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Monterrey x Unam Pumas

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Monterrey, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Monterrey.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Monterrey.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Monterrey x Unam Pumas

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.