Necaxa x Tijuana Betting tips for October 19 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Necaxa x Tijuana, Saturday, 19/10/2024

📅 19/10/2024 03:00

Necaxa 1.95

X 3.54

Tijuana 3.45

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Necaxa x Tijuana:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Necaxa x Tijuana

The main points for the tip for Necaxa x Tijuana: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Necaxa in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $210.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Tijuana in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Necaxa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Tijuana, Necaxa scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Tijuana conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Necaxa has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Tijuana playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Tijuana as away team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last away matches.

Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Necaxa x Tijuana?

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Analysis from Necaxa x Tijuana for the Mexico Liga MX – 19 of October

When the best bet on Necaxa x Tijuana is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1203336 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Necaxa x Tijuana

Should you bet on Necaxa?

🔵 Necaxa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 49.75% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 500 times – this would give you a profit of $475.00
• And would have lost other 500 times – with a loss of -$500.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$25.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 25.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.54. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $660.40
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$79.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on Tijuana?

🔴 Tijuana: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.72%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $612.50
• And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$137.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Necaxa x Tijuana

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Necaxa
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Necaxa x Tijuana

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Necaxa and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Necaxa.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Tijuana.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Necaxa x Tijuana

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.