Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal Betting tips for December 28 in Qatar Stars League

Our betting tip for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal, Sunday, 28/12/2025

📅 28/12/2025 16:30

Al-Ahli Doha 1.88

X 3.62

Umm Salal 3.29

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal

Important information for your tip for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Al-Ahli Doha in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Al-Ahli Doha scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Umm Salal scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Al-Ahli Doha matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 Umm Salal matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Al-Ahli Doha conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Umm Salal conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Al-Ahli Doha conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Umm Salal.

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Analysis from Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal for the Qatar Stars League – 28 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1456088 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal

Should you bet on Al-Ahli Doha?

🔵 Al-Ahli Doha: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 55.31% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.88. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 550 times – profiting $484.00;
• And would lose other 450 times – having a loss of -$450.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$34.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 180 times – having a profit of $471.60;
• And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$348.40.

Is it a good idea to bet on Umm Salal?

🔴 Umm Salal: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.31% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.29. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $595.40;
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$144.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Al-Ahli Doha
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Al-Ahli Doha and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Al-Ahli Doha.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Al-Ahli Doha x Umm Salal

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.