Necaxa x Queretaro Betting tips for March 29 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Necaxa x Queretaro, Saturday, 29/3/2025

📅 29/3/2025 01:00

Necaxa 1.58

X 4.00

Queretaro 4.90

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Necaxa x Queretaro:

🔮 Necaxa wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Necaxa, you can win up to $790.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Necaxa x Queretaro: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Necaxa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $20.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Queretaro in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 Queretaro did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Necaxa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Necaxa x Queretaro, with Necaxa as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 Necaxa matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Necaxa conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Queretaro conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Necaxa conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Queretaro. 👉 It is not a good time for Queretaro as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Necaxa x Queretaro for the Mexico Liga MX – 29 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Necaxa x Queretaro right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1290768 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Necaxa x Queretaro

Is it worth betting on Necaxa?

🔵 Necaxa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 71.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.58. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 710 times – this would give you a profit of $411.80
• And would lose other 290 times – having a loss of -$290.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$121.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 16.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – profiting $510.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – losing -$830.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$320.00.

Is betting on Queretaro worth it?

🔴 Queretaro: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 12.04% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 120 times – having a profit of $468.00;
• And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$412.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Necaxa x Queretaro

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Necaxa
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Necaxa x Queretaro

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.25 Necaxa, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Necaxa.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Necaxa.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Necaxa x Queretaro

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.